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Digital Music Futures 2007-2011

Portio Research, January 2007, Pages: 153

Looking at the rapidly growing digital music market and the convergence of the music industry with the world of mobile communications. This exciting new market study offers you in-depth analysis of the converging digital music market place, looking at the device market AND the digital download market. As major brands from the mobile world collide with counterparts from the music and consumer electronics industries, so the battle for supremacy will commence. We analyse this market and suggest how almost everyone can come out winners.

KEY FEATURES OF THIS NEW MARKET REPORT:
- Understand the changing dynamics of the music retail industry
- Analyse the shift from physical CD sales to digital downloads
- Examine the rising force in MP3-enabled mobile phones
- Understand the likely outcome of the upcoming 'Clash of the Titans'
- Study market share and competitive positioning among major players such as Apple, Warner Music, Microsoft, Verizon, Universal, Sony BMG, Nokia, Vodafone, Motorola, Sony Ericsson and many more
- Analyse the relationships between these players and how markets might develop to a win-win situation for all
- Look at consumer behaviour and consider possible future scenarios

Executive Summary
Music Playing Devices
Pricing
Music content
Music portals
Music CD retailing in-store and via the internet
Mobile Handset vendors
Usability
Advertising
Mobile music versus Internet music
Clash of the Titans

Introduction
Purpose of the Study
Research Methodology
- Device Forecasting
- Digital Music forecasting
- Current Adoption Rate

Demographic and Geographic issues
Introduction
Digital Infrastructure
Wealth
The link between youth and music
Growing Populations
- What music will the Chinese and Indians want to listen to?
Conclusions

Digital music consumption media
Solid state music players
- iPods
- Other MP3 Players
- MP3 Player Summary

Mobile Handsets

Music enabled mobile handsets
- Total Mobile handset volumes
- Music enabled mobile phones in Northern and Western Europe
- Music enabled mobile phones in the Middle East and Africa
- Music enabled mobile phones in Developed Asia Pacific Countries
- Music enabled mobile phones in Developing Asia Pacific Countries
- Music enabled mobile phones in North America
- Music enabled mobile phones in Central and Latin America
- Low functionality phones
- Average replacement rates of phones
- Problems with music-enabled handsets

Mobile Games Consoles
Laptops and other portable computers
Digital Audio Broadcast radio

Commercial Structure of Music Industry
Record Labels
Physical Retail Music Sales
Digital Retail Music
- Internet
- Mobile ‘Over-the-Air’ Music Download Providers
- Peer-to-Peer Digital Music
- Illegal Music sharing (e.g. Using Limewire)

Digital Music Pricing
Internet Music Pricing
- iTunes Store Prices
- Zune pricing
- Napster
- eMusic
- Real Music Store
- Real Rhapsody
- Nokia
Mobile Operator Internet Portals
- Vodafone
- 3
Mobile Over-the-air Music Prices
- Per track payment model
- Bundled payment model
Advertising subsidized music
Per track versus Bundling price models
- Assumptions
Future pricing trends

Music Market Size and Share
Digital Music Market
- Internet
- Mobile OTA
- Mobile OTA Market in Northern & Western Europe
- Mobile OTA Market in Central & Eastern Europe
- Mobile OTA Market in Middle East and Africa
- Mobile OTA Market in Asia Pacific Developed Region
- Mobile OTA Market for Asia Pacific Developing Region
- Mobile OTA Market in North America
- Mobile OTA Market in Latin America
Ringtones

Clash of the Titans: The Battle for Digital Music
Introduction
- Music Artists
- Record Labels
- Social Network Websites
- Mobile Network Operators (MNO) and music over the air (OTA)
- On-line music portals
- Retailers (Music stores, super markets and internet sales)
- MP3 devices
- MP3-enabled Handsets

The battle for content: Record Labels and Social Networking Websites
- Rivalry between record labels
- The threat from MySpace, YouTube and other Social Networking Websites
- The threat from digital music
- The future of content

Mobile Network Operators
- NTT DoCoMo
- SK Telecom
- KDDI
- Verizon
- Sprint Nextel
- Cingular
- 3
- Vodafone
- The Mobile Operators Digital Music Battleground

Online Music Portals
- Introduction
- iTunes Store
- Napster
- eMusic
- Real
- Yahoo! Music
- Future of Music Portals

Clash of the retailers
- Introduction
- Opportunities for Specialist music shops
- Opportunities for Supermarkets and chains
- What is the future for Amazon and the other on-line sellers?
- The future for retailers in the digital music age

Mobile Handset Vendors
- Introduction
- Key Players in the Market
- The Battle of Brands
- Who Will Win?

MP3 Player Manufacturers
- Apple iPod
- Microsoft Zune
- Other Brands
- The Battle for MP3 Device Supremacy and the Future of the MP3 Player

Industry issues
The music market will grow again driven by brand, device and promotional spend
Don’t be greedy
Music Piracy
The future role and impact of advertising and other ways of subsidizing consumer music
Device substitution or proliferation
Music and Transport - Just a place to listen? Or a place to buy too?
The threat to branded digital music from YouTube, MySpace and other user generated music (and content)
Mergers and Acquisitions

Conclusions

Glossary
Companies mentioned in this report

Following six years of decline from a high of USD$39.7 billion in 2000 to just USD$32.1 billion in 2006, we believe that the value of the global music market is set to reverse and grow again back to USD$38.8 by 2011. In 2006 the major mobile handset manufacturers (Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, LG and others) have been shipping MP3 enabled handsets in some volumes. At the same time, many mobile network operators (MNOs) have started to distribute MP3 enabled phones and launch OTA (over-the-air) music download services (Vodafone, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile, Cingular, DoCoMo, SKT, O2, Orange and many more) thus creating a new digital music consumption market.

In the portable digital music device market, Apple has continued to produce new models of its highly successful iPod, and while the iPod leads the market, alternative MP3 players have continued to proliferate world wide. In November 2006, Microsoft launched its rival digital music player – Zune. Sales so far have not been outstanding, but this signifies a major move by a very major player, and this has brought further interest to the digital music player market.

On the Internet, the growth of social networking sites has been astronomical, and two of the most interesting new sites where new artists could promote their songs and videos were bought by global brands. Analysts could not initially understand why News Corporation bought MySpace for USD$560m in 2005. However, this looked positively cheap compared to the USD$1.65bn that Google paid for YouTube in October 2006.

Almost every major development in the global music industry in recent years has been with digital music. As many big brands have entered the market with significant technical experience and substantial marketing budgets, we see the next few years as the ‘Clash of the Titans’. As these huge brand names - music companies, consumer electronics manufacturers, mobile network operators, mobile handset vendors and of course all manner of advertisers - meet and compete in this growing market, this report looks at how these players are positioned to build themselves presence in the digital music market over the next five years. No doubt there will be winners and losers in this battle, but the overall effect of the interest of so many major global corporations will be renewed market growth. This report forecasts the expansion of the digital music market between 2007-2011.

Purpose of this study:
The purpose of this study is to forecast the future market for digital music for the different competing technologies.

Offering you the exceptional value of 2 reports for the price of 1, the study looks at both the consumer device market and the content (music downloads) market.

- Amp’d Mobile
- Bell Canada
- China Mobile
- Cingular Wireless
- CMHK
- CSL
- Era
- Globe
- Halebop
- Hutchinson 3G
- KDDI
- LG Telecom
- Movistar
- MTS Russia
- NTTDoCoMo
- O2
- Orange
- SaskTel
- Singtel
- SK Telecom
- Sprint Nextel
- StarHub
- Swisscom
- Telecom Personal
- Telefonica Moviles
- Telenor Mobile
- Three Sweden
- TMN
- T-Mobile
- Verizon Wireless
- Vimpelcom
- Vodafone
- Vodafone Australia
- Vodafone Germany
- Vodafone New Zealand
- Vodafone Portugal
- 3
- BenQ
- LG Electronics
- Motorola
- Nokia
- Samsung
- Siemens
- SonyEricsson
- Adidas
- AllofMP3
- Amazon
- AOL
- Apple Computers
- Archos
- Archos
- BigW
- Blue Lithium
- Borders
- Britannia Music
- Cisco
- Coca Cola
- Creative
- Disk Union
- EMI Group
- eMusic
- Fuji
- Google
- Grokster
- Groove Mobile
- HMV
- iMesh
- iO Global
- iRiver
- Jumptap
- Kazzaa
- Kodak
- Konica Minolta
- Limewire
- McDonalds
- Microsoft
- MTV
- Music Net
- MySpace
- Napster
- News Corp
- Nike
- Nikon
- Olympus
- PayPal
- Pentax
- Quigo
- Real Networks
- RealRhapsody
- Rebok
- Roxio
- SanDisk
- Sony BMG
- Sony
- Spiral Frog
- Third Screen Media
- Tower Records
- Universal
- Virgin Records
- Warner
- Wind-Up
- Woolworths
- Xerox
- Yahoo!
- YouTube

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