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The 2007-2012 Outlook for Tissue Paper and Other Machine-Creped Paper Excluding Toilet Tissue Stock and Toweling Paper Stock in the United States

Description:
WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if the United States is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock in the United States is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a market.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends). If inflation rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.

As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. In fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock at the aggregate level. Product and service offerings, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.

THE METHODOLOGY

In order to estimate the latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock across the states and cites of the United States, we used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, we heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a state, city, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.

Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across geographies, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data). This type of consumption function is shown as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.

















Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related is interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock across the states and cities of the United States. The smallest cities have few inhabitants. we assume that all of these cities fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these states having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, we allow different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, we will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock in the United States. Since this methodology has been applied to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories and geographic locations, not just tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock in the United States.

Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection

Any study of latent demand requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, we have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key indicators are more likely to reflect efficiency than others. These indicators are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, we have found the assumption that the highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e. some cities have high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income).

Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Official Chinese Agencies, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all states and cities in the United States (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).

Given this caveat, this study covers “tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock” as defined by the NAICS coding system (pronounced “nakes”). For a complete definition of tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock, please see below. The NAICS code for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock is 322121G3. It is for this definition of tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived for the states and cities of the United States. “Tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock” is specifically defined as follows:

322121G3
Tissue paper and other machine_creped paper, excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock

322121G331
Facial tissue stock, except toweling, napkin, and toilet

322121G341
Napkin paper stock, except sanitary napkin stock wadding

322121G351
Wiper tissue stock, regular, facial, and wadding stock

322121G361
Other sanitary paper stock, including sanitary napkin stock wadding, aseptic paper stock, reinforced paper stock, etc.

322121G371
Wrapping tissue, including florist tissue stock, hosiery paper, interleaving, antitarnish, etc.

322121G391
Other tissue paper stock, including waxing tissue stock, creped wadding for interior packaging (excluding sanitary and thin)



Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing

Based on the aggregate view of tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock as defined above, data were then collected for as many geographic locations as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample of indicators from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a geographic region, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a state or city stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis.

Step 3. Filling in Missing Values

In some cases, data are available on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data may be available for only one year. From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national, state and city-level income. Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), states and cities which have missing data for any given year, are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that geographic entity.

Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation

Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand is estimated using a “varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model”. Simply stated, the effect of income on latent demand is assumed to be constant unless there is empirical evidence to suggest that this effect varies (i.e., . the slope of the income effect is not necessarily same for all states or cities). This assumption applies along the aggregate consumption function, but also over time (i.e., not all states or cities in the United States are perceived to have the same income growth prospects over time). Another way of looking at this is to say that latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock is more likely to be similar across states or cities that have similar characteristics in terms of economic development.

This approach is useful across geographic regions for which some notion of non-linearity exists in the aggregate cross-region consumption function. For some categories, however, the reader must realize that the numbers will reflect a state’s or city’s contribution to latent demand in the United States and may never be realized in the form of local sales.

Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation

Nonlinearities are assumed in cases where filtered data exist along the aggregate consumption function. Because the United States consists of more than 15,000 cities, there will always be those cities, especially toward the bottom of the consumption function, where non-linear estimation is simply not possible. For these cities, equilibrium latent demand is assumed to be perfectly parametric and not a function of wealth (i.e., a city’s stock of income), but a function of current income (a city’s flow of income). In the long run, if a state has no current income, the latent demand for tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock is assumed to approach zero. The assumption is that wealth stocks fall rapidly to zero if flow income falls to zero (i.e., cities which earn low levels of income will not use their savings, in the long run, to demand tissue paper and other machine-creped paper excluding toilet tissue stock and toweling paper stock). In a graphical sense, for low income cities, latent demand approaches zero in a parametric linear fashion with a zero-zero intercept. In this stage of the estimation procedure, a low-income city is assumed to have a latent demand proportional to its income, based on the cities closest to it on the aggregate consumption function.

Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking

Based on the models described above, latent demand figures are estimated for all major cities in the United States. These are then aggregated to get state totals. This report considers a city as a part of the regional and national market. The purpose is to understand the density of demand within a state and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its state. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. we allocate latent demand across areas of dominant influence based on the relative economic importance of cities within its state. Not all cities (e.g. the smaller towns) are estimated within each state as demand may be allocated to adjacent areas of influence. Since some cities have higher economic wealth than others within the same state, a city’s population is not generally used to allocate latent demand. Rather, the level of economic activity of the city vis-à-vis others is used.
 
Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 9 1.1 Overview 9 1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 9 1.3 The Methodology 10 1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 11 1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 12 1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 13 1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 13 1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 13 1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 14 2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 15 2.1 Latent Demand in The US 15 3 FAR WEST 17 3.1 Executive Summary 17 3.2 Latent Demand by Year - Alaska 19 3.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Alaska 20 3.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Alaska 21 3.5 Latent Demand by Year - California 23 3.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - California 24 3.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - California 43 3.8 Latent Demand by Year - Hawaii 63 3.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hawaii 64 3.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Hawaii 66 3.11 Latent Demand by Year - Nevada 69 3.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nevada 70 3.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Nevada 71 3.14 Latent Demand by Year - Oregon 73 3.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - Oregon 74 3.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Oregon 78 3.17 Latent Demand by Year - Washington 82 3.18 Cities Sorted by Rank - Washington 83 3.19 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Washington 90 4 GREAT LAKES 98 4.1 Executive Summary 98 4.2 Latent Demand by Year - Illinois 100 4.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Illinois 101 4.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Illinois 114 4.5 Latent Demand by Year - Indiana 128 4.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - Indiana 129 4.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Indiana 135 4.8 Latent Demand by Year - Michigan 142 4.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Michigan 143 4.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Michigan 151 4.11 Latent Demand by Year - Ohio 160 4.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ohio 161 4.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Ohio 173 4.14 Latent Demand by Year - Wisconsin 186 4.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - Wisconsin 187 4.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Wisconsin 197 5 MID-ATLANTIC 208 5.1 Executive Summary 208 5.2 Latent Demand by Year - Delaware 210 5.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Delaware 211 5.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Delaware 212 5.5 Latent Demand by Year - District of Columbia 213 5.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - District of Columbia 215 5.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - District of Columbia 215 5.8 Latent Demand by Year - Maryland 216 5.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Maryland 217 5.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Maryland 223 5.11 Latent Demand by Year - New Jersey 230 5.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - New Jersey 231 5.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New Jersey 240 5.14 Latent Demand by Year - New York 250 5.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - New York 251 5.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New York 277 5.17 Latent Demand by Year - Pennsylvania 303 5.18 Cities Sorted by Rank - Pennsylvania 304 5.19 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Pennsylvania 320 6 NEW ENGLAND 336 6.1 Executive Summary 336 6.2 Latent Demand by Year - Connecticut 338 6.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Connecticut 339 6.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Connecticut 344 6.5 Latent Demand by Year - Maine 349 6.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - Maine 350 6.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Maine 355 6.8 Latent Demand by Year - Massachusetts 361 6.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Massachusetts 362 6.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Massachusetts 370 6.11 Latent Demand by Year - New Hampshire 379 6.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - New Hampshire 380 6.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New Hampshire 384 6.14 Latent Demand by Year - Rhode Island 389 6.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - Rhode Island 390 6.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Rhode Island 391 6.17 Latent Demand by Year - Vermont 393 6.18 Cities Sorted by Rank - Vermont 394 6.19 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Vermont 397 7 PLAINS 401 7.1 Executive Summary 401 7.2 Latent Demand by Year - Iowa 403 7.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Iowa 404 7.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Iowa 409 7.5 Latent Demand by Year - Kansas 414 7.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kansas 415 7.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Kansas 418 7.8 Latent Demand by Year - Minnesota 422 7.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Minnesota 423 7.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Minnesota 430 7.11 Latent Demand by Year - Missouri 437 7.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Missouri 438 7.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Missouri 444 7.14 Latent Demand by Year - Nebraska 451 7.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nebraska 452 7.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Nebraska 454 7.17 Latent Demand by Year - North Dakota 456 7.18 Cities Sorted by Rank - North Dakota 457 7.19 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - North Dakota 458 7.20 Latent Demand by Year - South Dakota 459 7.21 Cities Sorted by Rank - South Dakota 460 7.22 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - South Dakota 461 8 ROCKIES 463 8.1 Executive Summary 463 8.2 Latent Demand by Year - Colorado 465 8.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Colorado 466 8.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Colorado 470 8.5 Latent Demand by Year - Idaho 475 8.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - Idaho 476 8.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Idaho 478 8.8 Latent Demand by Year - Montana 480 8.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Montana 481 8.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Montana 483 8.11 Latent Demand by Year - Utah 485 8.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Utah 486 8.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Utah 489 8.14 Latent Demand by Year - Wyoming 493 8.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - Wyoming 494 8.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Wyoming 495 9 SOUTHEAST 497 9.1 Executive Summary 497 9.2 Latent Demand by Year - Alabama 499 9.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Alabama 500 9.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Alabama 505 9.5 Latent Demand by Year - Arkansas 510 9.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - Arkansas 511 9.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Arkansas 514 9.8 Latent Demand by Year - Florida 518 9.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Florida 519 9.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Florida 534 9.11 Latent Demand by Year - Georgia 549 9.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Georgia 550 9.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Georgia 556 9.14 Latent Demand by Year - Kentucky 563 9.15 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kentucky 564 9.16 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Kentucky 568 9.17 Latent Demand by Year - Louisiana 573 9.18 Cities Sorted by Rank - Louisiana 574 9.19 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Louisiana 579 9.20 Latent Demand by Year - Mississippi 584 9.21 Cities Sorted by Rank - Mississippi 585 9.22 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Mississippi 588 9.23 Latent Demand by Year - North Carolina 591 9.24 Cities Sorted by Rank - North Carolina 592 9.25 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - North Carolina 599 9.26 Latent Demand by Year - South Carolina 607 9.27 Cities Sorted by Rank - South Carolina 608 9.28 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - South Carolina 612 9.29 Latent Demand by Year - Tennessee 617 9.30 Cities Sorted by Rank - Tennessee 618 9.31 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Tennessee 623 9.32 Latent Demand by Year - Virginia 629 9.33 Cities Sorted by Rank - Virginia 630 9.34 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Virginia 635 9.35 Latent Demand by Year - West Virginia 640 9.36 Cities Sorted by Rank - West Virginia 641 9.37 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - West Virginia 643 10 SOUTHWEST 646 10.1 Executive Summary 646 10.2 Latent Demand by Year - Arizona 648 10.3 Cities Sorted by Rank - Arizona 649 10.4 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Arizona 652 10.5 Latent Demand by Year - New Mexico 656 10.6 Cities Sorted by Rank - New Mexico 657 10.7 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - New Mexico 659 10.8 Latent Demand by Year - Oklahoma 661 10.9 Cities Sorted by Rank - Oklahoma 662 10.10 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Oklahoma 666 10.11 Latent Demand by Year - Texas 670 10.12 Cities Sorted by Rank - Texas 671 10.13 Cities Sorted by Zipcode - Texas 688 11 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 706 12 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 707 12.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 707 12.2 User Agreement Provisions 708
 
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