LPWAN Smart Metering: Market Forecast

Report
93 Pages
July 2019
Region: Global
Northeast Group, LLC
ID: 4849805

The emergence of low power wide area networks (LPWANs) has been promoted as a boon to the Internet of Things (IoT) industry. LPWAN features are well-suited to IoT use cases in which thousands or even millions of devices are deployed: wide-area coverage requiring low power needs, as only small data amounts are sent. The excitement surrounding the rise of LPWAN has grown over the past several years, most notably through the rollout of NB-IoT, LTE-M, and LoRa networks across the world. Most potential LPWAN IoT applications - such as smart parking, waste management, or health monitoring - remain mostly at pilot scale. But one notable exception is smart metering, where there have already been deployments in the low millions connected on LPWANs, with plans for tens of millions more.

Yet, while smart metering will have a large effect on the LPWAN industry - immediately providing well-defined use cases and millions of potential endpoints - LPWAN will somewhat surprisingly still only have a minor effect on smart metering. There are 2.7billion electricity, water, and gas meters globally (excl. China). Even as an increasing share of these meters are connected over the next decade, most utilities will stick with entrenched communications options such as RF mesh and PLC (for the purposes of this study, Wi-SUN and other RF mesh options are not considered LPWANs).

In effect, the hype over LPWAN smart metering is real, but the effects will be more subtle. Existing meter vendors will continue to dominate the market, but in some cases will partner with LPWAN providers. Telecom network operators that provide connectivity for smart metering projects will look to add managed services contracts to compensate for relatively low connectivity revenues (just $408m annually by 2028), helping move more utilities to the network-as-a-service model. Meanwhile, some emerging market countries that have yet to deploy smart meters and may have lesser requirements could look to leapfrog to LPWAN options. Overall, smart metering will help drive LPWAN rollouts and markets, while LPWAN is changing the dynamics of the rapidly evolving smart meter industry, even as it plays a niche role.

Key questions answered in this study:

How large will the LPWAN smart metering market be over the next decade?
How will the market be split between the various cellular and non-cellular LPWAN technologies?
How high will LPWAN penetration reach in the electricity, water, and gas smart metering segments?
Which vendors will win the bulk of market share, and how will smart metering vendors collaborate with or compete against LPWAN operators?

i. Executive summary1. What’s new in 2019

2. LPWAN overview

2.1 What is LPWAN?
2.2 LPWAN applications
2.3 Types of LPWAN
2.4 LPWAN drivers
2.5 LPWAN barriers

3. Global LPWAN-connected metering activity

3.1 Electricity
3.2 Water
3.3 Gas

4. Market forecast

5. Vendors

5.1 Vendor profiles

6. Appendix

6.1 Commercial cellular LPWAN launches
6.2 Supplemental forecast charts and tables
6.3 List of companies
6.4 List of abbreviations and acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

LPWAN-connected smart metering: key takeaways
LPWAN metering value forecast
LPWAN metering revenue forecast
Key LPWAN electricity metering deployments
LPWAN electricity metering unit forecast
Key LPWAN water metering deployments
LPWAN water metering unit forecast
Key LPWAN gas metering deployments
LPWAN gas metering unit forecast
Figure 1.1: Recent cellular LPWAN network deployments
Figure 1.2: Key LPWAN metering deployments
Figure 1.3: Annual LPWAN smart meter deployments –cellular vs. non-cellular
Figure 1.4: Annual LPWAN smart meter deployments by sector
Figure 1.5: Global metering revenue – LPWAN connectivity vs. managed services
Figure 1.6: LPWAN connectivity price decline
Figure 2.1: Benefits of LPWAN in metering
Figure 2.2: Leading LPWAN use cases
Table 2.1: LPWAN vs. RF mesh for metering projects
Figure 2.3: Global metering market
Figure 2.4: Top LPWAN technologies
Figure 2.5: Cellular LPWAN network deployments
Table 2.2: LPWAN cellular technologies –key features
Figure 2.6: LoRa network deployments
Figure 2.7: LPWAN recent history
Table 2.3: LPWAN technologies – key features
Table 2.4: LPWAN cost comparison
Table 3.1: LPWAN electricity metering projects
Table 3.2: LPWAN water metering projects
Table 3.3: LPWAN gas metering projects
Figure 4.1: Global LPWAN metering 2019-2028
Figure 4.2: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by sector (annual)
Table 4.1: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by sector (annual)
Figure 4.3: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by sector (cumulative)
Table 4.2: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by sector (cumulative)
Figure 4.4: LPWAN smart metering unit forecasts: high, low and base (annual)
Table 4.3: LPWAN smart metering unit forecasts: high, low and base (annual)
Figure 4.5: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Table 4.4: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Figure 4.6: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 4.5: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 4.7: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by sector (annual)
Table 4.6: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by sector (annual)
Figure 4.8: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by sector (annual)
Table 4.7: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by sector (annual)
Figure 4.9: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by region (annual)
Table 4.8: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by region (annual)
Figure 4.10: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by technology (annual)
Table 4.9: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by technology (annual)
Figure 4.11: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by technology (cumulative)
Table 4.10: LPWAN smart metering unit forecast by technology (cumulative)
Figure 5.1: Vendor segmentation
Table 5.1: Telecom-metering partnerships
Table 6.1: Cellular IoT network deployments
Figure 6.1: LPWAN electricity metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Table 6.2: LPWAN electricity metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Figure 6.2: LPWAN electricity metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 6.3: LPWAN electricity metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 6.3: LPWAN water metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Table 6.4: LPWAN water metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Figure 6.4: LPWAN water metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 6.5: LPWAN water metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 6.5: LPWAN gas metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Table 6.6: LPWAN gas metering unit forecast by region (annual)
Figure 6.6: LPWAN gas metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 6.7: LPWAN gas metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 6.7: LPWAN electricity metering value forecast by region (annual)
Table 6.8: LPWAN electricity metering value forecast by region (annual)
Figure 6.8: LPWAN water metering value forecast by region (annual)
Table 6.9: LPWAN water metering value forecast by region (annual)
Figure 6.9: LPWAN gas metering value forecast by region (annual)
Table 6.10: LPWAN gas metering value forecast by region (annual)
Figure 6.10: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by technology (annual)
Table 6.11: LPWAN smart metering value forecast by technology (annual)
Figure 6.11: High case LPWAN metering unit forecast by sector (cumulative)
Table 6.12: High case LPWAN metering unit forecast by sector (cumulative)
Figure 6.12: High case LPWAN metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 6.13: High case LPWAN metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 6.13: High case LPWAN metering value forecast by sector (annual)
Table 6.14: High case LPWAN value forecast by sector (annual)
Figure 6.14: Low case LPWAN metering unit forecast by sector (cumulative)
Table 6.15: Low case LPWAN metering unit forecast by sector (cumulative)
Figure 6.15: Low case LPWAN metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 6.16: Low case LPWAN metering unit forecast by region (cumulative)
Figure 6.16: Low case LPWAN metering value forecast by sector (annual)
Table 6:17: Low case LPWAN metering value forecast by sector (annual)

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