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The Next Billion: How Emerging Markets are Shaping the Mobile Industry
Pyramid Research, Inc, Oct 2007, Pages: 66
At the end of 2006, there were nearly 2.8bn mobile subscriptions around the world, translating to a penetration rate of 44%. The share of the population with mobile subscriptions is far higher in the richer economies of the world than in the emerging markets — regions such as Western Europe exceed 100%, whereas in most of Africa and Southeast Asia penetration rates average less than 20%. It is thus evident that the bulk of future mobile growth will come from emerging economies.
Indeed, Pyramid Research forecasts that the global mobile market will add “the next billion” subscriptions by year-end 2009 and expects roughly 85% of the next billion to come from emerging markets.
This executive-level report analyzes the next billion mobile subscriptions in order to provide clients with a clearer understanding of the significance of the emerging markets in future mobile market growth. It offers trends in penetration and total subscriptions as well as figures for such measures as user penetration, churn rates, data ARPS and MOUs for 20 key countries. The report also compares developed market and emerging market forecasts for mobile demand through 2010 by both total subscriptions (prepaid and postpaid) and ARPS (voice and data), as well as forecasts for revenue and other measures.
Key questions answered
-Who are the next billion subscribers?
-Where do the next billion live?
-What do they earn and spend?
-What do they want and need in terms of their telecommunications offerings?
-What will be the impact on operators?
-What will be the impact on handset and infrastructure suppliers?
Target audience
Mobile operators in emerging markets
Assess the mobile market implications of long-term demographic and economic trends to develop a successful growth strategy. Compare forecasts of metrics for 20 key countries, quantify market opportunities, and develop a top-level view of where the global mobile market is going. Benchmark economic indicators and opportunities in markets where you are active against other emerging markets in order to decide whether to consolidate your position or expand into new markets.
Mobile operators considering emerging markets
Use the report’s forecasts on demographic and economic developments to form a successful growth strategy for emerging countries that builds on global long-term trends and opportunities. Identify emerging markets where you can leverage your strengths by drawing on the report’s regional indicators and mobile metrics for 20 key countries. Compare forecasts of metrics for markets, quantify the opportunities, and develop a top-level view of where the global mobile market is going.
Vendors
Assess the implications of long-term demographic and economic trends to target product development for high-growth markets. Use data and voice ARPS, market revenue, and other forecasts to focus on specific countries and the most valuable market segments within them, and to construct a long-term strategy that builds on your strengths.
Financial services, investment firms
This report will help you assess the long-term financial prospects for mobile service providers and telecom equipment vendors at a global level. Pyramid Research’s forecasts of metrics such as mobile subscriber and user penetration will help you make strategic decisions to maximize the return on your investments.
Countries profiled in this report
Algeria
Argentina
Brazil
China
Egypt
Germany
India
Indonesia
Iran
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Nigeria
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Turkey
US
Vietnam
About the authors
Leslie Arathoon, Vice President of Research
Leslie Arathoon is Vice President of Research for Pyramid Research. In her role, Leslie is responsible for managing
Pyramid’s entire portfolio of Research, Advisory and Consulting services. Prior to assuming her current role, Leslie
was Director of Product Strategy for Pyramid Research and Director of Latin America. Pyramid’s Research’s Advisory
Services provide detailed coverage and analysis of the communications, media and technology industries in 90-plus
countries worldwide. She is based in the company’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Leslie has developed forecasting models to support Pyramid’s core Advisory services, including Pyramid’s mobile data
and mobile operator KPI forecasting models, Pyramid’s fixed communications forecasting model, Pyramid’s fixed operator market share model and Pyramid’s handset sell-through forecasting model.
In her 10-year tenure at Pyramid Research, Leslie has worked on a wide variety of consulting projects ranging from
market sizing and market segmentation to market entry strategy and new product positioning to valuations, due diligence and partner identification projects, among others.
Contributor: Elizabeth Bramson-Boudreau
Elizabeth Bramson-Boudreau is an independent consultant based in Paris. She previously held the position of Director
of Research and Senior Analyst for Pyramid Research. Prior experience includes two years with the Equity Research
Division of Smith Barney (now Citigroup). She has an MSc from the London School of Economics and a BA from
Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania.
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