Streaming Subscription and Download Media 2003 - 2008
AccuStream iMedia Research, July 2007, Pages: 138
This detailed research report breaks out audio, video subscription and download media revenue by music, news, sports, entertainment and aggregation service for the period 2003 - 2008. Music and movies are further analyzed by subscription and download revenue for brands and sites. Revenue by content category is presented in historical, current day and forecast analysis through 2008. Delivery costs (CDN) for music, movies (VHS to HD) are also analyzed.
Top line report findings and analysis:
- The subscription and download media segment (including music, sports, entertainment, movies, TV and news) grew 40% in 2006 to $1.9 billion
- Following a $630 million annual revenue year in 2004, up 131.9% over 2003, the market grew by another triple-digit mark in 2005 to $1.4 billion
- The market is forecast to grow by 39% in 2007 to $2.6 billion
- The market is forecast to grow by 37.3% in 2008 to $3.7 billion
- Music (on the strength of vibrant audio download and streaming subscription growth) is forecast to capture close to 85% of total revenue
- Sports is forecast 5.4%
- Movies 2.2%
- News 1.2%
- Entertainment (including cross platform shows) is forecast at 3.4%
- Real Networks' SuperPass video service 4.1%
- An average music file is approximately 4 megabytes
- At $0.25 per gigabyte transferred, that's equal to 1/10th of $0.01
- The average size of a television show (VHS or DVD quality) is approximately 500 megabytes
- The average download cost per show is estimated at $0.13, or about 12.6% of net revenue (after licensing fees, and before operating expenses)
- The average cost to deliver a DVD quality movie is $0.75, or 37.6% of net revenue (after licensing fees, and before operating expenses). The high costs for HD movies suggest delivery alternatives (i.e. P2P) will gain traction
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Subscription and Download Media Revenue Rose 40% in 2006 to $1.9 Billion
Subscription and Download Media on Pace for Mid Double-Digit Growth in '07
Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Subscription and Download Media Revenue Share: 2007
In the Music Category, the Relatively Small Size of Files, and Cheap Bandwidth Make Online Distribution Attractive
In the Movies and Television Categories, Bandwidth and Distribution Fees are a Much Larger Expense, Leading the Industry to Seek Alternative Methods of Delivery, Including P2p
SECTION ONE
Subscription Streaming and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Market Trends and Overview
Subscription Services Adjust to the Advertising Rebound
Converged Vantage Point: Hollywood Embraces Digital Distribution
Music Subscription and Download Services Pace the Market's Growth
Subscription and Download Media Revenue Rose 40% in 2006 to $1.9 Billion
Subscription and Download Media on Pace for Mid Double-Digit Growth in '07
Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Streaming Subscription and Download Media Revenue by Category: 2007
Subscription and Download Media Revenue Share: 2007
Macro Market Growth Analysis: 2003 - 2008
Category Summary Analysis: 2003
Streaming Subscription and Download Media: 2003
Subscription Streaming Media Sites, Networks, Channels and Leagues
2004
Music Subscription and Download Media Jump to a 60.7% Total Market Share
Streaming Subscription and Download Media Revenue: 2004
Subscription Streaming Media Sites, Networks, Channels, Leagues and Download
Movie and Music Services
2005
Music Continued to Gain Market Share in 2005
Streaming Subscription and Download Media Revenue: 2005
Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2005
Subscription Streaming Media Sites, Networks, Channels, Leagues and Download
Movie and Music Services
2006
Music Cashes In, and Closes in on a $2 Billion Year
Streaming Subscription and Download Media Revenue: 2006
Subscription And Download Media Revenue Share: 2006
Subscription Streaming Media Sites, Networks, Channels, Leagues and Download
Movie and Music Services
Forecasts and Analysis: 2007 - 2008
2007
Music Continues Forward Momentum, Forecast to Reach Sales of $2.2 Billion
Streaming Subscription and Download Media Revenue: 2007
Subscription and Download Media Revenue Share: 2007
Subscription Streaming Media Sites, Networks, Channels, Leagues and Download
Movie and Music Services
2008
Movies Forecast to Gain Share, News Lose Share, and Music to Turn in Big Numbers
Streaming Subscription and Download Media Revenue: 2008
Subscription and Download Media Revenue Share: 2008
Subscription Streaming Media Sites, Networks, Channels, Leagues and Download
Movie and Music Services
SECTION TWO
Macro Market: Double-Digit Growth Forecast: Subscription and Download Market Growing At 37% in '07
Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003-2008:
Sports
Sports Subscription Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Sports Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003-2008:
Sports Subscription and Download Market Growth Trends Analysis: 2003 - 2008
Movies
Movie Download Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Subscription and Download Movie Media Market Revenue: 2003-2008:
Subscription and Download Movie Growth Trends Analysis: 2003 - 2008
Music
Music Subscription and Download Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Music Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003-2008:
Music Subscription and Download Market Growth Trends Analysis: 2003 - 2008
Music Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue Analysis: 2003 - 2008
Music Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue Comparison: 2003 - 2008
Music Subscription And Download Media Market Growth Comparison 2003-2008
News
News Subscription Services Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
News Subscription Market Revenue Growth Trends Analysis: 2003-2008
Entertainment
Entertainment Subscription and Download Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Entertainment Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Entertainment Subscription and Download Media Market Revenue Growth Trends:
2003 - 2008
Superpass
Real Networks' Superpass Video Service Revenue: 2003 - 2008
Real Networks' Superpass Video Service Revenue Trends Analysis: 2003-2008
SECTION THREE
Historical Subscriber Growth and Download Service Performance by Brand, Service, Provider and Category
Sports
NBA.com
NFL.com
Nascar.com
WWE.com PPV Events
Major League Baseball
Music
Emusic.Com
Napster
Itunes
Musicmatch/Yahoo Music
Musicnet/Musicnet on Aol/Musicnow on Aol
Real Networks' Rhapsody Music Services
Real Networks' Superpass Video
Real Networks' Goldpass/Realone/Superpass Video Service
Movies/Television
Adcritic.com
Itunes Video
Movieflix.com
Movielink.com
Cinemanow.com
Big Brother
Starzticket/Vongo
News
ABC/ABCnews
CNN.com Premium Content
SECTION FOUR
Q & A
iMesh Media/Bearshare
BitTorrent
Cinemanow.com
Liketelevision.com
Movielink.com
Nascar.com
Netflix
Vongo
World Wrestling Entertainment
SECTION FIVE
Distribution/Delivery Cost Analysis and Economics: Movies, Television, Long Form Content, Music Files
Basic CDN Pricing Models
Music
The Relatively Small Size of Files, and Cheap Bandwidth Make Online Distribution Attractive
Music Download Costs Analysis: CDN Delivery Pro Forma
Television/Movies
VHS and DVD Quality Content Reveal a Cost Effective Distribution Business Under Standard Gigabytes Transferred Pricing Models
HD Content File Sizes Create a Negatively Amortizing Distribution Business Under Standard Gigabytes Transferred Pricing Models
Movie/Television Show Download Costs Analysis: CDN Delivery Pro Forma
SECTION SIX
Streaming/Progressive Download Video: Market Category Growth Analysis and Correlation to Subscription and Download Revenue
Music and News Continue to Lead Category Ratings Share, but Internet TV and General Entertainment Made Solid Gains in 2006
Content Category Monthly Video Stream Average: 2006
Streaming Video Category Share: 2006
Streaming Video Category Share Shifts: 2003 - 2006
Category Share Trend Line Analysis: 2003 - 2006
Streaming Video Category Share Shifts: 2003 - 2006
Music Video and Film Categories Reveal Share Declines in 2006
Streaming Video Category Share Shifts: 2003 - 2006
Broadband Video Streams to Grow by 28.7% in 2007, Narrowband to Fall by 14.5%
Summary Forecast Analysis: 2000 - 2010
Video Streams Served by Content Category
Video Streams Served by Content Category
STREAMING SUBSCRIPTION AND DOWNLOAD MEDIA FORECAST AT $2.6 BIL. IN '07
Subscription streaming and download media (audio and video) is forecast to rise 39% in 2007, reaching $2.6 billion in revenue according to this latest research report.
The report, Streaming Subscription and Download Media 2003 - 2008 provides historical and present day subscribers for Internet audio and video services. Streaming music, sports, news and entertainment, plus download, music movies and television content yield total market value.
Music is forecast to capture 85% of total revenue. Sports is estimated at 5.4%, movies 2.2%, news 1.2%, entertainment (including TV show downloads) 3.4% and Real Networks' SuperPass video service 4.1%.
Music download and subscription revenue is forecast to grow at approximately 48.5% in 2007 to $2.2 billion, a considerable leap from 2003, when $90.2 million was generated from online sales.
The music category is dominated by music purchases, with 82% of total revenue generated from downloads compared to subscriptions.
Download movies, forecast at $60 million in 2007, is up 133.4% over 2006, and on track to break the $100 million threshold in 2008.
Movie revenue growth has been hampered by limited availability of both front line titles and catalog depth.
In addition, the report's CDN analysis shows larger movie files (particularly HD) push up distribution costs considerably. By contrast, music downloads are much smaller and online libraries far larger creating better bottom line economics.
With CNN Pipeline now ad supported, the news segment is forecast to register a drop in 2007 subscription revenue.
NASCAR and PGATour moved video out from their subscription services in '07, and the NFL dropped its domestic subscription video in 2006, leaving MLB the dominant league online. With more sports content chasing ad dollars, the subscription area is forecast to grow at 2.2% in 2007 compared to 2006.
"Music has soared to early market dominance, similar to music share in the early days of Internet video. But, demand for premium content from studios and broadcast networks will boost revenue and share as offerings expand over a 3 - 7 year period," commented Paul A. Palumbo, research director at AccuStream.
- ABC
- Adcritic.com
- Aol
- BitTorrent
- Cinemanow.com
- CNN.com
- Emusic.Com
- iMesh Media/Bearshare
- Itunes
- Liketelevision.com
- Movieflix.com
- Movielink.com
- Napster
- Nascar.com
- Nascar.com
- NBA.com
- Netflix
- NFL.com
- Real Networks
- Vongo
- WWE.com
- Yahoo Music
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