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Take Home Trade Market Report 2006


Description: In 2005, UK consumers spent an estimated £14bn on alcoholic drinks to take home. This was equivalent to just over a third of the total UK market for alcohol in that year. The on-trade (pubs, restaurants, etc.) therefore continues to dominate the sale of alcohol in the UK, despite the fact that alcohol is now included in the regular shopping basket of the typical household.

In fact, it is the high prices in the on-trade — and the low prices for take-home drinks — that maintain this ratio. Take-home sales have increased substantially by volume, owing to price competition between the multiple grocers (the dominant force in the take-home market) and off-licences. Average prices for take-home alcohol have actually declined since 2002.

The main grocers, led by Tesco, now account for around two-thirds of the take-home market for alcohol, leaving minor shares for off-licences, whether multiples or independents. The demise of Unwins, which once had more than 450 stores in the South East, has removed another traditional off-licence brand, leaving the UK with a single major force in multiple off-licences: Thresher Group, which has around 2,150 outlets.

Thresher is currently taking the franchising route, which has been successful for discounters such as Bargain Booze and Booze Buster. At the more sophisticated end of the market are specialist wine chains such as Oddbins and Majestic Wine, but both of these are under constant pressure from the grocery superstores. Wine is the leading drink in the take-home market, whereas beer, cider and spirits are biased towards on-trade sales.

The emphasis on discounting means that the prospects for the take-home market are muted at present. One possible bonus on the horizon is a nationwide ban on smoking in enclosed public places, which could persuade smokers to drink at home. Otherwise, the alcohol market as a whole is mature and will probably show only moderate growth in value between 2007 and 2011. Within the categories, however, there can be opportunities to profit from swings in fashion, such as the current boom in cider drinking that has been inspired by the Magners brand.


Contents: 1. Market Definition

REPORT COVERAGE

MARKET SECTORS

By Type of Drink

By Type of Outlet

MARKET TRENDS

Growth in Sales by Multiple Grocers

Legislation and Taxation Remain Key Factors

Defensive Mergers Among Off-Licences

National and Global Consolidation Among Manufacturers

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Population

Table 1: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2001-2005

Gross Domestic Product

Table 2: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Prices (£m), 2001-2005

Inflation

Table 3: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2001-2005

Unemployment

Table 4: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2001-2005

Household Disposable Income

Table 5: Household Disposable Income per Capita (£), 2001-2005

MARKET POSITION

The UK

Overseas

2. Market Size

THE TOTAL MARKET

Table 6: The UK Market for Take-Home Drinks at Current and Constant 2002 Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006

Figure 1: The UK Market for Take-Home Drinks at Current and Constant 2002 Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006

MARKET SEGMENTATION

By Type of Drink

Table 7: The UK Market for Take-Home Drinks by Type of Drink at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006

Table 8: The UK Market for Take-Home Drinks by Type of Drink by Market Share by Value (%), 2002 and 2006

Wine

Spirits and Liqueurs

Beer

Other Alcohol

By Type of Outlet

Table 9: The UK Market for Take-Home Drinks by Type of Outlet by Market Share by Value (%), 1990-2006

3. Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

INDUSTRY SYNOPSIS

Table 10: Key Financial Ratios for UK Retailers of Alcoholic and Other Beverages (£000, % and £), 2004/2005

NUMBER OF COMPANIES

Table 11: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Retail Sale of Alcoholic and Other Beverages by Turnover Sizeband (£000, number and %), 1999-2005

EMPLOYMENT

Table 12: Number of UK VAT-Based Local Units Engaged in the Retail Sale of Alcoholic and Other Beverages by Employment Sizeband (number and %), 2005

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE

HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?

LEGISLATION

Licensing Act

Harmonisation of Duty

KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

British Beer and Pub Association

Wine and Spirit Trade Association

General Retail Associations

4. Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

Grocers and Convenience Stores

Off-Licences

Mail Order and Internet

MARKET LEADERS

Table 13: The UK's Leading Take-Home Retailers by Number of Outlets, 2006

Thresher Group (First Quench Retailing Ltd)

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Bargain Booze Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Oddbins Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Wine Cellar Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Majestic Wine PLC

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Multiple Grocers

Other Companies

OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS

Table 14: The Leading Suppliers of Drinks to the Take-Home Trade and Their Main Products, 2006

MARKETING ACTIVITY

Main Media Advertising Expenditure

Table 15: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Alcohol Retailers (£000), 2000 and 2006

Other Marketing Activity

5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

6. Buying Behaviour

INTRODUCTION

POPULAR OCCASIONS FOR HAVING A DRINK

Table 16: Popular Occasions for Enjoying an Alcoholic Drink (% of adults aged 16+), 2000, 2004 and 2006

Drinking at Home

Table 17: Popular Occasions for Drinking at Home by Sex, Age, Social Grade, Working Status and Region (% of adults aged 16+), 2006

LEADING DRINKS BRANDS

Table 18: Drinks Brands Consumed At Least Once a Month (% of adults aged 16+), 2000, 2004 and 2006

7. Current Issues

RECOVERY FOR SPECIALIST RETAILERS

DEMISE OF UNWINS

THRESHER GROUP DEVELOPMENTS

OTHER CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS

SMOKING BANS

LICENSING CHANGES

DRINKS IN GROWTH AND DECLINE

8. The Global Market

THE UK'S POSITION

THE SUPPLY OF DRINKS

9. Forecasts

INTRODUCTION

Population

Table 19: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2006-2010

Gross Domestic Product

Table 20: Forecast Growth in UK Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2006-2010

Inflation

Table 21: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2006-2010

Unemployment

Table 22: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2006-2010

FORECASTS 2007 TO 2011

Table 23: The Forecast UK Market for Take-Home Drinks at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2007-2011

MARKET GROWTH

Figure 2: The UK Market for Take-Home Drinks at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2011

FUTURE TRENDS

Mature Market with a Fashion Influence

Simplification of Consumer Choice

Effects of Concentration in Brand Share

Drinks Categories in the Take-Home Market

Stabilisation in Market Share by Type of Outlet

10. Company Profiles

Bargain Booze Ltd

First Quench Retailing Ltd

Majestic Wine Plc

Oddbins Ltd

WINE CELLAR LTD

11. Consumer Confidence

METHODOLOGY

KEY FINDINGS THIS QUARTER

THE WILLINGNESS TO BORROW

Confidence Rebounds

Table A: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), August 2005-2006

Fewer Adults Wish to Borrow

Table B: The Number of Adults Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items (000 and %), August 2005-2006

SPENDING FROM SAVINGS

Strong Recovery in Spending from Savings

Table C: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Spend from Savings in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), August 2005-2006

Savings Grow in Relative Importance

Table D: The Average Amounts Adults Are Confident Spending to Purchase Expensive Items (£ and %), August 2005-2006

12. Further Sources

Associations

Publications

General Sources

Government Sources

Bisnode Sources




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