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Adult ADHD - Strattera Grows Up


Description: With the recent medical classification of adult ADHD and potentially twice the number of patients compared to pediatric ADHD, manufacturers are seeking new indications in this expanding and lucrative market. Lilly’s Strattera was the first drug to exploit this, and is forecast to reach blockbuster status by 2006. Consequently, manufacturers will need to differentiate their products from Strattera. Scope of Report -Overview of the epidemiology of adult ADHD, with an assessment of the untapped patient potential -Discussion of the problems facing physicians in the diagnosis of adult ADHD -Analysis of the current market leaders and primary contenders for market entry, with adult ADHD-specific market forecasts -Exploration of product positioning and life-cycle management strategies currently used by Strattera, Adderall XR and Concerta Report Highlights Strattera was the first drug approved for the treatment of adult ADHD in November 2002. Since launch Strattera has a steady sales increase from $55m in Q1 2003 to $133m in Q4 2003, and Datamonitor has forecast Strattera to reach blockbuster status by 2006. Shire’s Adderall XR recently received an approvable letter from the FDA for adult ADHD and J&J’s Concerta is currently in Phase III with an expected launch in 2005. Datamonitor forecasts that both drugs will see an increase in sales from gaining an indication for this market, although both will also experience a decline in revenues post 2005. Approximately 75% of adults with ADHD present with a comorbid condition, of which anxiety and depressive disorders predominate. Datamonitor has highlighted two drug classes, which may benefit from further investigation of the treatment of such comorbidities in order to increase their market share in the adult ADHD market. Reasons to Purchase 1. Analyze the commercial viability of the adult ADHD market, based on estimated patient numbers 2. Develop market entry and consolidation strategies through an understanding of key unmet needs in the market 3. Identify and assess novel R&D compounds in the adult ADHD pipeline


Contents: Executive Summary Introduction Scope and coverage of the Brief Key findings about the the topic Strattera was the first drug approved for the treatment of adult ADHD in November 2002. Since launch, Strattera sales have steadily increased from $55m in Q1 2003 to $133m in Q4 2003, and Datamonitor expects Strattera to reach blockbuster status by 2006. Shire's Adderall XR recently received an approvable letter from the FDA for an indication in adult ADHD and J&J's Concerta is currently in Phase III with an expected launch in 2005. Datamonitor forecasts that both drugs will see an increase in sales from gaining an indication for this market although both will also experience a decline in revenues post 2005. It is currently estimated that approximately 75% of adults with ADHD present with a comorbid condition, of which anxiety and depressive disorders predominate. Datamonitor has highlighted two drug classes that may benefit from further investigation of the treatment of such comorbidities in order to increase their market share in the adult ADHD market. Disease Overview Disease definition Etiology of ADHD Structural abnormalities Genetic predisposition Neurotransmitter dysfunction Dopaminergic genes DSM-IV diagnostic criteria of ADHD Progression of symptoms from pediatric to adult ADHD Epidemiology Prevalence of adult ADHD Segmentation of adult ADHD Gender Comorbidities Anxiety and mood comorbidities Substance abuse DIAGNOSIS Diagnostic guidelines History of symptoms Diagnostic rate Treatment Treatment guidelines Pharmacological treatment Stimulants Stimulants for adult ADHD Adderall XR The clinical data supporting Adderall for the treatment of adult ADHD Adderall XR forecast Opportunities for Shire and Adderall XR Concerta Concerta forecast Opportunities for J&J and Concerta Non-stimulants Strattera The clinical data supporting Strattera for the treatment of adult ADHD Strattera forecast Opportunuities for Lilly and Strattera Antidepressants Off-label prescribing Pipeline Analysis Unmet needs Pipeline drugs Methypatch SPD-503 Backlash to adult ADHD? Appendix Bibliography Websites Research methodology Disclaimer List of Tables Table 1: Symptoms of ADHD in children and adults. Table 2: Comorbid disorders with ADHD Table 3: ADHD diagnostic tools Table 4: Stimulants for ADHD Table 5: Adderall sales forecast to 2008 Table 6: Concerta sales forecast to 20034 Table 7: Non-stimulants for ADHD Table 8: Strattera sales forecast to 2008 Table 9: Forecast sales for ADHD drugs approved for both child and adult markets, 2002-08 Table 10: Late stage pipeline ADHD drugs, 2004 List of Figures Figure 1: Prevalence of adults with ADHD in the general population across the seven major markets, 2004 Figure 2: Assessment of adults presenting with symptoms of ADHD Figure 3: Diagnosis rate of ADHD across the seven major markets, 2004 Figure 4: ADHD pharmacological treatment algorithm Figure 5: ADHD patients receiving pharmacological treatment, 2004 Figure 6: Adderall study for adult ADHD Figure 7: Adderall XR study in adult ADHD Figure 8: Adderall sales forecast to 2008 Figure 9: Release rate of Concerta and resulting serum levels Figure 10: Concerta sales forecast to 2008 Figure 11: Strattera sales forecast to 2008 Figure 12: Sales of ADHD drugs ($m), Q3 2000(Q2 2003 Figure 13: Methypatch sales forecast to 2008 Figure 14: Lilly's Adult Self-Report Scale




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