Contents:

Executive Summary Defining the Next-Generation Network The NGN: Creature of Hype or Market-Driven Necessity? Putting NGN Promises to the African Reality Test Data Overtakes Voice: Contrary to Appearances, More Reality Than Myth in Africa The Fixed Carrier’s Evolving Revenue Model is Changing the Rules of the Game Can Data and Internet Make Up for Slow-Growth Voice Revenues? Africa’s Path to IP is Strewn with Obstacles Where Does a Migration to NGN Make Sense? Africa’s IP Leaders: Immediate Candidates for a Migration to NGN Africa’s IP Adopters: Small Markets Will Not Impede Migration Africa’s IP Followers: Migrating to NGN Will be Tricky Africa’s IP Laggards: The Focus Is Elsewhere Case Study: Telkom South Africa’s Migration Strategy: From PSTN to PMA Case Study: Telecom Namibia Leads the Way to IP Conclusions and Recommendations SURVEY: A Mini-Survey of African Fixed Operators FORECASTS: South Africa Broadband and Internet Forecasts FORECASTS: Egypt Broadband and Internet Forecasts FORECASTS: Morocco Broadband and Internet Forecasts List of Exhibits: The Next-Generation Network Architecture The Packet-Switching Promise for Fixed Operators Sample Scenarios of a Migration to NGN Fixed Carriers Face Competitive Challenges from All Corners Most African Markets Will See Liberalization over the Long Term Data-Voice Crossover Points Will Come Sooner Rather than Later Main Line Growth Is Not Always Best for the Bottom Line Data Revenues Are Rising as a Proportion of Total Revenues A Small Data Customer Base: Leased Lines in Selected African Markets, 2000 Internet Users and Account Penetration in Selected African Drivers and Inhibitors of Migration to IP Platforms Identifying Where the IP Opportunity Lies Separating the Leaders from the Laggards: Africa IP Adoption Matrix Proposed IP Migration Steps over the Medium Term CASE STUDY: Telkom South Africa’s Migration Strategy: From PSTN to PMA CASE STUDY: Telecom Namibia Leads the Way to IP Companies Mentioned: