Green Energy in the US: Renewable Investment, Capacity Growth and Future Outlook
Scripp Business Insights, August 2009, Pages: 173
US electrical production capacity and generation has had historically an energy mix consisting primarily of fossil fuels including gas, coal and oil, backed up with a volume of nuclear and hydro power. With the new presidency have come new decisions. The US department of energy announced massive investment in the renewable industry including $60bn in clean energy investments, which will include $11bn in a smart grid system, $2bn in developing the next generation of energy storage batteries. An announced move away from corn-based ethanol fuel and $1.8bn investment in the next generation of biofuels will stimulate the vehicular fuel industry, towards a cleaner, more efficient system. The new administration has announced intention to develop available offshore renewable energy source located on the continental shelf area. The area has vast potential and scientists estimate that 900GW of wind power may be achieved.
Although still primarily a conventional thermal based country, through incentivized support in renewable energy, a new energy market is beginning to evolve. Recent addition has been made to the energy mix by way of renewable energy technologies which include power from the wind - wind turbines, and power from the sun - solar cells, and geothermal – relying on the heat that can be found at varying degrees of depth into the Earth’s surface. In the last decade newly installed renewable energy technologies are starting to gain a notable share of the market. This report documents the growth of this new market, showing its current status and projecting where it is likely to grow to in the foreseeable future. This document gathers the statistical data on the different types of energy generation, combines and contrasts them against each other to show the clear leaders, drivers to change and future growth.
Scope of this report
-Analysis of energy type volumes, capacity installed and generation output across the US.
-Market projections to 2020, including an evaluation of energy type and national growth potential.
-Overview of trends impacting on and shaping innovation in the energy market.
-New renewable energy technology analysis including innovation, capacity investment.
-Insight relating to the most innovative product launches and potential areas of opportunity for manufacturers.
-Examination of the key technology introductions and innovations
-Identification of the key trends shaping the market, as well as an evaluation of emerging trends that will drive innovation moving forward.
Reasons to purchase this report
-Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how US market trends and legislation are influencing the development of the renewable energy market.
-Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive review of the US market renewable energy market between 1990 and 2008.
-Assess the emerging trends in renewable energy technology – wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric, biomass, tidal, wave - capacity and generation.
-Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which trends are likely to remain niche over the next 10 years.
-Compare how manufacturers are positioning new product developments to gain market share and achieve the highest sales potential.
-Quantify value and volume growth potential in major regional markets and in energy generation technology type.
-Identify winning product positioning developed from an assessment of current and emerging trends
Key market issues addressed
Environmental regulations: Imminent environmental targets set to control Carbon dioxide emissions in the US using a cap and trade mechanism are creating a path for lower carbon emitting power generation technologies. Recent capacity investment has focused on wind turbines, gas and solar photovoltaic installations.
Renewable Electricity market incentives: The US is has in place state level Renewable energy Production Standards and the Production Tax Credit which promote the development of renewable energy projects across the country, and are responsible for robust incentivized growth.
Energy efficiency:- The current electrical infrastructure experiences substantial energy loss from generation to transmission to load delivery. A more efficient system is required, a network that can take advantage of the intermittent supply nature of wind and solar – and balance these with the more constant and reliable conventional thermal generation, geothermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. Recent US policy has awarded investment into an intelligent grid system. The US has also announced energy efficiency measures to include appliances, vehicles and power plants.
Energy security:- Oil, coal and gas supply and pricing structures are volatile and uncontrollable, due to the majority imported from non-US countries. This volatility is likely to increase as reserves of the natural resources decline.
Centralized network to distributed:- the changeover to renewable technologies is a changeover to a distributed energy system, as renewable energy technologies take advantage of natural resources such as wind, solar or thermal energy which are more concentrated in specific geographical locations.
Key findings from this report
In terms of new capacity installed during 2008, the US was the largest market with 8,346.0MW, followed by China (6,300.0MW), then India (1,800.0MW), then Germany (1,665.0MW), then Spain (1,609.0 MW), and Italy (1,010.0 MW).
Out of the 5,568MW of global capacity which was installed during 2008, Spain grid-connect PV market accounted for 45.1%, Germany accounted for 26.9% and US accounted for 6.1%.
Hydropower accounts for approximately 5.8% of world electricity supply. In 2008, the total world’s hydroelectricity consumption was 3,170.9TWH. The US ranked fourth with a consumption of 250.6TWH in 2008. The US is the world leader in geothermal energy and, at the end of 2008, had cumulative installed capacity of 3,040.3MW.
In 2008, the total generation of electricity in the US was 4,110bn KWH. Generation of electricity in the US is dominated by coal. During 2008, 48.5% of the total US electric power was generated at coal-fired plants. Natural gas-fired plants contributed 21.3% to the total US electricity generation followed by nuclear plants with 19.6%.
Key questions answered by this report
- What are the drivers shaping and influencing new capacity installed in the energy industry?
- How will renewable energy technologies capacity share perform to 2020? What are the opportunities?
- What are the forecast market growth rates 2008-2030? Which markets will see the highest value growth and which the highest volume growth?
- Which states and regions offer the greatest opportunity for growth?
- Which renewable energy technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms of volume growth to 2030?
- Which energy types are likely to find favor with manufacturers moving forward?
- Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity and why?
Green Energy in the US
Executive summary xii
Market development xii
The Obama effect xiii
Wind power xiv
Solar power xv
Hydropower xvi
Geothermal power xvii
Biomass xviii
Ocean power xix
Future outlook xx
Chapter 1 Market development
Summary
Overview of US electricity infrastructure
Generation and installed capacity
Sectoral distribution of generation
Sales, revenue, and average retail price
Overview of renewable energy in the US
Background
Installed capacity and growth of renewables
Drivers of renewable energy
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
The production tax credit (PTC)
State level Renewable energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Growing public support for action on climate change
Increasing investments
Resistors of renewable energy
Failure to price CO2 emissions
Licensing and permitting issues
Environmental issues
Discontinuity in PTC
Transmission issues
Comparative economics
Global comparison
Chapter 2 The Obama effect
Summary
Overview
New energy policy
Energy security
Crude oil and petroleum imports
Natural gas imports
Coal
Biofuel’s new direction away from corn-based ethanol
The Outer Continental Shelf Project
The Outer Continental Shelf
Resource potential
The effect of the new policy
Energy efficiency
US market impact
Growth in green energy
Total energy
Electricity
Obama’s winners and losers
Chapter 3 Wind power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
State level analysis
Key players
The economics of wind power
Drivers of wind power
Continuity in PTC
Strong public and political support
Increasing economic competitiveness of wind power
Resistors of wind power
Lack of continuity in the PTC
Environmental issues
Transmission constraints and costs
Wind power potential and outlook
Wind power potential
Outlook for wind power
Chapter 4 Solar power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
State level analysis
Key players
Economics
Drivers of solar power
The Federal Investment Tax Credit
ARRA impact on the solar industry
The California Solar Initiative
Increasing corporate interest in solar power
Increased venture capital funding in solar power
State level RPS targets
Resistors of solar power
Shortage of silicon
High cost
Solar power potential and outlook
Solar power potential
Outlook for solar power
Chapter 5 Hydropower
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
State level analysis
Key players
Economics
Drivers of hydropower
Licensing reforms
Inclusion of incremental hydropower under PTC
The DOE Hydropower Program
Resistors of hydropower
Licensing issues due to environmental concerns
Newly realized environmental concerns
Capital intensive but lacking incentives
Hydropower potential and outlook
Hydropower potential
Outlook for hydropower
Chapter 6 Geothermal power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
State level analysis
Key players
Economics
Drivers of geothermal power
Introduction of PTC for geothermal
Other financial merits for geothermal
DOE’s Geothermal Technologies Program
Increased environmental concerns
Resistors of geothermal power
Short time horizon for PTC
Leasing issues
Cost constraints and transmission issues
Limited research funding
Geothermal power potential and outlook
Geothermal power potential
Outlook for geothermal power
Chapter 7 Biomass
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Installed capacity and generation
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of biomass
Attractive economics of co-firing
Environmentally friendly power generation
Employment generation
DOE biomass program
PTC extension and ITC inclusion
Resistors of biomass
Cost constraints
Constraints in the supply of raw material
Biomass potential and outlook
Biomass potential
Outlook for biomass
Chapter 8 Ocean power
Summary
Overview
Current scenario
Global comparison
Key players
Economics
Drivers of ocean power
Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008
State and city government initiatives
Private investments
Resistors of ocean power
Lack of federal support
Siting and leasing issues
Cost constraints
Ocean power potential and outlook
Ocean power potential
Outlook for ocean power
Chapter 9 Future outlook
Summary
Outlook for the US electricity sector
Outlook for renewables
The American Clean Energy and Security Act
EIA outlook
Alternative scenarios
Abbreviations
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: US net generation share by energy source (Thousand MWh), 2008
Figure 1.2: US electrical total net summer capacity (GW), 2007
Figure 1.3: US net energy generation shares by sector (Thousand MWh), 2008
Figure 1.4: Crude oil spot prices ($ per barrel), 1986-2009
Figure 1.5: US net generation by energy source (Thousand KWh), 2008
Figure 1.6: US electrical generation growth by type (%), 2003-2007
Figure 2.7: US primary energy consumption by source and sector (Quadrillion Btu), 2007
Figure 2.8: The Continental Shelf
Figure 2.9: US renewable energy regional planning areas on the Outer Continental Shelf
Figure 2.10: Total US energy (Quadrillion Btu), 2008
Figure 3.11: US cumulative installed wind capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 3.12: Top 10 countries by cumulative installed wind capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 3.13: Top 10 countries by new installed capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 3.14: Leading US states by cumulative wind capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 3.15: Average cost/KWh of wind-generated electricity (US cents), 1980-2020
Figure 3.16: Impact of PTC on wind power capacity additions (MW), 2009
Figure 3.17: Wind resource map for the US
Figure 4.18: US cumulative installed solar PV capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 4.19: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed solar capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 4.20: Key markets by new installed solar capacity (%), 2008
Figure 4.21: US solar PV market (MW), 2008
Figure 4.22: Solar PV manufacturers’ market shares in US (%), 2008
Figure 4.23: Technology cost reduction goals for residential PV systems ($/Wp), 2008
Figure 4.24: Solar resource map for the US
Figure 4.25: Forecasts for installed capacity and costs
Figure 5.26: US cumulative installed hydropower capacity (GW), 2007
Figure 5.27: US power generation from hydroelectric power (TWh), 2007
Figure 5.28: US total average electric power from hydroelectric plants (%)
Figure 5.29: Top 5 countries by hydroelectric power consumption (TWh), 2008
Figure 5.30: Leading US states by cumulative capacity (Thousand MWh), 2009
Figure 5.31: Ownership of hydroelectric plants in the US (MW), 2006
Figure 5.32: US DOE Hydropower Program
Figure 5.33: Feasible project US hydropower potential (MW)
Figure 5.34: US generation, hydropower vs. other renewables (TWh), 1990-2030
Figure 6.35: US cumulative installed summer capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 6.36: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed capacity (MW), 2009
Figure 6.37: Leading US states by cumulative capacity (MW), 2008
Figure 6.38: US geothermal existing plant locations
Figure 6.39: Geothermal resource map for the US
Figure 6.40: US Geothermal potential capacity by 2025 (MW)
Figure 6.41: Estimated earth temperature at 6.5 km depth in the US
Figure 7.42: US cumulative installed capacity (MW) and Net generation (Thousand KWh), 2007 134
Figure 7.43: US biomass net electricity generation (Thousand KWh), 2007
Figure 7.44: Biomass gasification combined-cycle electricity costs (cents/ KWh), 2000-2020
Figure 7.45: US biomass capacity projections, 2000-2020
Figure 7.46: Biomass resources in the US
Figure 8.47: Ocean energy resource map for the US
Figure 9.48: US electricity sales by sector (bn KWh), 1980-2030
Figure 9.49: US net generation by energy source (%), 2008-2030
Figure 9.50: US reference case scenario capacity outlook to 2030 (GW)
Figure 9.51: US reference case scenario outlook to 2030 (bn KWh)
List of Tables
Table 1.1: US state Renewable energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Table 1.2: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/KW), 2003 and 2007
Table 1.3: Levelized cost of generation by type ($/MWh), California 2007
Table 1.4: Global comparison of cumulative installed renewable and alternative energy capacity, 2009
Table 2.5: Non renewable resources depletion, 2009
Table 2.6: Largest US state annual wind power increases (MW), 2008
Table 2.7: Largest US state cumulative wind power (MW), 2008
Table 3.8: Largest wind farms operating in the US (MW), 2008
Table 3.9: Turbine manufacturer share in the US by capacity (MW), 2008
Table 3.10: Top 20 US states for wind energy potential in the US (billion KWh)
Table 5.11: Largest hydroelectricity dams in the US (MW), 2008
Table 5.12: Costs parameters of hydro technologies
Table 5.13: Site development costs of hydro technologies
Table 6.14: Largest geothermal projects operating in the US
Table 6.15: Cost parameters of a geothermal power plant (Cost $/KW), 2008
Table 6.16: Top 10 states for geothermal energy potential in the US
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