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DC-DC Converter Market Trends, Worldwide Forecasts and Competitive Environment: A White Paper Derived from "DC-DC Converter Modules And ICs, Ninth Edition"


Description: This 24-page white paper reports the highlights from our comprehensive look at the dc-dc converter market. Conditions in the dc-dc converter market change regularly. Currently, this market is rife with dynamics that will create shifts that provide both opportunities and threats for power supply makers. In the past, this market has thrived on innovation, which provided growth for the power supply industry, but today a number of economic and business model changes provide a plethora of possibilities. Industry consolidation, both in end markets and in the dc-dc converter market, is creating a number of disruptions.

Specifically, this white paper provides insights into consolidation in the dc-dc power supply industry; revenue and pricing issues; modules vs. discretes. Worldwide forecasts are provided for: Converter/Regulator ICs; DC-DC Converter Modules by Region, DC-DC Converter Modules by Input Voltage. Additionally, the market share and estimated 2006 revenue is given for each of the top ten dc-dc converter module makers. These data are derived from our comprehensive evaluation of this market found in the 305-page report, "DC-DC Converters: Global Market Forecasts, Technology Trends & Competitive Environment, Ninth Edition."

This report encompasses the following areas:

-Estimates are provided for the potential worldwide market for dc-dc converter modules in units, dollars and pricing from 2006 to 2011.
-Estimates are provided for the potential worldwide market for dc-dc converter/regulator ICs in units from 2006 to 2011.
-Identification and discussion of general dc-dc converter market characteristics, drivers and trends.
-Provides a detailed competitive analysis of dc-dc converter module companies, including market share.

Methodology

The data presented in this report are derived from a comprehensive study of the worldwide dc-dc converter market. The detailed forecasts are based on primary data gathered in discussions with major users of dc-dc converters in all regions of the world. All original equipment manufacturer (OEM) consumption data were gathered on a confidential basis. These consumption data were supplemented with a few discussions with major makers of dc-dc converters. It should be emphasized that the input to this study was the result of firsthand discussions with OEM users of dc-dc converters. The conversations with dc-dc converter makers were limited and secondary in importance in the preparation of this report. Of greater importance were discussions with makers of key system components, such as advanced microprocessors, which are primary drivers of key trends in the dc-dc converter market.

Primary data were obtained using “open questionnaires.” A combination of telephone and in-person interviews were conducted. In-person interviews were conducted either in the plant where the individual works or at various trade shows. The interviews conducted at trade shows were typically performed in a more informal atmosphere and were generally very successful in gathering good quantities of hard data and insights from the individuals being interviewed. All interviews conducted in the course of this research were performed on a confidential basis. The data were used in combination with the responses from all other respondents.

The primary and secondary research included all possible major application areas for dc-dc converters. The data-gathering methodology included primary research in all regions worldwide and was not limited in any way to North America. Secondary research was performed using all available published sources including, but not limited to, nonproprietary, previously performed and related work, all available trade journals, proceedings from related trade conferences, previous industry studies, annual reports, 10Ks, advertising, product literature, and so on.

All the forecasts in this report are done on Excel worksheets, using Excel formulas. A formula is an equation that performs operations on worksheet data. The use of formulas in calculations can generate decimals, which require rounding to the nearest significant figure. As a result of rounding, the sum of a set of numbers may be different from what the numbers appear to add up to. This is because when the Excel spreadsheet adds up the numbers, it takes into account the decimals that are not shown in the numbers. The reason we choose to leave the sums as they are is to retain the formulas in the spreadsheet and maintain the integrity of statistical analysis.


Contents: Introduction

Market Trends

Business Models

Consolidation of the Power Supply Industry

Revenue and Pricing Issues

Second Sourcing

Packaging Trends

Modules versus Discretes

Worldwide Forecasts

DC-DC Converter IC Forecasts

DC-DC Converter Module Forecasts

Regional Forecasts

Input Voltage Forecasts

Competitive Environment

Market Share

List of Exhibits

Table 1 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter/Regulator ICs, by Topology (millions of units)
Table 2 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter Module Market, by Region ($ market share)
Table 3 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter Module Market, by Input Voltage (millions of dollars)
Table 4 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter Module Companies by Top Ten Market Share (estimated revenue by millions and estimated market share)

Graph 1 – North America Power Supply Market, Ratio of 2000/2001 Peak sales to Current Sales (selected companies, sales in dollars)
Graph 2 – Advertised Pricing for DC-DC POL Converters ($ per Amp)
Graph 3 – Normalized Pricing for DC-DC POL Converters ($ per Amp)
Graph 4 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter/Regulator ICs, By Topology (millions of units)
Graph 5 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter Module Market, By Region ($ market share)
Graph 6 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter Module Market, by Input Voltage (millions of dollars)
Graph 7 – Worldwide DC-DC Converter Module Companies by Top Ten Market Share


Summary: The dc-dc converter module market has been subject to a number of factors over the past couple of years that have brought down Darnell’s projections for dollar sales between 2006 and 2011. In our previous edition of this report (2005), the worldwide dollar market for dc-dc converter modules was expected to be approximately $3.6 billion in 2006. In this edition, that number has been lowered to approximately $3.2 billion in 2006. This is a 12.5% drop, and it is due to several business and economic factors in the dc-dc converter market. These factors differ, depending on whether you’re looking at the brick market or the nonisolated market.

Unit sales for dc-dc converter modules have been flat, and we reduced our previous 2006 worldwide forecast by 2% for the current report (from 104.3 million to 102.0 million units). So the 12.5% revenue drop cannot be explained by declining unit sales. What we could not have predicted was that Delta Electronics has grown about 40% a year for two consecutive years. Delta has been increasing market share in the dc-dc converter market, and its Power Systems Business Group II has grown from about 9% to 16% of its business. In the higher-wattage brick segments (not including bus converters), downward pressure has pushed prices well below the $0.28/W reported in our 2005 report. Delta is bringing its competitive, ac-dc power supply pricing model to the dc-dc converter module world. Mergers such as Emerson and Artesyn will simply reinforce these pricing pressures.

Further affecting the revenue landscape is the maturity of the Intermediate Bus Architecture (IBA). Although this technology once drove sales of dc-dc converters, IBA adoption has flattened out as a result of normal market dynamics. Since any continued adoption of the IBA will not be large enough to ramp up dc-dc converter sales on its own, business trends will have to be the primary driver of the dc-dc converter industry over the next two years, which will result in a challenging market environment for makers of dc-dc converter modules.


Companies Mentioned -Acbel PolyTech -Ambit Microsystems -Artesyn -Ascom Energy Systems -Astec -Autronic -Avansys -Bel Fuse -C&D Technologies -Celab -Celestica -Cherokee International -Cincon Electrical -Cosel USA -Datel -Delta -Densei-Lambda -EMC -Emerson -Enpirion -Ericsson -Ericsson Simtek Electronics -ETA USA -GAIA Converters -Harmer + Simmons SAS -IBEK Electronics -IKOR -Infineon -Invensys -Lambda -Linear Technology -Lite-On -Magnetek -Marconi -Martek Power -Murata Manufacturing -NetPower Technologies -Power-One -Shindengen Electric -SL Industries -SynQor -Taiyo Yuden USA -Tamura -TDK -TDK Innoveta -TDK-Lambda -Texas Instruments -Traco Electronics -Transistor Devices Inc -Tyco -Valere -Vicor -Vishay Intertechnology -Wall Industries -Yutaka Electric


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