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Cancer Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds: Colorectal Cancer Chapter
Espicom Business Intelligence Ltd, May 2007, Pages: 124


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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the US in both sexes and accounts for around 10% of all cancer deaths. In the seven countries analysed (the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK), we estimate over 491,000 people had been diagnosed with CRC in 2006 and this will increase to more than 539,000 by 2012.

The CRC market was estimated to be worth US$5.3 billion in 2006, with a growth rate of 19% YoY accounting for around 11% of global cancer sales. According to PhRMA, it was the eighth most actively-researched cancer in the US in 2006 and accounted for 10% of all cancer projects in clinical development.

The market is currently driven by the use of several drug classes. Chemotherapeutic agents, 5-FU (generic), Camptosar (Pfizer), Eloxatin (sanofi-aventis) and Xeloda (Roche) and targeted therapies, Avastin (Genentech/Roche), Erbitux (ImClone Systems/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck Serono) and Vectibix (Amgen) are utilised, although treatment is often limited by dose-dependent toxicities.

The market is growing organically as new combinations of these agents are assessed to find the optimal treatment for various stages of the disease both in advanced and adjuvant treatment, and pivotal Phase III trials will have a significant impact on the future uptake of these products within the market.

Key questions answered include:
There are six promising drugs in Phase III clinical development that have a high probability (greater than 50%) of reaching the market by 2012. What are their prospects and revenue potential?
How much is the CRC market expected to grow by 2012?
What impact will sanofi-aventis’ agreement with Oxford BioMedica have on the development and commercialisation of TroVax?
Roche looks set to dominate the CRC treatment market in the short term with Xeloda and Avastin – what are the prospects for Erbitux (BMS/Merck Serono/ImClone Systems) and Eloxatin (sanofi-aventis)?
Which companies are leading the way in the development of VEGF inhibitors, and what are their strengths and weaknesses?
CURRENT PRODUCTS EVALUATED AND FORECAST
CHEMOTHERAPY
Camptosar (Pfizer)
Eloxatin (sanofi-aventis)
Xeloda (Roche)
IMMUNOTHERAPY
Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
Erbitux (BMS/Merck Serono/ImClone Systems)
Vectibix (Amgen)
UP AND COMING PRODUCTS EVALUATED
PHASE III
Recentin (AstraZeneca)
Vatalanib (Bayer Schering Pharma/Novartis)
CoFactor (ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals)
Davanat (Pro Pharmaceutical)
OncoVax (Intracel Resources)
TroVax (Oxford BioMedica/sanofi-aventis)

PHASE II
Alimta (Eli Lilly)
HyCAMP (Alchemia)
We forecast the number of patients with CRC in leading markets, (US, Europe and Japan) will increase by nearly 12.5% from 2005-2012 due to the improvements in screening, early treatment and optimisation of drug regimens.



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