UK Retail Futures 2011: Sector Summary
Verdict Research Limited, March 2007, Pages: 233
Retailers in the UK face unprecedented challenges. Most have experienced weak demand growth over the past decade yet price competition has been fierce and margins have also been squeezed by a host of operating cost increases. In such testing conditions knowing how the market will develop over the next five years is of paramount commercial importance.
Scope
Forecasts for whole of UK retail for consumer spending, store sales, store numbers, space, sales densities with summary breakdown by channel Market value and growth, inflation 1996-2006 with annual forecasts to 2011 for 10 retail sectors Specialists sales, space, like-for-like growth, sales densities and store numbers 1996-2006 with annual forecasts to 2011 for each retail sector Channels of distribution analysis for 2005, 2006 and 2011 and full discussion of issues for each retail sector
Highlights
The UK retail market is set to increase in size by 15.1% over the next five years, taking its value to £312.8bn. This is a slower rate of growth than the 17.3% it produced in the last five years and against a background of rising operating cost inflation is certain to lead to increased consolidation and a further shakeout of weaker operators. Growth in 2007 will be slightly down on 2006. Following a December surge in spending in 2006, which helped lift annual retail expenditure growth to 2.9% after soft demand through much of the year, we expect retail expenditure to increase by just 2.8% in 2007. The electricals sector will be the best performer by a considerable distance over the next five years. Growth of 24.1% is a particularly strong performance in light of wider economic and social factors and makes electricals one of only three sectors to experience faster growth than over the previous five years.
Reasons to Purchase
Plan for the future use this report to plan strategies that will help you compete effectively against rivals and adapt to changing market conditions Detailed category forecasts allow you to quantify and exploit opportunities in fast growing categories and avoid over-investment in weaker segments. Evaluate your current position with regard to the market's future growth prospects
CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15
Key Findings 15
Main Conclusions 16
CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY 21
Consumer Spending 21
Specialists Sales 23
Space 25
Sales Densities 27
Sectors 29
CHAPTER 3 SECTOR ANALYSIS 30
Introduction 30
Books, News & Stationery 31
Forecast Summary 31
Channels of Distribution 34
Specialists Retail Sales 35
Consumer Spending 37
Clothing & Footwear 40
Forecast Summary 40
Channels of Distribution 44
Clothing Specialists Retail Sales 48
Footwear Specialists Retail Sales 50
Consumer Spending 52
DIY & Gardening 59
Forecast Summary 59
Channels of Distribution 63
Specialists Retail Sales 66
Consumer Spending 70
Electricals 76
Forecast Summary 76
Channels of Distribution 79
Specialists Retail Sales 82
Consumer Spending 86
Food & Grocery 90
Forecast Summary 90
Channels of Distribution 92
Specialists Retail Sales 96
Consumer Spending 99
Furniture & Floorcoverings 106
Forecast Summary 106
Channels of Distribution 109
Specialists Retail Sales 112
Consumer Spending 115
Health & Beauty 119
Forecast Summary 119
Channels of Distribution 122
Specialists Retail Sales 126
Consumer Spending 128
Homewares 133
Forecast Summary 133
Channels of Distribution 135
Consumer Spending 139
Mail Order 143
Forecast Summary 143
Channels of Distribution 145
Specialists Retail Sales 148
Music & Video 149
Forecast Summary 149
Channels of Distribution 152
Channels of Distribution 152
Specialists Retail Sales 155
Consumer Spending 158
CHAPTER 4 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS 161
GDP 164
Earnings & Disposable Income 165
Employment 169
Inflation 172
Exchange Rates 175
Interest Rates 178
Savings Ratio 180
Consumer Debt 181
Equities 184
House Price Inflation 186
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 189
Housing Transactions 191
CHAPTER 5 UK RETAILING FORECASTS 194
Retail Expenditure 1996-2011 194
Sales by Location 1996-2011 200
Sources of Growth 1996-2011 204
Store Numbers by Location 1996-2011 208
Space by Location 1996-2011 210
Sales Density by Location 1996-2011 213
Average Store Size 1996-2011 215
Average Store Sales 1996-2011 216
CHAPTER 6 MARKET DEFINITIONS 219
Books, News & Stationery 219
Clothing & Footwear 220
DIY & Gardening 221
Electricals 222
Food & Grocery 223
Furniture & Floorcoverings 224
Health & Beauty 225
Homewares 226
Mail Order 227
Music & Video 228
CHAPTER 7 GLOSSARY 229
Terminology 229
Location Definitions 229
Forecasting Methodology 231
Abbreviations 233
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Sector forecast summaries 2006-2011 29
Table 2: Sector analysis features 1996-2011 30
Table 3: Books, news & stationery key numbers 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 31
Table 4: Books, news & stationery key growth rates 1996-01, 2001-06 and
2006-11 31
Table 5: Books, news & stationery specialists sales 1996-2011 35
Table 6: Sources of growth for books, news & stationery specialists 1996-2011 36
Table 7: Total books, news & stationery expenditure 1996-2011 37
Table 8: Books, news & stationery expenditure analysis 2006-2011 38
Table 9: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary 2001, 2006 & 2011 40
Table 10: Clothing summary 2001, 2006 & 2011 42
Table 11: Footwear summary 2001, 2006 & 2011 42
Table 12: Clothing specialists sales 1996-2011 48
Table 13: Sources of growth for clothing specialists 1996-2011 49
Table 14: Footwear specialists sales 1996-2011 50
Table 15: Sources of growth for footwear specialists 1996-2011 51
Table 16: Total clothing & footwear expenditure 1996-2011 52
Table 17: Clothing & footwear expenditure analysis 2006-2011 53
Table 18: DIY & gardening expenditure summary 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 59
Table 19: DIY specialists summary 2001, 2006 and 2011 61
Table 20: DIY specialists sales 1996-2011 66
Table 21: Sources of growth for UK DIY specialists 1996-2011 68
Table 22: Total DIY & gardening expenditure 1996-2011 70
Table 23: DIY expenditure analysis 2006-2011 71
Table 24: Gardening expenditure analysis 2006-2011 74
Table 25: Electricals expenditure summary 2001, 2006 & 2011 76
Table 26: Electricals specialists summary 2001, 2006 and 2011 77
Table 27: Electricals specialists sales 1996-2011 82
Table 28: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1996-2011 84
Table 29: Total electricals expenditure 1996-2011 86
Table 30: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011 87
Table 31: White goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011 88
Table 32: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011 89
Table 33: Food & grocery key numbers 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011 90
Table 34: All food & grocery specialists sales 1996-2011 96
Table 35: Sources of growth for UK food & grocery retailers 1996-2011 97
Table 36: Total food & grocery consumer expenditure 1996-2011 99
Table 37: Food expenditure analysis 2006-2011 100
Table 38: Alcoholic drinks & soft drinks expenditure analysis 2006-2011 102
Table 39: Tobacco & non-durable household goods expenditure analysis 2006-
2011 104
Table 40: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure summary 1996, 2001, 2006
and 2011 106
Table 41: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists summaries 2001, 2006 and
2011 107
Table 42: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1996-2011 112
Table 43: Sources of growth for UK furniture & floorcoverings specialists 1996-
2011 113
Table 44: Total furniture & floorcoverings expenditure 1996-2011 115
Table 45: Furniture expenditure analysis 2006-2011 116
Table 46: Floorcoverings expenditure analysis 2006-2011 118
Table 47: Health & beauty summary data – expenditure 2001, 2006 & 2011 119
Table 48: Health & beauty summary data – specialists sales 2001, 2006 & 2011 120
Table 49: All sales through health & beauty specialists 1996-2011 126
Table 50: Sources of growth for health & beauty specialists 1996-2011 127
Table 51: Total health & beauty expenditure 1996-2011 128
Table 52: Health & beauty category analysis 2006-2011 129
Table 53: Homewares expenditure summary 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 133
Table 54: Total homewares expenditure 1996-2011 139
Table 55: Homewares expenditure analysis 2006-2011 140
Table 56: Mail order specialists summary 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 143
Table 57: Mail order specialists sales 1996-2011 148
Table 58: Music & video key numbers 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 149
Table 59: Music & video key growth rates 1996-01, 2001-06 and 2006-11 149
Table 60: Music & video specialists sales 1996-2011 155
Table 61: Sources of growth for music & video specialists 1996-2011 157
Table 62: Total music & video expenditure 1996-2011 158
Table 63: Music & video expenditure analysis 2006-2011 159
Table 64: Economic drivers for retail 2007 161
Table 65: Measures of inflation 2007 173
Table 66: Total consumer retail expenditure 1996-2011 194
Table 67: Forecast chronology 2006-2011 198
Table 68: Sales by location 1996-2011 201
Table 69: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1996-2011 205
Table 70: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1996-2011 206
Table 71: Store numbers 1996-2011 208
Table 72: Space by location 1996-2011 211
Table 73: Sales densities by location at current prices 1996-2011 213
Table 74: Average store size by location 1996-2011 215
Table 75: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1996-2011 217
Table 76: Books, news & stationery market definition 2007 219
Table 77: Clothing & footwear market definition 2007 220
Table 78: DIY & gardening market definition 2007 221
Table 79: Electricals market definition 2007 222
Table 80: Food & grocery market definition 2007 223
Table 81: Furniture & floorcoverings market definition 2007 224
Table 82: Health & beauty market definition 2007 225
Table 83: Homewares market definition 2007 226
Table 84: Mail Order market definition 2007 227
Table 85: Music & video market definition 2007 228
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Consumer expenditure growth 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 21
Figure 2: Specialists sales growth 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 23
Figure 3: Specialists space growth 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 25
Figure 4: Sales density growth (current prices) 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 27
Figure 5: Books, news & stationery channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 34
Figure 6: Clothing & footwear channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 44
Figure 7: Changes in shares of clothing & footwear market 2011 on 2006 45
Figure 8: DIY & gardening channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 63
Figure 9: Changes in shares of major channels in the DIY & gardening market
2011 on 2006 64
Figure 10: Electricals channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 79
Figure 11: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals
market 2011 on 2006 80
Figure 12: Food & grocery category growth prospects 2005, 2006 & 2011 92
Figure 13: Food & grocery channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 93
Figure 14: Channels of distribution – furniture & floorcoverings 2005, 2006 &
2011 109
Figure 15: Changes in shares of major channels in the furniture & floorcoverings
market 2011 on 2006 110
Figure 16: Health & beauty channels of distribution 2005, 2006 and 2011 122
Figure 17: Changes in shares of health & beauty market 2011 on 2006 123
Figure 18: Homewares channels of distribution 2005, 2006 and 2011 135
Figure 19: Forecast changes in shares of homewares market major channels
2011 on 2006 136
Figure 20: Mail Order channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 145
Figure 21: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the mail order
market 2011 on 2006 146
Figure 22: Music & video channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011 152
Figure 23: Changes in shares of major channels in the music & video market
2011 on 2006 153
Figure 24: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1996-
2011 164
Figure 25: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1996-2011 165
Figure 26: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1996-
2011 167
Figure 27: UK employment 1996-2011 169
Figure 28: UK unemployment 1996-2011 170
Figure 29: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1996-2011 172
Figure 30: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1996-2011 176
Figure 31: UK average base rates 1997-2007e 178
Figure 32: Savings ratio 1996-2011 180
Figure 33: Growth in consumer debt 1996-2011 181
Figure 34: FTSE 100 Index 1996-2011 184
Figure 35: UK house price inflation 1996-2011 186
Figure 36: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 1996-2011 189
Figure 37: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1996-2011 192
Table of Contents
Figure 38: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1996-2005
and forecast to 2011 196
Figure 39: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1995-2005
and forecast to 2011 197
Figure 40: Retail spending by location 2006 and 2011 200
Figure 41: Share of turnover by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011 203
Figure 42: % share of store numbers by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011 210
Figure 43: Verdict forecasting methodology 2007 232
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