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2007 Global Optoelectronics Industry Market Report and Forecast


Description: Annual review and forecast of global optoelectronics markets

The optoelectronics industry continues to be ‘strong and steady,’ underscoring OIDA’s description of the industry in last years summary, ‘optomism.’ The following observation is clear from the industry activity over this past year:

At OIDA, we are now seeing the unanticipated results of three to four decades of research, development, and manufacturing in optoelectronics. In a growing number of cases, the applications of technologies have moved into vastly different markets than those for which they were originally conceived…

Given that many new applications are consumer based, the sheer volumes of these new opportunities are driving the field to new heights every year. The trend toward convergence is progressing well with products that employ a number of optoelectronic devices that typically would include displays, light emitting diodes (LED), detectors, image sensors, and lasers. One of the big drivers for this convergence is the liquid crystal display (LCD), a key optoelectronics component, which can be now found in a number of consumer products ranging from mobile phones to televisions.

This year’s summary is the most comprehensive worldwide market overview of optoelectronics available to the industry. New for the 9th edition, OIDA has extended the traditional trend forecasts to 10 years in many of the covered markets.

In 2006, the optoelectronics market achieved new highs with optoelectronics-enabled and components market reaching $565 billion in total revenue, a 14.5% increase from $494 billion in 2005. OIDA forecasts strong and steady growth over the next decade for the optoelectronics-enabled and components markets, with revenue expected to surpass $1.2 trillion by 2017. This is a 2007-2017 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7%. The biggest driver for the growth of this market is LCD displays, which will enable a variety of consumer-based products, from TVs to mobile phones to digital assistants.

Within optoelectronics-enabled products, the growth drivers over the next decade will be solar, computing/processing, and consumer displays/TVs, projected to achieve a 2007-2017 CAGR of 17.3%, 5.6%, and 6.3%, respectively. The forecast for their combined total revenue in 2017 exceeds $425 billion. In 2006, these three markets achieved revenue of $198 billion.

The yearly growth for optoelectronics-enabled products and systems in 2006 ranged from 8% to 43%. Growth was led by environment/sensing (43.1%) and medical care/welfare (28.6%). The two biggest revenue segments, consumer display/TV and computing/ processing, demonstrated solid growth of 20.4% and 8.1%, respectively, from 2005 to 2006.

Key findings in this year’s report include:

1. Flat panel display (FPD) revenue will grow to nearly $200 billion over the next decade, driven predominantly by a-Si thin-film transistor (TFT) liquid crystal displays (LCD) for consumer products such as TVs.
2. White high brightness light emitting diodes (HB LED) will fuel growth of the LED markets to surpass $14 billion by 2017. The market will be driven by solid-state lighting, automotive, and signs/displays.
3. The laser market is forecast to grow steadily from slightly over $6 billion in 2006 to nearly double that figure by the end of the next decade. The nondiode market is expected to surpass the diode market in the 2011 timeframe fueled by materials process, industrial, and medical applications.
4. The optical communications market achieved $19 billion in 2006 and is expected to grow to near $40 billion by 2017, with a 2007-2017 CAGR of 7%. This growth is led by strong growth in optical networking equipment that evolves the network architecture to be more efficient through the use of dynamic optoelectronic components.
5. Optoelectronic transceivers are expected to grow quickly, from slightly over $1 billion in revenue in 2006 to over $6 billion in 2017. Key drivers will be Ethernet/Fibre Channel 10 Gbps technology. Over the next decade, the emergence of 40 Gbps modules will offer new and exciting growth opportunities.
6. Solid-state lighting devices will grow to over 30% of the lighting market by 2017, thereby giving competition to the incumbent incandescent and fluorescent luminaires. The solid-state lighting market is forecast to grow to more than $60 billion over the next decade and be composed predominantly of HBLEDs. Organic light emitting di-odes (OLED) are expected to penetrate this market slowly due to their high cost structure.

Data for this year’s summary was collected from OIDA member companies, non-member companies, market research company partners, and members of the International Optoelectronics Associations (IOA). Expanded chapters in this year’s report include optoelectronics in wireless consumer products and OLEDs. The report also provides comparisons of decadal forecast data with OITDA in Japan and PIDA in Taiwan.

For this 9th annual optoelectronics market review, OIDA respectfully acknowledges the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Microsystems Technology Office (MTO) for their continued interest and support.

OIDA also respectfully acknowledges Dr. Phil Wright who has contributed significantly to, and acted as OIDA’s chief analyst for, the review. In particular, Phil has led the fore-casting and review of optoelectronics in wireless, OLED, solar, medical, image sensor, LED, and wireless consumer product technology. OIDA is also very thankful to Edina Varsa for her devoted after-hours effort in synthesizing this summary. OIDA also acknowledges the support from David Iams, Marko Slusarczuk, Andy Yang, David Huff, and Gordon Day for advice, editing, and review.


Contents: Table of Figures
Tables

Executive Summary

1 Optoelectronics Market Summary
1.1 Global Optoelectronics Market Summary
1.2 Global OE Components Review
1.3 Overall Optoelectronics Trends

2 Laser Diodes and Nondiode Lasers
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Nondiode Laser Revenue by Segment
2.3 Nondiode Laser Forecast by Segment
2.3.1 Extended Forecast Nondiode Lasers
2.3.2 Nondiode Lasers Revenue by Laser Type
2.3.3 Nondiode Lasers Forecast by Laser Type
2.3.4 Nondiode Laser Market Segmentation
2.4 Laser Diode Overview
2.5 Laser Diode Revenue by Segment
2.6 Laser Diode Forecast by Segment
2.6.1 Extended Laser Diode Forecast
2.6.2 Laser Diode Revenue by Laser Type
2.6.3 Segmentation of the Key Laser Diode Markets
2.6.4 Laser Diode Revenue Forecast over Next Decade

3 High Brightness LEDs
3.1 Market Background
3.2 White HB LEDs Will Fuel the Next Wave of Growth
3.3 Driving Factors for HB LED Superior Revenue Performance
3.3.1 New Applications
3.3.2 HB LED Manufacturing
3.3.3 Manufacture, Competition, and Intellectual Property
3.4 HB LED Market Overview
3.4.1 HB LED Overview of Revenue and Forecast by Market
3.4.2 HB LED Market Segments
3.5 HB LED Materials
3.5.1 HB LED Historic Material Trends
3.5.2 White HB LED Material Trends
3.5.3 White HB LEDs and Binning
3.5.4 High-Power HB LED Developments and Issues
3.6 HB LED Product Package Type
3.7 HB LEDs Key Market Applications: Mobile Appliances
3.7.1 Mobile Phones
3.7.2 Other Mobile Appliances: Digital Cameras, PDAs, and MP3 Players
3.7.3 HB LEDs Mobile Appliances Summary
3.8 Signs and Displays
3.8.1 Signs and Displays: Full-Color Displays
3.8.2 Signs and Displays: Single-Color Text Signs
3.8.3 Signs and Displays: LCD Monitor Backlights
3.9 Automotive Lighting
3.9.1 Automotive Lighting: Interior Lighting
3.9.2 Automotive Lighting: Exterior Lighting
3.9.3 Automotive Lighting: Forward or Front Lighting
3.9.4 Automotive Lighting: Truck and Bus Exterior Lighting
3.10 HB LEDs in Traffic Signals
3.11 Illumination Using HB LEDs
3.11.1 Architectural Lighting

4 Displays and Related Products
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Market Overview
4.3 Technology Overview
4.3.1 CRTs
4.3.2 Plasma Display Panels (PDPs)
4.3.3 LCD Backlight Technologies
4.3.4 Rear Projection TVs
4.3.5 LCD Substrates
4.3.6 Large Display Technology Summary
4.3.7 Organic Light Emitting Diodes

5 Telecommunications and Broadband
5.1 Industry Overview
5.2 Telecommunications Markets
5.3 International Markets
5.4 Landline Markets
5.5 New Technologies
5.5.1 Broadband over Powerline
5.5.2 Municipalities
5.5.3 Fiber Optics and Optoelectronics
5.5.4 Fixed Wireless
5.5.5 Satellite Technology
5.5.6 Mobile Wireless
5.5.7 Internet Access
5.6 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
5.7 Telecommunications Status
5.7.1 Telecom Legislative Issues
5.8 Telecommunications Cable Markets
5.9 Broadband Access
5.10 Methodology and Terminology
5.11 Key Technical Factors Driving U.S. FTTP Deployments
5.11.1 Technical Issues
5.11.2 Technological Trends of Municipalities, Utilities, and CLECs

6 Optical Communications
6.1 General Overview
6.2 Optical Network Equipment
6.3 Fiber and Cable Equipment
6.4 Optical Communications Components
6.4.1 Overview
6.4.2 Transceivers
6.4.3 Programmable Wavelength Optical Communications Components
6.5 Fiber Optic Connectors
6.6 Transceiver Form Factor Types
6.7 Transceiver Market Overview

7 Image Sensors
7.1 Market Overview
7.2 Image Sensors Market Applications
7.2.1 Digital Cameras
7.2.2 Camera Phones and Other Small Multifunction Handhelds
7.2.3 Digital Cinema
7.2.4 Security and Surveillance
7.2.5 Interactive Video Games and Toys
7.2.6 Manufacturing
7.2.7 Automotive
7.2.8 Medical
7.2.9 Image Sensor Integration and Intelligence

8 Medical and Health Applications
8.1 Market Trends
8.2 Emerging High Brightness LED Applications
8.2.1 Red HB LED Medical and Health Applications
8.2.2 Yellow HB LED Medical and Health Applications
8.2.3 Blue HB LED Medical and Health Applications
8.2.4 UV LED Developments for Medical and Health Applications
8.2.5 Ultraviolet LED Medical Applications
8.3 Lasers for Medical Applications
8.3.1 Laser Medical Applications
8.3.2 Lasers for Hair Removal

9 UV Materials, Green LEDs, and Light Extraction
9.1 III-V Nitride Based Materials
9.2 UV LED Developments and Materials
9.3 UV LED Applications
9.4 Green LED Considerations

10 Venture Capital
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Venture Capital Status in the United States
10.2.1 Historical Trends
10.2.2 Venture Capital Investment Trend
10.2.3 Venture Capital Investment by Sector
10.2.4 Internet Technology Investments
10.2.5 U.S. Investments by Region
10.2.6 U.S. Investments by Stage of Company
10.2.7 Technology Liquidity Events
10.2.8 Optoelectronics Start-up Overview
10.2.9 Optoelectronics Sensor Start-up Funding
10.2.10 Top IPOs in 2007
10.2.11 Most Active Investors
10.2.12 Optoelectronics Venture Activity
10.2.13 Dedicated Cleantech VC Funding
10.2.14 Optoelectronics Venture Funding, 2003-2005
10.2.15 Optoelectronics M&A Deals, 2003-2005
10.2.16 Investor Location Deals

11 Nanotechnology
11.1 History and Background
11.2 Nanotechnology
11.3 Nanophotonic Technologies and Applications
11.3.1 Flat Panel Displays
11.3.2 High Brightness LEDs
11.3.3 Photovoltaics
11.3.4 Biochemical Fluidic Sensors
11.3.5 Laser and Biomedical Tools
11.3.6 Diode Lasers
11.3.7 Photonic Passive Device Technology
11.3.8 Photonic Silicon Chip Interconnects
11.3.9 Photonic Silicon Optocouplers
11.3.10 Microstructured or Specialty Fibers
11.4 Key Differentiators for Nanotechnology
11.5 Nanotechnology Commercialization
11.6 Photonic Sensors and Nanofluids Overview
11.7 Biophotonics Market Forecast

12 Photovoltaics
12.1 Solar Market Overview
12.2 Effect of Government Incentives
12.3 Solar Cell Forecast
12.4 Silicon and Solar Cells
12.5 Thin Film Solar Cells
12.6 Multi-Junction Solar Cells
12.7 Photovoltaic Concentrators
12.8 Nanocrystal Solar Cells
12.9 Printing Approaches to Solar Cells
12.10 On-Grid and Off-Grid Solar Systems
12.11 On-Grid Solar Generating Systems
12.12 Residential On-Grid Systems
12.13 Commercial On-Grid Systems
12.14 Off-Grid Solar Generating Systems
12.15 Remote Industrial and Habitation Systems
12.16 Solar Power for Standalone Consumer Products
12.17 VARs and the Solar Energy Supply Chain

13 Defense R&D in Optoelectronics
13.1 Defense Introduction
13.2 DARPA
13.3 DARPA Organization
13.3.1 DARPA Offices
13.4 Photonic Technologies at DARPA
13.4.1 Optical Sensing
13.4.2 Optoelectronic A/D Interfaces
13.4.3 Optoelectronics Digital Processing
13.4.4 Optoelectronic Communications
13.4.5 Laser-Based Systems
13.4.6 Solar Energy
13.4.7 Molecular Photonics
13.5 University Photonic Programs
13.5.1 Universities Photonics Research
13.5.2 Photonics Technology Access Program (PTAP)
13.6 The DARPA Process for Initiating New Programs

14 Fiber Sensors
14.1 Markets, Revenues, and Forecasts
14.2 Distributed Fiber Optic Sensors vs. Point Sensors
14.3 Distributed Fiber Optic Sensors Overview
14.4 Distributed Fiber Optic Sensors Technologies
14.4.1 Speckle Pattern Modal Interference
14.4.2 Bragg Grating Sensor Arrays
14.4.3 Interferometric Distributed Sensors
14.4.4 Raman and Brillouin Scattering
14.5 Distributed Fiber Optic Sensors Outlook

15 Organic Light Emitting Diodes
15.1 Market Background
15.2 OLED Market Overview and Trends
15.2.1 Displays
15.2.2 Lighting
15.3 Market / Industry Drivers and Dynamics
15.3.1 Competitive Pressures - Will 2007 be a breakout year for AMOLED displays?
15.3.2 OLED Display Manufacturing
15.3.3 White OLEDs Will Complement HB LEDs in Lighting Applications
15.4 OLED Market Forecast
15.4.1 Overview
15.4.2 OLED Lighting Market Overview
15.4.3 OLED Lighting Forecast by Market
15.4.4 OLED Display Market Overview
15.4.5 OLED Display Forecast by Market
15.5 OLED Materials and Devices
15.5.1 Overview
15.5.2 OLED Materials Bakeoff
15.5.3 Seeking the Right OLED Architecture
15.5.4 Scaling OLED Manufacturing for Future Success
15.6 New Technologies and Applications
15.6.1 Flexible OLED Displays
15.6.2 Transparent Lighting and Displays
15.6.3 Carbon Nanotubes for OLED Displays
15.6.4 Organic Optoelectronics

16 Wireless Device Applications of Optoelectronics
16.1 Market Background
16.2 Wireless Device Market Overview and Trends
16.3 Market Drivers and Dynamics
16.3.1 Overview
16.3.2 Will Mobile Broadcast Television Take Off
16.3.3 The World Demands Low Cost Handsets
16.3.4 Design Drives Smart Phones
16.3.5 Email is the Killer App
16.3.6 Summary of Market Drivers, Dynamics and Trends
16.4 Wireless Device Market for Optoelectronics Components and Modules
16.4.1 Overview
16.4.2 Revenue and Forecast
16.5 New Technologies and Applications
16.5.1 Overview
16.5.2 Cinema in Your Pocket
16.5.3 Images are Data
16.5.4 High Fidelity Experience
16.5.5 Optoelectronics and the User Interface
16.5.6 Display Stars of Tomorrow

17 Appendices
17.1 Appendix 1: Acronyms
17.2 Appendix 2: Sources of Market Information
17.3 Appendix 3: Component and Enabled Product Categories and Classification
17.3.1 Component Products
17.3.2 Enabled Equipment Products
17.4 Appendix 4: Benefits of OIDA Membership
17.5 Appendix 5: OIDA Forum and Workshop Reports




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