Latvia Food & Drink Report 2008
Business Monitor International, February 2008, Pages: 77
The Latvia Food & Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Latvia's food and drink industry.
Latvia has in recent years experienced a strong growth of its Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) sector, which has had a beneficial effect on the volumes and values of food and beverages sold in the country. The continuation of retail expansion will remain one of the key drivers of growth in the food and drinks
industry over the coming five years. The forecast growth will also be supported by an increased Westernisation of lifestyles, including the receptiveness for new products and the rising demand for convenience foods.
On a negative note, the 2006 introduction of sugar quotas in the European Union (EU) has severely damaged the local industry, with Jelgavas Cukurfabrika, Latvia’s largest sugar mill, deciding to close its business. Similarly, the gradual consolidation and saturation of the retail industry will hamper the development of volume sales in the food sector. In addition, the small size of the market is an area of increasing concern for food and beverage producers, who fear too much concentration of buying power among existing retailers, even as they are suspicious of the pricing power of big international chains. Nevertheless, some companies are viewing the country’s food industry potential with interest. Most recently, Estonia-based Alta Capital Partners indirectly acquired a controlling stake in Rigas Piensaimnieks, the country’s leading dairy producer. The transaction marks further expansion by Alta through acquisition in the Baltics, with Latvian grocery market being viewed as the least consolidated of the three regional markets.
Overall, in BMI’s revised Business Environment Ratings, Latvia is ranked sixth, below both Estonia and Lithuania, with all three generally viewed as investor friendly. Strong GDP and consumer spending growth are fuelling fears of economic overheating, tightening labour markets, soaring real-estate costs and inflation. Inevitably, Latvia may see investment in its food and beverage sector falter in coming years, due to the country’s own success, with export production shifting to cheaper – if wilder – markets and retailers concentrating elsewhere.
Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: CEE Food & Drink Ratings – Q108
Latvia’s Food and Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Latvia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Latvia Food & Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Latvia – Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Hypermarket Retailing in the CEE Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Latvian Mass Grocery Retail Sales (US$bn) by F
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Latvia’s Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of Latvia’s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value by Format (US$bn)
Food and Drink
Food Regional Overview: Frozen Meals In CEE
Table: Western Europe – Consumption Of Ready Meals By Product (‘000 tonnes)
Table: Western Europe – Forecast Expenditure On Ready Meals By Product (EURmn)
Table: Marriages And Divorces In Selected CEE Countries, Per ‘000 Population, 2004
Table: Composition Of Households In Selected CEE Countries By Number Of Children* (as % of total
Food Regional Overview: Confectionery in Central and Eastern Europe
Table: Discount Store Sales (US$bn) by Country 2005-20
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Sectoral trade indicators
Table: Food consumption indicators
Table: Food Sub-sector Indicators
Drink
Table: Alcoholic Drinks indicators
Table: Soft Drinks indicators
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Agriculture
Market Overview
Food
Table: Structure of Manufacturing in Latvia
Drink
Agriculture
Table: Latvia Meat Production
Table: Number of Livestock and Poultry on Latvian Farms
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Tobacco indicators
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape.
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Latvia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2007
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in Latvia’s Food & Drink Sector, 2007
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Hamé in Central and Eastern Europe
Table: Hamé’s Export Markets
Table Urban Population in the Czech Republic as % of To
Table Volume/Value of Canned Food in Czech Republic – Historical Data and Forecast
Table Volume/Value of Canned Food in Romania – Historical Data and Forecast
Food: Podravka in Central and Eastern Europe
Table: Podravka Sales By Product Group, 2006 vs 2005
Table: Podravka Key Financial Indicators, 2005 And 2006 (HRKmn
Mass Grocery Retail: Rewe In Central And Eastern Europ
Title: Rewe’s Position In Markets Where It Has A Retail Presence
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Maxima LT (formerly Vilniaus Prekyba)
Rimi Baltic
Food
Paulig Baltic AS
Drink
Livu Alus
Latvijas Balzams
Agriculture
Rigas Piena Kombinats (RPK)
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits of Potential Returns
Table: Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources
Maxima LT (formerly Vilniaus Prekyba)
Rimi Baltic
Paulig Baltic AS
Livu Alus
Latvijas Balzams
Rigas Piena Kombinats (RPK)
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