Contents:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE FACTS What is PCA and why are we interested in it? Figure 51: Schematic of prostate gland PATIENT STATISTICS Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future Figure 52: Incidence and mortality rates of PCA in selected countries (2002E) PATIENT MODEL The number of patients with PCA will have a CAGR (2005A-2012E) of 48% Table 51: Summary of Patient Population Forecasts DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS GLOBAL CANCER MARKET Figure 53: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006 (US$472 billion) Figure 54: Global Cancer Sales 2004A-2012E THE PCA MARKET Figure 55: Global Sales Split (2006) US market Figure 56: PCA US Drugs Sales Split (2006) European market Figure 57: PCA European Drugs Sales Split (2006) Japanese market The major players Figure 58: Market Share of PCA Players by Sales (Dec 2006) Players and Products in 2006 Players and products in 2012 Figure 59: Global Market Share of PCA Players by Sales (Dec 2012E) CURRENT TREATMENTS Watchful waiting/active monitoring Surgery Radiotherapy Hormonal treatment Chemotherapy Leading Brands Table 52: Comparison of Leading PCA Agents Current Products’ Patent Exposure Table 53: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS LHRH analogues Anti-androgens Chemotherapy LHRH Analogues Eligard (sanofi-aventis/Astellas Pharma) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Lupron (TAP Pharmaceutical Products) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Zoladex (AstraZeneca) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Anti-Androgens Casodex (AstraZeneca) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Chemotherapy Taxotere (sanofi-aventis) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005A–2012E Table 54: Sales Forecasts of Current Leading PCA Drugs (US$ millions) Model assumptions NEW DRUGS IN R&D Table 55: Drugs in Development to Treat PCA Drugs for PCA prevention 5-Alpha Reductase Inhibitors Proscar (Merck & Co) and Avodart (GlaxoSmithKline) Non-Steroidal Selective Oestrogen Receptor Modulator (SORM) Acapodene (GTx) ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS Table 56: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat PCA Chemotherapy Hormone/Vitamin D therapies Targeted therapies Vaccines Chemotherapy Satraplatin (GPC Biotech/Pharmion/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Hormone/Vitamin D therapies Asentar (Novacea) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Degarelix (Ferring/Astellas Pharma) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Targeted Therapies Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Xinlay (Abbott Laboratories) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Vaccines GVAX (Cell Genesys) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Provenge (Dendreon) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III PCA DRUGS 2006A–2012E Table 57: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental PCA Drugs (US$ million) Model assumptions ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS Table 58: New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat PCA Angiogenesis inhibitors Gene therapy Hormonal therapies Monoclonal antibodies Angiogenesis inhibitors AS1404 (Antisoma/Novartis) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis CC-4047 (Celgene) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis ZD4054 (AstraZeneca) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Gene Therapy Genasense (Genta) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Hormonal Therapies Ozarelix (AEterna Zentaris/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Monoclonal Antibodies Ipilimumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Medarex) Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action Figure 510: Schematic of MDX-010’s mechanism of action Proof of concept/clinical data Management/clinical expertise Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class Filings and approval Sales forecasts and assumptions Competitor Ratio Analysis Other Interesting Phase II Drugs Recentin (AstraZeneca) Gleevec/Glivec (Novartis) GTI-2040 (Lorus Therapeutics) Ixabepilone (Bristol-Myers Squibb) Zactima (AstraZeneca) GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II PCA DRUGS 2006A – 2012E Table 59: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental PCA Drugs (US$ millions) Model assumptions COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – PRODUCTS Table 510: Rating Score for Clinical Rating Figure 511: CR Analysis of PCA Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – COMPANIES Figure 512: CR Analysis of PCA Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Company WINNERS & LOSERS Table 511: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the PCA Market by 2012 Winners (alphabetical) Losers DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS Table 512: Drugs Discontinued (or ‘on hold’) from Clinical Development in PCA APPENDIX 1 Figure 513: TNM Staging System for PCA APPENDIX 2 PCA Tumour Grading System – Gleason Score APPENDIX 3 Phase transition probability Table 513: Probability of Launch APPENDIX 4 Patient Model Table 514: Summary of US PCA Patient Population Forecasts Table 515: Summary of Europe (Top 5) PCA Patient Population Forecasts Table 16: Summary of Japan PCA Patient Population Forecasts APPENDIX 5 Table 517: Global PCA Drugs Sales 2005A-20012E (US$ millions) APPENDIX 6 Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria Table 518: Key PCA Drugs on the Market by 2012 Glosary REFERENCES ACRONYMS

Summary:

Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer in the US and the third most common cancer worldwide. More than two million men in the US suffer with prostate cancer. Find out more about market developments in this chapter of Cancer Drug Discoveries.