Restaurant Industry in Istanbul - Outlook to 2025

Driven by Changing Consumer Behavior and Rebound in Tourism Activity

The report titled “Restaurant Industry in Istanbul - Outlook to 2025: Driven by changing consumer behaviour and rebound in tourism activity” provides an in-depth analysis of the restaurant industry in Istanbul – focusing on aspects including study of food and beverage industry in Turkey along with HORECA segment, snapshot on online food delivery platforms in Turkey, the market size of HORECA segment in Istanbul, social and economic demographic of Istanbul, district-wise evaluation of Istanbul for attractiveness to restaurant business basis customer cohorts, ecosystem supportiveness and business operating expenses and analysis of the various categories of restaurants (QSRs, Fine Dining, Casual Dining, Hotel based Restaurants, Shisha Lounges, Nightclubs, Multi-cuisine, Coffee-shops, Patisserie and Desert Parlours) basis business, operational & financial parameters in Istanbul. The report concludes with impact of COVID-19, encompassing trends and challenges shaping the future outlook of the restaurants and F&B industry in Turkey and recommendations from analysts to sail through the difficult times of COVID-19 and economic downturn.

Economic Outlook of Turkey

Turkey has a population of 84.3 Million people (2020), with a projected population of 90 Million people by the year 2025. The country has been witnessing a steady depreciation of its currency, the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar, with the USD/TL exchange rate having appreciated from TL 2.18 in 2014, to 7.90 in Q2 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is indicative of the rising inflation in the country, with the metric having gone from a value of 103.06 in 4th quarter of 2015, to 206.82 in the 2nd quarter of 2021. Further, there exist excess levels of current account deficit along with low forex reserves; however there are positives in the pipeline as well. Short term measures include reduction in interest rates by the TCMB (Central Bank of Turkey) to promote growth revival and easy credit flow to the customers, along with an expansionary credit policy and a stimulus package worth USD 15.4 Billion, including loan moratoriums and social security programs.

Overview of Food and Beverage Industry and HORECA Ecosystem

The CAGR for the F&B industry of Turkey (in USD denomination) is projected to be ~2.4% from the year 2020 to the year 2025.

People spend roughly 20% of their income on F&B related expenditures, along with having high preferences of dining out. There are around 51,000 food companies in the country, along with 649 beverage firms, 150,000+ fast food outlets and more than 3,000 hotels employing more than a million people in the year 2020. More than 85% of the food and beverage ingredients are imported. Turkey attracted around 16 million foreign visitors in the year 2020, whose spending contributed around 23% of the total expenditure on F&B activities for the year.

Restaurants contribute around 10% to the total market size of the F&B industry in Turkey, and the industry itself is expected to witness a CAGR of 11% from the year 2020 to the year 2025.

Demographics of Istanbul

Around 18.5% of the population of the population of Turkey lives in Istanbul, and around 39.3% of the foreigners who visit Turkey land in Istanbul. Istanbul also contributes close to 39% alone to the Turkish restaurant industry. 97% of the households in Istanbul have access to internet services, and the average monthly household income in Istanbul is around TL 7,613, or about 550 US Dollars.

Istanbul is a preferred destination for foreign visitors from Western Asia and Europe due to its location advantages, with Germany being the leading country with 7.5% share of the total foreign visitor arrivals. This is followed by Iran, Russia, Iraq, France, UK, USA, KSA, China and Kuwait. The European side of the city is the most preferred tourist spot, with >85% of the foreign visitors in Istanbul.

Categories of Restaurants

Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) leads the restaurant categories basis end-user spend. It also has the highest number of outlets in comparison to any other category in Istanbul and also fetches higher weekly footfalls. It has been observed the Franchise model is the preferred type of expansion which is being carried out across QSRs, Casual Dining Restaurants and Coffee-Shop categories.

The occasional nature of demand across categories such as desert parlors, cuisine-specific restaurants and nightclubs leads to them contributing less to the end-user spend in the F&B industry, collectively.

Evaluation of Districts in Istanbul

While Esenyurt is the most populated district in Istanbul, with a population of around 954,600 people, Fatih witnesses the highest foreign visitor count, followed by Beyoglu and Sisli; lending such districts a key avenue for restaurants business.

Restaurant Industry in Istanbul Future Outlook and Projections

The Restaurant Industry in Istanbul is anticipated to grow with improvement in macroeconomic indicators coupled with a rebound in tourism activity. Over the forecast period FY’21-FY’25, the Restaurant Industry in Istanbul is further anticipated to showcase an upward trend in terms of end-user spend, which will in turn also drive the market size of the F&B industry in Turkey upwards, over the next 5 years. For the next 5 years, Franchise driven expansion is set to shape the outlook of restaurants industry with QSRs, Casual and Fine dining categories dominating end-user spends in Istanbul.