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0 Summary 1 The broadband market in CEE has much room for growth 1.1 In CEE broadband penetration is low and DSL is underdeveloped 1.2 The key market driver is changing from availability to affordability 1.3 Next-generation access technologies are already beginning to be rolled out 2 LLUB and bitstream are at a nascent stage in CEE 2.1 Alternative players can, in principle, take on different levels of involvement in infrastructure 2.2 Although measures to introduce competition in DSL have been introduced in CEE, they have generally had little effect 2.3 Incumbents in CEE are obstructing LLUB, using tactics similar to those used in the past by operators in Western Europe 3 LLUB implementation is patchy 3.1 Bulgaria 3.2 Czech Republic 3.3 Estonia 3.4 Hungary 3.5 Latvia 3.6 Lithuania 3.7 Poland 3.8 Romania 3.9 Slovakia 3.10 Slovenia 4 The commercial value of LLUB to alternative DSL players depends critically on timing 4.1 The widespread use of LLUB can have a significant impact on the whole broadband market 4.2 Mobile operators could yet have a major influence on the DSL market 4.3 DTH broadcasters could also have a strong influence over the development of DSL 4.4 Next-generation access networks will pose new challenges for unbundlers Actions Figures and tables Figure 1.1: Broadband site penetration in CEE, by country, September 2004–September 2006 Figure 1.2: Broadband site penetration versus GDP per capita in CEE, by country, September 2006 Figure 1.3: Broadband site penetration by country, CEE versus Western Europe, September 2006 Figure 1.4: Broadband access technology split, CEE versus Western Europe, September 2001 and September 2006 Figure 1.5: Broadband access technology split in CEE, by country, September 2006 Figure 1.6: Retail price of the cheapest residential DSL services (512kbit/s and 2Mbit/s) provided by the incumbent ISP in each country in CEE, February 2007 Figure 1.7: Affordability and spend indicators for basic DSL and telecoms services in CEE, by country, 2006 Figure 2.1: Incumbent’s share of the retail broadband market by country, CEE versus Western Europe, September 2006 Figure 2.2: Levels of interconnection within the DSL network Figure 2.3: The altnet investment ladder Figure 2.4: Proportion of DSL connections attributable to altnets and split of connections by type of wholesale access in CEE, by country, September 2006 Figure 2.5: Proportion of DSL connections attributable to altnets and split of connections by type of wholesale access in Western Europe, by country, September 2006 Figure 2.6: Number of unbundled loops in CEE, by country, September 2006 Figure 2.7: Monthly price of shared access loops in CEE, by country, December 2004–March 2007 Figure 2.8: Monthly price of shared access loops in major Western European markets, by country, June 2003–March 2007 Figure 2.9: Monthly price of fully unbundled loops in CEE, by country, December 2004–March 2007 Figure 2.10: Monthly price of fully unbundled loops in major Western European markets, by country, June 2003–March 2007 Figure 2.11: Connection fee for shared access loops in CEE, by country, December 2004–March 2007 Figure 4.1: Broadband site penetration in CEE, with LLUB take-off in 2007 versus 2008 Figure 4.2: Total broadband spend in CEE, with LLUB take-off in 2007 versus 2008 Figure 4.3: Cumulative value of the altnet DSL market in CEE in 2010, by country, with LLUB take-off in 2007 versus 2008 Figure 4.4: Proportion of mobile-only households in CEE, by country, 2006 Figure 4.5: DTH household penetration in CEE, by country, 2006 Table 1.1: Major roll-outs of next-generation access technologies in CEE Table 2.1: Regulatory status of LLUB and bitstream in CEE, February 2007 Table 3.1: Status of the broadband market in Bulgaria, September 2006 Table 3.2: LLUB prices in Bulgaria, March 2007 Table 3.3: Status of the broadband market in the Czech Republic, September 2006 Table 3.4: LLUB prices in the Czech Republic, March 2007 Table 3.5: Status of the broadband market in Estonia, September 2006 Table 3.6: LLUB prices in Estonia, March 2007 Table 3.7: Status of the broadband market in Hungary, September 2006 Table 3.8: LLUB prices in Hungary, March 2007 Table 3.9: Status of the broadband market in Latvia, September 2006 Table 3.10: LLUB prices in Latvia, March 2007 Table 3.11: Status of the broadband market in Lithuania, September 2006 Table 3.12: LLUB prices in Lithuania, March 2007 Table 3.13: Status of the broadband market in Poland, September 2006 Table 3.14: LLUB prices in Poland, March 2007 Table 3.15: Status of the broadband market in Romania, September 2006 Table 3.16: LLUB prices in Romania, March 2007 Table 3.17: Status of the broadband market in Slovakia, September 2006 Table 3.18: LLUB prices in Slovakia, March 2007 Table 3.19: Status of the broadband market in Slovenia, September 2006 Table 3.20: LLUB prices in Slovenia, March 2007