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Worldwide PC Market, 2007 Version


Description: A Market Research Report With Perspectives And A Topdown View Of The PC Industry—Past, Present & Future Trends

Information Available:

Unit sales
Unit growth rate
Unit market share
Average PC end-user price
Revenues
Revenue growth
Revenue market share
PC sales per 1,000 people
PC replacement rates
PCs-in-use
PCs-in-use per 1,000 people

Regions:

USA
North America
Latin America
Middle East & Africa W. Europe
E. Europe
Asia/Pacific
Worldwide

Years:

Historical data: 1990-2005
Forecast data: 2007-2012

Product Segments:

Total PCs
PC Servers
Desktop PCs
Mobile PCs

PC Companies Sales Estimates:

Acer
Apple Computer
Compaq Computer Historical Data
Dell Computer
Gateway
Hewlett-Packard
IBM Historical Data
Lenovo
NEC
Toshiba

Worldwide PC Market Forecast Methodology

Today there is a wealth of market research data for the PC industry. The problem is not a scarcity of data, but too much data that often shows conflicting results. Data disagreements are usually caused by different definitions of product categories between different sources. It is especially difficult to compare data between different geographic regions from different research sources. The result is that there is lots of conflicting survey data and shipment estimates and it takes a major effort and knowledge to determine what is good information and what is poor data that should be discarded. The next sections explain the forecast methodology and assumptions.

The strategy of this project is to collect as much existing data as possible and use a common PC product definition across the geographic regions. A lot of time has been spent analyzing a wealth of data. The resulting forecast is an inexpensive product that has all the top-level statistics for the worldwide PC industry.

The historical part of this forecast is based on several types of information as explained below:
1. Survey data from computer resellers. The survey data is especially plentiful for the U.S. market where monthly survey data of computer resellers is available since 1984. Lesser amounts of survey data are also available for the European market. This data includes PC product mix, prices and PC vendor sales information.
2. PC manufacturers' annual, quarterly and federal financial fillings. These documents include product mix data, revenues by geographic regions and often contain PC shipment figures by geographic regions.
3. PC manufacturers' press releases, which often list their sales, market shares, rankings, milestones and other useful information.
4. Government statistics from many different countries. Useful information includes survey data that estimate how many households have PCs, number of PCs per household, future buying intentions, how many workers have PCs and so on.
5. News reports and articles from the computer and business press and their websites. There is a wealth of information nuggets buried in thousands of articles.
6. Research reports by Wall Street analysts. These reports often have useful shipment information.
7. Internet user statistics. The recent flood of Internet user statistics is helpful in estimating the number of PCs sold and PCs-in-use.
8. A personal library of computer industry statistics that goes back to the beginning of the PC industry. These statistics started with Future Computing, which was the premier PC market research company in the 1980-1986 timeframe. Future Computing collected the most PC industry statistics of any organization in the world. The data collection continued for the Computer Industry Almanac and Internet Industry Almanac. For nearly 15 years country-specific PCs-in-use and computers-in-use statistics were collected for over 50 countries. As the eight Computer Industry Almanacs and one Internet Industry Almanac were sold across the world additional data was received from some readers.
The forecast for future years is more difficult to do. However, 20 years of experience in forecasting the PC industry is helpful. The following factors were used in the forecast.
1. Ultimate PC penetration estimates is a useful technique. The ultimate PC penetration rate is different for each country and region and basically depends on the wealth of each country and region. More information is shown below.
2. PC sales per capita and PCs-in-use per capita are calculated to track how far the PC penetration has proceeded. Increasing PC penetration invariably slows the PC shipment growth rate.
3. PC replacement rates and PC product lifetime. Existing PC owners replace their PCs at regular intervals. The replacement rates depend on the market maturity, economic conditions and the useful life of PCs. In each country and region a portion of new PC sales replace older and obsolete PCs. The forecast assumes a PC lifetime of four to five years in the industrialized countries and five to six years in the less developed countries.
4. Internet market dynamics. Since the Internet has become the main driving force for PC adoption, the market dynamics of the Internet growth is a major factor in PC growth. The results from another forecast product, which estimates of the number of Internet users for the same geographic regions and 50+ specific countries, was used as a guideline.

The PC shipment forecast was developed by using three more guidelines. The first guideline is the current growth rate for each region. The second guideline is the relative maturity of each region's adoption of PCs and the Internet. The maturity is indicated by PC sales per 1,000 people, PCs-in-use per 1,000 people and Internet users per 1,000 people. Some countries have been very active in their adoption of computers and the Internet and their PC growth rates have started to drop. Other countries have limited PC penetration and are just starting to use the Internet and their growth rates will remain high.

The third guideline is the economic climate, telecommunications infrastructure and pricing, gross domestic product per capita and political and religious freedom. If the economy is poor, if the telecom network is limited or expensive and/or the average income per capita of a country is low, then the potential for PC usage and Internet usage are low because relatively few companies and few consumers can afford the cost of Internet/PC hardware and usage fees. Another important factor is the political and religious freedom in a country. If the personal freedom in a country is limited, either by politics or religion, the potential for Internet usage will be much lower than without these restrictions. Examples are Cuba and North Korea that have limited political freedom and Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and others where religious restrictions put a damper on PC adoption and Internet usage.


Contents: 1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 PC Market Segments
1.2 PC Vendor Shipments
1.3 New PC Opportunities

2.0 PC Forecast Summary
2.1 What is Included in the PC Shipment Forecast?
2.2 PC Market Perspectives
2.3 Worldwide PC Sales Summary
2.4 USA PC Sales Summary
2.5 Historical Perspectives on USA PC Industry

3.0 PC Technology Trends
3.1 Technology Trends
3.2 Semiconductor Technologies
3.3 PC Technology Trends
3.4 Mass Storage Technologies
3.4.1 Memory Cards
3.5 Emerging PC Opportunities
3.6 PC Manufacturing

4.0 Worldwide PC Forecast
4.1 What Countries are in each Region?
4.2 Total PC Unit Sales by Region
4.3 Server PC Unit Sales by Region
4.4 Desktop PC Unit Sales by Region
4.5 Mobile PC Unit Sales by Region
4.5.1 Tablet PC Forecast
4.6 PCs-in-Use by Region
4.7 PCs in Homes by Region
4.8 PCs in Businesses by Region

5.0 Worldwide PC Revenues
5.1 Total PC Revenues by Region
5.2 Server PC Revenues by Region
5.3 Desktop PC Revenues by Regions
5.4 Mobile PC Revenues by Region

6.0 Worldwide Shipments of Leading PC Vendors
6.1 U.S. Shipments of Leading PC Vendors

7.0 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions
7.1 PC Demand Factors
7.2 Ultimate PC Penetration Rates
7.3 PC Forecast Assumptions

8.0 Forecast Spreadsheet Details
8.1 PC Market Summary by Region
8.1.1 USA PC Market Summary
8.1.2 N. America PC Market Summary
8.1.3 W. Europe PC Market Summary
8.1.4 E. Europe PC Market Summary
8.1.5 Europe PC Market Summary
8.1.6 Asia Pacific PC Market Summary
8.1.7 Latin America PC Market Summary
8.1.8 M. East/Africa PC Market Summary
8.1.9 Worldwide PC Market Summary
8.2 PC Manufacturer Summary
8.2.1 Acer
8.2.2 Apple Computer
8.2.3 Compaq Computer Historical Data
8.2.4 Dell Computer
8.2.5 Gateway
8.2.6 Hewlett-Packard
8.2.7 IBM Historical Data
8.2.8 Lenovo
8.2.9 NEC
8.2.10 Toshiba

9.0 PC Industry Resources
9.1 PC-Related Newsletters
9.2 PC-Related Magazines
9.3 PC-Related Websites
9.4 PC-Related Organizations
9.5 Author Bio
9.6 Other Research Reports by us

Worldwide PC Forecast: List of Figures and Tables
Table 1.1: U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Growth
Figure 1.1: PC Sales by Regions
Table 1.2: U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Segments
Figure 1.2: PCs In-Use by Regions
Table 1.3: U.S. and Worldwide PCs-in-Use and PC Sales Per 1,000 People
Table 1.4: PC Sales of Leading Vendors
Table 1.5: New PC Opportunities
Table 2.1: What is Included in the PC Sales Forecast?
Table 2.2 PC Market Perspectives
Table 2.3: Worldwide PC Market
Figure 2.1: Worldwide PC Sales by Product Segments
Table 2.4: Worldwide PC Market Segments
Table 2.5: USA PC Market
Figure 2.2: USA PC Product Unit Sales
Table 2.6: USA PC Market Segments
Table 2.7: USA Historical PC Sales
Table 2.8: USA PC Generations: 1-3
Table 2.9: USA PC Generations: 4-6
Table 2.10: USA PC Generations: 7-10
Figure 3.1: Technologies for PCs
Figure 3.2: Technology Price-Performance Wedge
Table 3.1: Technology Wedge Impact
Figure 3.3: Technology Wedge Families
Table 3.2: Semiconductor Technology Trends
Table 3.3: PC Technology Trends
Table: 3.4 Network-Communications Technologies
Table 3.5: Storage Technology Trends
Table 3.6: Small Form Factor Memory Cards
Table 3.7: Emerging PC Opportunities
Table 3.7: Leading Motherboard PC Suppliers
Table 3.8: Leading Notebook PC Suppliers
Table 4.1 Countries by Regions
Table 4.2: PC Unit Sales by Region
Table 4.3: Regional Market Shares for PC Unit Sales
Table 4.4: Regional PC Unit Sales Per 1,000 People
Table 4.5: Server PC Unit Sales by Region
Table 4.6: Regional Market Shares for Server PC Unit Sales
Table 4.7: Desktop PC Unit Sales by Region
Table 4.8: Regional Desktop PC Unit Sale Market Shares
Table 4.9: Mobile PC Unit Sales by Region
Table 4.10: Regional Mobile PC Unit Sale Market Shares
Table 4.11: Tablet PC Unit Sales by Region
Table 4.12: Regional Tablet PC Unit Sale Market Shares
Table 4.13: PCs-in-Use Per 1,000 People by Region
Table 4.14: PCs-in-Use by Region
Table 4.15: Server PCs-in-Use by Region
Table 4.16: Desktop PCs-in-Use by Region
Table 4.17: Mobile PCs-in-Use by Region
Table 4.18: Households With PCs by Region
Table 4.19: PCs-in-Use Per Household by Region
Table 4.20: PCs in Homes by Region
Table 4.21: Share of PCs in Homes of Total PCs by Region
Table 4.22: PCs in Businesses by Region
Table 4.23: Share of PCs in Businesses of Total PCs by Region
Table 5.1: Worldwide PC Revenues by Region
Table 5.2: Regional PC Revenue Market Shares
Table 5.3: Server PC Revenue by Region
Table 5.4: Regional Server Revenue Market Shares
Table 5.5: Desktop PC Revenue by Region
Table 5.6: Regional Desktop PC Revenue Market Shares
Table 5.7: Mobile PC Revenue by Region
Table 5.8: Regional Mobile PC Revenue Market Shares
Table 6.1: Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 1990-1998
Table 6.2: Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 1999-2006
Table 6.3: Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 2007-2012
Table 6.4: Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Unit Market Shares
Table 6.5: Top 15 PC Brands in 2006
Table 6.6: Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 1990-1998
Table 6.7: Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 1999-2005
Table 6.8: Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 2007-2012
Table 6.9: Leading PC Vendors' USA Unit Market Shares
Table 7.1: PC Demand Factors
Table 7.2: USA Ultimate PC Penetration in 2020
Table 7.3: 2020 USA PC Replacement Sales Scenario
Table 7.4: Ultimate PC Penetration Factors
Table 7.5: PC Forecast Assumptions
Table 7.6: PC Product Trend Assumptions
Table 8.1: PC Shipment Forecast Content
Table 8.2: PC Vendor Forecast Content
Table 8.3: USA PC Market Summary
Table 8.4: N. America PC Market Summary
Table 8.5: W. Europe PC Market Summary
Table 8.6: E. Europe PC Market Summary
Table 8.7: Europe PC Market Summary
Table 8.8: Asia Pacific PC Market Summary
Table 8.9: Latin American PC Market Summary
Table 8.10: M. East/Africa PC Market Summary
Table 8.11: Worldwide PC Market Summary
Table 8.12: Acer
Table 8.13: Apple Computer
Table 8.14: Compaq Computer-Historical Data
Table 8.15: Dell Computer
Table 8.16: Gateway
Table 8.17: Hewlett Packard
Table 8.18: IBM Historical Data
Table 8.19: Lenovo
Table 8.20: NEC
Table 8.21: Toshiba
Table 9.1: PC-Related Newsletters
Table 9.2: PC-Related Magazines
Table 9.3: PC-Related Websites
Table 9.4: PC-Related Organizations


Companies Mentioned - Acer - Apple - Compaq - Dell - Gateway - Hewlett-Packard - IBM - Lenovo - NEC - Toshiba


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