Online Movie Downloads: Analysis and Forecasts

"The Promised Land for movie viewing has been and continues to be the living room. Online movie distributors that deny the truth of this statement are doomed to failure; those that embrace this truth must find a way to reach the primary home TV."

Over the last two years, online video availability has increased at a frantic pace. Though user-generated content has taken the web by storm, ‘high-value' content such as full-length post-theatrical movie releases and the online services that distribute them continue to languish.

The last year has seen major changes in both the availability of online video and the business models used to distribute this content. Given the pervasive nature of broadband in the US today, numerous start-ups have emerged, each promising to deliver a different kind of video experience to the PC or Internet-connected TV or set-top box.

Of course, short-term success for the online movie download (or OMD) market depends upon a number of factors, but none more important than Apple's marketing efforts over the next few years. This report profiles all of the relevant major players in the space; offers an analysis on the quality of consumer readiness compared to other types of services; and provides key strategic insights for each of the major players regarding which plans will ultimately fail and which will succeed. It also discusses several interesting new start-ups which plan to offer full-length movie downloads and forecasts demand for total OMD sell-thru units and revenue from 2007 through 2011, including AppleTV.

Key Findings From the Report:

- The majority of full-length movies sold through iTunes without the use of AppleTV will involve a large number of users purchasing a small number of movies. However, for movie sales through iTunes using Apple TV, the majority of sales will occur among a small number of users purchasing a greater number of movies.
- Although Apple will dominate the electronic movie sell-thru market (even greater than its hold on the digital music market), its entry into this space will ultimately open the door for other services to achieve viability which would otherwise be out of reach.
- Total annual revenue from the sale of online movies in the U.S. is estimated to reach $1.8 billion by the end of 2011, and cumulative revenue is expected to reach $4.4 billion through 2011. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

1.0 Introduction
1.1 Understanding the Online Digital Video Landscape
1.2 Making Sense of the Video on Demand Universe
1.3 Important Distinctions between the Digital Video and Music Markets
1.4 Major Issues with the Online Movie Download Market to Date
1.4.1 Despite Improvements, Few Users
1.4.2 Viewing Movies on the PC - No Mass Market Appeal!
1.4.3 The Threat to DVD Retailers

2.0 What’s Driving the Online Movie Download Market
2.1 Existing Pirating
2.2 Alternative Media Strategies by PC Players (Especially Apple)
2.3 Movie Studios Natural Desire for Alternative Revenue Streams
2.4 The Approval of Sonic Solutions’ Qflix System

3.0 What’s Stifling the Online Movie Download Market
3.1 The Threat of More Pirating
3.2 The Diffusion of Unnecessary Innovations
3.3 Lack of Living Room Presence, e.g. the Set-top Box
3.4 Traditional Service Providers Own the Living Room
3.5 Lack of Titles

4.0 Major Player Profiles and Discussions
4.1 Key Event Timeline

4.2 Movielink
4.2.1 Overview
4.2.2 The Money
4.2.3 The Model
4.2.4 The Evolution
4.2.4.1 The Move from Rentals to Purchased Downloads
4.2.4.2 Introduction of Burn-to-DVD Features
4.2.4.3 Movielink in the Living Room: Akimbo, AT&T, & EchoStar
4.2.5 Issues and Challenges
4.2.6 The Future

4.3 CinemaNow
4.3.1 Overview
4.3.2 The Money
4.3.3 The Model
4.3.4 The Evolution
4.3.4.1 The Move from Rentals to Purchased Downloads
4.3.4.2 Introduction of Burn-to-DVD Features
4.3.5 Issues and Challenges
4.3.6 The Future

4.4 Amazon’s Unbox
4.4.1 Overview
4.4.2 Brief History
4.4.3 The Model
4.4.4 Issues and Challenges
4.4.5 The Future

4.5 Apple iTunes
4.5.1 Overview
4.5.2 Brief History
4.5.3 The Model
4.5.4 Issues and Challenges
4.5.5 The Future

4.6 AOL
4.6.1 Overview
4.6.1.1 Broadband TV
4.6.1.2 Broadband Movie Downloads
4.6.2 The Model
4.6.3 Issues and Challenges
4.6.4 The Future

4.7 Wal-Mart
4.7.1 Overview and Brief History
4.7.2 The Model
4.7.3 The Future

5.0 Other Relevant Players
5.1.1 BitTorrent
5.1.2 Wurld Media
5.1.3 Vongo
5.1.4 Guba
5.1.5 ClickStar
5.1.6 Xbox Live (Microsoft)

6.0 Forecasts
6.1 Key Forecast Assumptions
6.1.1 Hardware: Apple is the Market
6.1.2 The Pay-TV Influence
6.1.3 The Rest of the OMD Services
6.1.4 The Gaming Console Angle
6.1.5 The Impact of Dynamic Variables
6.2 Forecasting Broadband Households
6.3 Apple TV Forecasts
6.3.1 Primary Research
6.3.2 Apple TV Forecast
6.4 Unit Sales Forecasts
6.4.1 Purchases Made Via Apple TV
6.4.2 Sales Forecast by Channel
6.5 Average Sales Price for Online Movie Downloads
6.6 Total Revenue Forecasts

7.0 Reflections and Recommendations

List of Figures

Figure 1 The Alternative Universe of On-Demand Video
Figure 2 Total Album Sales by Type - US (2001 - 2005)
Figure 3 Timeline for Key Events in Alternative/Online Movie Services
Figure 4 Movielink’s Rental & Sales Model
Figure 5 CinemaNow’s Rental & Sales Model
Figure 6 Unbox’s Rental & Sales Model
Figure 7 iTunes’ Movie Sales Model
Figure 8 AOL’s Movie Sales Model
Figure 9 Wal-Mart Service Model
Figure 10 U.S. Broadband Households (2004 - 2011)
Figure 11 Evaluating TAM vs. Take Rate for iTunes-to-TV Movie Download Service
Figure 12 Apple TV Annual Sales - US (2007 - 2011)
Figure 13 Apple TV Cumulative Sales - US (2007 - 2011)
Figure 14 Forecast for the Number of Apple TV Households - US (2007 - 2011) 65
Figure 15 Average Number of DVDs and iTunes Movies Purchased Among Apple TV Households - US (2007 - 2011)
Figure 16 Annual Online Movie Download Sales by Channel - US (2007 - 2011)
Figure 17 Cumulative Online Movie Download Sales by Channel - US (2006 - 2011)
Figure 18 Average Sales Price - OMD Sell-Thru (2006 - 2011)
Figure 19 Total Annual Revenue - OMD Sell-Thru Market - US (2006 - 2011)
Figure 20 Total Cumulative Revenue - OMD Sell-Thru Market - US (2006 - 2011)

List of Tables

Table 1 Rating the Current Movie Viewing Options - Part I
Table 2 Rating the Current Movie Viewing Options - Part II
Table 3 Average Number of DVDs Purchased in the Last Six Months Among Apple TV Intenders

- Amazon’s Unbox
- AOL
- Apple iTunes
- BitTorrent
- CinemaNow
- ClickStar
- Guba
- Key Event Timeline
- Movielink
- Vongo
- Wal-Mart
- Wurld Media
- Xbox Live (Microsoft)