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Personal Loans Market Assessment 2006
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Description: |
The UK consumer credit market increased strongly in the early years of the 21st century, along with other forms of borrowing. However, the growth rate has fallen with the slowing of house-price inflation. While the total amount lent is still rising at historically high levels, personal loans are no longer as profitable as other forms of lending that carry higher interest rates or are secured against property.
Banks remain dominant as lenders, and their position is assured by their ability to command leading positions in all forms of lending. This diversifies their risk in a dynamic market and, if the market for personal loans diminishes, allows them to focus on credit cards or on secured lending. The banks' focus on student loans and their participation in the provision of basic accounts indicates that they are interested in generating customer loyalty among groups to whom they do not already lend.
Building societies have been weakened as a group by the conversion to banks by all but one of the largest societies. However, they have been able to use their customer-service skills to maintain their position and to improve it within both personal and secured lending. Building societies gain in any circumstances where banks charge higher interest rates or where lenders are seen as taking unfair advantage through excessive fees.
Other specialist lenders — principally providing hire purchase (HP), lease purchase or direct personal loans for large capital items such as cars — remain strong. Their position is linked to their market niche and to the continuing strong position of motor manufacturers in the retail motor sales market. Despite the deregulation of the retail motor trade and the separation of manufacturers from retailers, the convenience to retail customers of finance arranged through the motor retailer remains highly attractive. Finance companies that are supported by private-equity capital or by bank groups compete with other finance companies for business. Competition is likely to lead to reduced margins if the market for new cars or other consumer durables weakens, or if household income ceases to rise robustly.
Retailers continue to finance purchases by their customers, but the trend is strongly downwards as store loans are replaced by branded and affinity credit-card arrangements through major banks and other finance sources. The Competition Commission's report on store cards is likely to lead to regulatory innovations that will further reduce the importance of retailer credit, given the high interest rates that are usually charged for it.
Insurance companies are rapidly reducing their personal-lending activity, and Key Note expects this source of finance to virtually disappear by 2012.
Credit-card lending has grown quickly since 2001; however, it has suffered from the increasing caution of borrowers and outstanding balances are falling in 2006. The report anticipates that a return to high levels of house sales would revive this category of lending, but that regulatory pressure and debt financing innovations will suppress margins and make it difficult to achieve the profitability seen in previous years.
Household debt is a growing worry. However, although the overall debt level in the UK is high relative to the levels of other European countries, it is nowhere near US levels and has the capacity to rise further, depending only on the confidence of consumers, the stability of the economy and the ability of lenders to raise money cheaply. Current debt-restructuring activity is feverish, reducing the returns to lenders through the terms of repayment agreements.
It is thought that the prospects for personal loans are brighter than current trends suggest, and that the key determinants are lenders' ability to improve their credit assessment of prospective borrowers and to modify their product offer to appeal to potentially profitable market segments. |
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Contents: |
1. Introduction
BACKGROUND
DEFINITION
2. Strategic Overview
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Inflation
Table 1: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2001-2005
Unemployment
Table 2: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2001-2005
Household Size
Table 3: Households in Great Britain by Size (%, million and number), 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2005
Population
Table 4: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2001-2005
Gross Domestic Product
Table 5: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Prices (£m), 2001-2005
Household Disposable Income
Table 6: UK Household Disposable Income per Capita (£), 2001-2005
MARKET DYNAMICS AND SEGMENTATION
Introduction
Market Trends
Table 7: UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Sector (£m), 2001-2006
Market Size
Table 8: UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding by Sector (£m), Year End 2001-2006
DISTRIBUTION
COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE
Debt
THE CONSUMER
MARKET FORECASTS
Regulation
The Consumer Credit Act 1974
The Consumer Credit Act 2006
Advertising Regulation and the Financial Services Authority
3. Banks
BACKGROUND
MARKET TRENDS
Table 9: UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Banks (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006
Market SIZE
Table 10: UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding with Banks (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
MARKET SHARE
Table 11: UK Banks' Individual Group Balances by Loans and Advances to Customers (£m), 2005
CONSUMER DYNAMICS
Loan Repayment Fees
Overdrafts
Online Banking
Key Note's Consumer Research
4. Building Societies
BACKGROUND
MARKET TRENDS
Table 12: UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Building Societies (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006
MARKET SIZE
Table 13: UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding with Building Societies (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
MARKET SHARE
Table 14: The Top Ten Building Societies in the UK by Assets (£m), 2005
DISTRIBUTION
5. Other Specialist Lenders
BACKGROUND
MARKET TRENDS
Table 15: UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Other Specialist Lenders (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006
MARKET SIZE
Table 16: UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding with Other Specialist Lenders (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
DISTRIBUTION
CONSUMER DYNAMICS
Motor Finance
The Cost of Credit
Key Note's Consumer Research
ADVERTISING
Table 17: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Motor Car Personal Loans (£000), Year Ending June 2006
6. Retailers
BACKGROUND
MARKET TRENDS
Table 18: UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Retailers (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006
MARKET SIZE
Table 19: UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding with Retailers (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
STORE CARDS
7. Insurance Companies and Other Lenders
INSURANCE COMPANIES
Background
Market Trends
Table 20: UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Insurance Companies (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006
Market Size
Table 21: UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding with Insurance Companies (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
OTHER LENDERS
Supermarkets
The Post Office
CONSUMER DYNAMICS
Key Note's Consumer Research
Borrowing from a Supermarket
Borrowing at the Post Office
Borrowing through a Club or Professional Association
Borrowing from a Credit Union
8. Personal Loans
CONSUMER CREDIT
Credit Scores
UNSECURED LENDING
Market Trends
Table 22: 12-Month Growth Rate for Unsecured Lending (%), 31st July 2001-2006
Advertising
Table 23: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on General Personal Loans (£000), Year Ending June 2006
Table 24: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Unsecured Personal Loans (£000), Years Ending June 2006
Suppliers
Cattles Group PLC
Payment-Protection Insurance
ONLINE PERSONAL LOANS
Comparison Websites
Advertising
Consumer Dynamics
Key Note's Consumer Research
Comparing Lenders' Interest Rates Before Borrowing
Borrowing over the Internet
Taking Out Payment-Protection Insurance
Borrowing over the Telephone
HOME CREDIT
The Competition Commission's Investigation
Market Size
Market Share
Pricing — Annual Percentage Rate and Total Charge for Credit
Provident Financial
9. Secured Lending
BACKGROUND
MARKET TRENDS
MARKET SIZE
Table 25: Loans Secured on Dwellings by Amount Outstanding (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
ADVERTISING
Table 26: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Secured Personal Loans (£000), Year Ending June 2006
SUPPLIERS
CONSUMER DYNAMICS
Key Note's Consumer Research
Taking Out Secured Loans
Difficulties Getting a Loan due to Self-Employment
Difficulties Getting a Loan due to Credit Record
10. Credit Cards
BACKGROUND
MARKET TRENDS
Table 27: UK Consumer Credit on Credit Cards by Gross Lending (£m and index 2001=100), 2001-2006
MARKET SIZE
Table 28: UK Consumer Credit on Credit Cards by Amount Outstanding (£m and index 2001=100), Year End 2001-2006
Store-Branded Credit Cards
Table 29: Store-Branded Credit Cards by Total Balances (£m), Year End 2001-2006
Market Share
ADVERTISING
Table 30: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Credit Cards and Store Cards (£000), Year Ending June 2006
CONSUMER DYNAMICS
Credit-Card Loan Repayment Fees
The Cost of Borrowing
Regulation
Key Note's Consumer Research
Borrowing on Credit Card
11. Debt
OVERINDEBTEDNESS
Table 31: Insolvencies in England and Wales (number and index Q2 2005=100), Second Quarter 2005 to Second Quarter 2006
Advertising
Suppliers
CREDIT-CARD DEBT
GOVERNMENT ACTION
National Strategy for Financial Capability
Impairment Charges
CONSUMER DYNAMICS
Key Note's Consumer Research
Saving to Avoid Debt
Ease of Getting a Loan
Borrowing from Multiple Lenders
Loan Repayment Concerns
12. An International Perspective
INTRODUCTION
CREDIT CARDS IN THE EU
FRANCE
ASIA
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTH AMERICA
13. PEST Analysis
POLITICAL FACTORS
ECONOMIC FACTORS
SOCIAL FACTORS
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS
14. Consumer Dynamics
OVERVIEW
Table 32: Summary of Attitudes Towards Borrowing (% of respondents), 2006
AVOIDING DEBT
"I Save Up in Advance to Avoid Debt"
Table 33: Saving in Advance to Avoid Debt (% of respondents), 2006
"Instead of a Loan, I Use My Combined Current/Savings Account"
Table 34: Using a Combined Current/Savings Account Instead of a Loan (% of respondents), 2006
BORROWING
"I Borrow on My Credit Card"
Table 35: Borrowing on a Credit Card (% of respondents), 2006
"If I Have Reached My Limit with One Lender, I Can Always Borrow from Another"
Table 36: Attitudes Towards Borrowing from Multiple Lenders (% of respondents), 2006
"I Take Out a Loan Based on Security such as Property"
Table 37: Taking Out Secured Loans (% of respondents), 2006
"I Look at Several Lenders' Interest Rates Before Borrowing"
Table 38: Comparing Interest Rates Before Borrowing (% of respondents), 2006
"I Think it is Too Easy to Get a Loan Nowadays"
Table 39: Attitudes Towards the Ease of Obtaining Loans (% of respondents), 2006
"I Worry About Repaying My Loan"
Table 40: Worries About Loan Repayments (% of respondents), 2006
"I Have Difficulty Getting a Loan Because I Am Self-Employed"
Table 41: Difficulties Obtaining a Loan Due to Self-Employment (% of respondents), 2006
"I Have Difficulty Getting a Loan Because of My Credit Record"
Table 42: Difficulties Obtaining a Loan Due to Credit Record (% of respondents), 2006
"I Think Interest Rates Should Be Capped"
Table 43: Attitudes Towards Capping Interest Rates (% of respondents), 2006
"I Choose a Lender Based on its Reputation"
Table 44: Selecting a Lender Based on Reputation (% of respondents), 2006
"I Take Out Payment-Protection Insurance on My Personal Loans"
Table 45: Taking Out Payment-Protection Insurance (% of respondents), 2006
"I Am Happy to Borrow at My Supermarket"
Table 46: Attitudes Towards Borrowing from a Supermarket (% of respondents), 2006
"I Am Happy to Borrow at the Post Office"
Table 47: Attitudes Towards Borrowing from the Post Office (% of respondents), 2006
"I Am Happy to Borrow Over the Telephone"
Table 48: Attitudes Towards Borrowing Over the Telephone (% of respondents), 2006
"I Am Happy to Borrow Over the Internet"
Table 49: Attitudes Towards Borrowing Over the Internet (% of respondents), 2006
"I am Happy to Borrow Through My Club or Professional Association"
Table 50: Attitudes Towards Borrowing Through a Club or Professional Association (% of respondents), 2006
"I Would Be Interested in Borrowing from a Credit Union"
Table 51: Attitudes Towards Borrowing from a Credit Union (% of respondents), 2006
"I Am Happy to Borrow to Pay for a Car Through the Retailer's Finance Facility"
Table 52: Attitudes Towards Borrowing Through a Car Dealer (% of respondents), 2006
15. Company Profiles
ALLIANCE & LEICESTER PLC
Corporate Strategy
New Product and Brand Developments
Distribution
Advertising
Profitability
Table 53: Financial Results for Alliance & Leicester PLC (£000, number, % and £), Years Ending 31st December 2003-2005
Future Company Developments
BARCLAYS PLC
Corporate Strategy
New Product and Brand Development
Distribution
Advertising
Profitability
Table 54: Financial Results for Barclays PLC (£000, number, % and £), Years Ending 31st December 2003-2005
Future Company Developments
HBOS PLC
Corporate Strategy
New Product and Brand Development
Distribution
Advertising
Profitability
Table 55: Financial Results for HBOS PLC (£000, number, % and £), Years Ending 31st December 2003-2005
Future Company Developments
HSBC BANK PLC
Corporate Strategy
New Product and Brand Development
Distribution
Advertising
Profitability
Table 56: Financial Results for HSBC Bank PLC (£000, number, % and £), Years Ending 31st December 2003-2005
Future Company Developments
LLOYDS TSB GROUP PLC
Corporate Strategy
New Product and Brand Development
Distribution
Advertising
Profitability
Table 57: Financial Results for Lloyds TSB Group PLC (£000, number, % and £), Years Ending 31st December 2003-2005
Future Company Developments
The ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC
Corporate Strategy
New Product and Brand Development
Distribution
Advertising
Profitability
Table 58: Financial Results for The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (£000, number, % and £), Years Ending 31st December 2003-2005
Future Company Developments
16. The Future
ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Population
Table 59: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2006-2010
Gross Domestic Product
Table 60: Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2006-2010
Inflation
Table 61: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2006-2010
Unemployment
Table 62: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2006-2010
Household Disposable Income
Table 63: Forecast UK Household Disposable Income per Capita (£), 2006-2010
MARKET FORECASTS
Market Trends
Table 64: Forecast UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending by Sector (£m), 2007-2011
Figure 1: Forecast UK Consumer Credit by Gross Lending (£m), 2001-2011
Market Size
Table 65: Forecast UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding by Sector (£m), Year End 2007-2011
Figure 2: Forecast UK Consumer Credit by Amount Outstanding (£m), Year End 2007-2011
CONCLUSION
17. Consumer Confidence
METHODOLOGY
KEY FINDINGS THIS QUARTER
THE WILLINGNESS TO BORROW
Confidence Rebounds
Table A: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), August 2005-2006
Fewer Adults Wish to Borrow
Table B: The Number of Adults Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items (000 and %), August 2005-2006
SPENDING FROM SAVINGS
Strong Recovery in Spending from Savings
Table C: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Spend from Savings in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), August 2005-2006
Savings Grow in Relative Importance
Table D: The Average Amounts Adults Are Confident Spending to Purchase Expensive Items (£ and %), August 2005-2006
18. Further Sources
Associations
Government Sources
Other Sources
Bisnode Sources |
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