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European Long-Term Insurance Market Assessment 2006


Description: The European long-term insurance industry faces two problems: a universal rise in the dependency ratio and government regulations that are overly restrictive. Although these issues are acutely pension-related, they also affect attitudes towards life insurance. People are living longer, but their children are not reproducing at a rate to sustain the current population levels in Europe. Since the present generation pays the pensions of the preceding generation, there is a growing problem of affordability.

Solutions to these problems include raising taxes, raising employer contributions, raising employee contributions, increasing productivity, raising the age of retirement and increasing the role of the private sector.

This report examines the situation for the EU as a whole and focuses on seven countries in particular: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. Demographic data confirm that all countries are experiencing static or falling population levels, moderated only by migrants, who are internal to the EU. Most of the countries profiled in this report have experienced slow population growth. Economic conditions are recovering from the stock-market falls of 2000 to 2003, when several major providers were severely hit through their investments in equities. Inflation is low, but positive, and is a potential threat.

The density of life insurance penetration differs dramatically between countries, reflecting strong national differences. This may be due to cultural differences, or to government regulations that `crowd out' the private sector. In addition, life insurance premiums have recovered fast in some countries since the dramatic drop in interest in 2000 to 2003, boosted by the introduction of innovative life insurance products. Insurance companies are expected to continue to grow and re-establish their reputations under the stricter regulatory regimes from 2006 to 2010.

Pension provision also differs between countries, where there is a clear negative relationship between the universality and generosity of state schemes on the one hand, and private provision of pensions on the other. If workers believe that the State will provide an adequate pension in retirement, they will not make provisions for themselves.

Governments in most countries are beginning to take measures to ameliorate the crisis. In most cases, these involve lowering the benefit levels, increasing contribution rates and withdrawing incentives for early retirement. In addition, taxation measures are common. In some countries, the introduction of private-sector pension providers has taken place, notably in the Netherlands and Spain. In Germany, however, this transition has proved problematic.

Key Note's analysis of individual firms shows that they are able to take advantage of any easing of restrictions by offering attractive products and increasing their returns. At the same time, they are able to become more efficient as they take advantage of economies of scale.

Overall, the crisis can be solved by a combination of measures, but requires firm governments to overcome lobbying from groups that have gained disproportionately from the current systems of social welfare.

The long-term insurance industry will have a key role in providing transparent, flexible and high-yielding insurance and savings products that are sustainable and provide for a secure old age. The industry is indispensable if workers are to raise their savings to adequate levels.


Contents: 1. Introduction

OVERVIEW

DEFINITION

REPORT COVERAGE

2. Strategic Overview

MARKET DYNAMICS AND SEGMENTATION

Current Status of the Market

Total Industry Value and Growth

Table 1: Total Premium Income of CEA Members, EU-25 and Eurozone Countries (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Figure 1: Total Premium Income of CEA Members, EU-25 and Eurozone Countries (em), 2001-2005

Table 2: Total Life Premium Income of CEA Members, EU-25 and Eurozone Countries (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Figure 2: Total Life Premium Income of CEA Members, EU-25 and Eurozone Countries (em), 2001-2005

Market Shares

Table 3: Share of Life and Non-Life Premium Income of CEA Members (%), 2001-2005

Market With Highest Growth Rate

Table 4: Top Eight Countries in Europe by Total Life Premium Income Growth (%), 2004-2005

Market With Lowest Growth Rate

Table 5: Bottom Nine Countries in Europe by Total Life Premium Income Growth (%), 2004-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 6: Number of Companies Offering Insurance Products in Europe, 2001-2005

Table 7: Distribution Channels of Life Products in Selected European Countries (%), 1995, 1999, 2000 and 2004

COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE

Table 8: Market Share of the Largest Life Insurance Companies by Life Premiums on National Markets by CEA Members (em and %), 1993 and 2004

INVESTMENTS

Table 9: Total Life Investments of CEA Members, EU-25 and Eurozone Countries (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

THE ECONOMY

Population

Table 10: Population of the Eurozone and the EU-25 (000 and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Inflation

Table 11: Inflation† in the Eurozone and the EU-25 (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Gross Domestic Product

Table 12: Gross Domestic Product per Capita in Purchasing Power Standards (EU-25=100), 2001-2005

PENSION FUNDS

Overview

Table 13: Estimated Current Levels of Assets of Privately Managed Pension Schemes as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product by Country (%), Latest Available Year

Taxation

Old-Age Dependency Ratio

Pension Fund Dynamics

Future Levels of Pension Funding

REGULATIONS

Harmonisation

Insolvency Directive

Solvency II

Insurance Directives

Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision Directive

National Interpretations

LEGISLATION

CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS PENSIONS

MARKET FORECASTS

3. Belgium

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 14: Total Life Premium Income in Belgium (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 15: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in Belgium (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 16: The Population of Belgium (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 17: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in Belgium (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 18: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in Belgium (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 19: Life Investments in Belgium (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 20: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Life Insurance in Belgium (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Table 21: Distribution Channels of Life Insurance in Belgium (%), 1995, 1999 and 2003-2005

PENSIONS

4. France

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 22: Total Life Premium Income in France (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 23: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in France (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 24: The Population of France (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 25: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in France (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 26: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in France (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 27: Life Investments in France (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 28: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Life Insurance in France (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Table 29: Distribution Channels of Life Insurance in France (%), 1995, 1999 and 2003-2005

PENSIONS

5. Germany

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 30: Total Life Premium Income in Germany (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 31: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in Germany (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 32: The Population of Germany (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 33: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in Germany (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 34: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in Germany (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 35: Life Investments in Germany (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 36: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Insurance in Germany (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

PENSIONS

The Riester Reforms

Private Provision

6. Italy

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 37: Total Life Premium Income in Italy (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 38: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in Italy (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 39: The Population of Italy (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 40: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in Italy (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 41: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in Italy (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 42: Life Investments in Italy (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 43: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Life Insurance in Italy (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Table 44: Distribution Channels of Life Insurance in Italy (%), 1995, 1999 and 2003-2005

PENSIONS

7. The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 45: Total Life Premium Income in the Netherlands (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 46: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in the Netherlands (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 47: The Population of the Netherlands (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 48: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in the Netherlands (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 49: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in the Netherlands (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 50: Life Investments in the Netherlands (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 51: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Life Insurance in the Netherlands (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Table 52: Distribution Channels of Life Insurance in the Netherlands (%), 2003-2005

PENSIONS

8. Spain

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 53: Total Life Premium Income in Spain (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 54: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in Spain (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 55: The Population of Spain (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 56: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in Spain (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 57: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in Spain (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 58: Life Investments in Spain (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 59: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Life Insurance in Spain (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Table 60: Distribution Channels of Life Insurance in Spain (%), 2003-2005

PENSIONS

9. The UK

BACKGROUND

LEGISLATION

MARKET SIZE

Table 61: Total Life Premium Income in the UK (_m and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

MARKET SHARES

Table 62: Estimated Market Shares of the Largest Life Groups in the UK (%), 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

Economic Trends

Table 63: The Population of the UK (000 and index 2001=100), 1st January 2001-2005

Table 64: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in the UK (base 2005=100), 2001-2005

Density of Insurance

Table 65: Estimated Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in the UK (e and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Life Investments

Table 66: Life Investments in the UK (em and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

DISTRIBUTION

Table 67: Estimated Number of Companies Selling Life Insurance in the UK (number and index 2001=100), 2001-2005

Table 68: Distribution Channels of Life Insurance in the UK (%), 1995, 1999 and 2003-2005

PENSIONS

Defined-Benefit and Defined-Contribution Pensions

Private Versus Public Pensions

Government White Paper

10. PEST Analysis

POLITICAL FACTORS

ECONOMIC FACTORS

SOCIAL FACTORS

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

11. Company/Supplier Profiles

ALLIANZ GROUP

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Development

Distribution

Profitability

Future Company Developments

AVIVA

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Developments

Distribution

Financial Results

Future Company Developments

GROUPE AXA

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Developments

Distribution

Profitability

Future Company Developments

FORTIS

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Developments

Distribution

Profitability

Future Company Developments

GENERALI

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Developments

Distribution

Profitability

Future Company Developments

PREDICA (CRÉDIT AGRICOLE)

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Developments

Distribution

Profitability

Future Company Developments

PRUDENTIAL

Corporate Strategy

Strengths and Weaknesses

New Product Innovation and Brand Developments

Distribution

Profitability

Future Company Developments

12. The Future

FORECASTS

Market Size

Table 69: Forecast Total Life Premium Income for the EU-25 (_m and index 2006=100), 2006-2010

Figure 3: Forecast Total Life Premium Income for the EU-25 (_m), 2006-2010

Market Shares

Table 70: Forecast Market Share of the Largest Direct Life Insurance Companies by Life Premiums on National Markets by CEA Members (em and %), 2006 and 2010

Consumer Trends

Economic Trends

Table 71: Forecast Population of the EU-25 (000 and index 2006=100), 2006-2010

Table 72: Harmonised Annual Average Consumer Price Indices in the EU-25 (base 2006=100), 2006-2010

Density of Insurance

Table 73: Forecast Average Life Premium Per Inhabitant in the EU-25 (e and index 2006=100), 2006-2010

Life Investments

Table 74: Life Investments in the EU-25 (em and index 2006=100), 2006-2010

Distribution

Table 75: Forecast Distribution Channels of Life Products in Selected European Countries (%), 2006 and 2010

Pensions

Table 76: Forecast Levels of Assets of Privately Managed Pension Schemes as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product in the EU-25 (%), 2010

SUPPLIER ISSUES

Barriers to Entry

Regulations

MARKET DYNAMICS

Political Factors

Economic Factors

Social Factors

Technological Factors

CONCLUSION

13. Further Sources

Associations

Publications

Government Sources

Other Sources

International Sources

Bisnode Sources


Companies Mentioned - Allianz Group - Aviva - Fortis - Generali - Groupe Axa - Predica (Crédit Agricole) - Prudential


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