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Egypt Food and Drink Report Q2 2008


Description: BMI's Egypt Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's food and drink industry.

As the local mass grocery retail mass grocery retail (MGR) market continues to expand, Egyptian retailers are increasingly looking for ways to get a slice of these profits and parlay their local knowledge into success, as discussed in BMI’s recently published Egypt Food & Drink Report for Q208. As discussed in the report, local hypermarket operator Hyper One has announced its ambitious expansion plans for the coming years, as it looks to expand its presence in the lucrative Egyptian MGR sector. Having established the successful El Hawary supermarket chain, the company opened its first hypermarket under the Hyper One banner in 2005 in Cairo. Now the company has announced its plans to open five new Hyper One branches over the next two years, within Cairo, Tanta and Upper Egypt - one in Minya and the other in Beni Sueif.

Egypt’s MGR sector is forecast to experience dramatic growth over the next five years. We expect sales to grow by 72.8% to reach US$6.45bn in 2012, with the hypermarket format continuing to contribute most significantly to this enormous growth forecast. While the hypermarket growth forecast of 148% to 2012 will largely be a result of multinational investment and the selling power of just one store, the discount sector will benefit from Egypt’s current economic situation. Growth of 64.2% is forecast for the discount format to 2012, with consumers who are unable to afford to shop in high-end modern outlets but want a hygienic shopping experience and a wide range of produce opting to use the discount model. The expansion of market leader Metro, owned by Mansour Group, into this sub-sector through its Kheer Zaman banner will provide a further boost to sales through this format.

Of course the main driver behind this impressive growth will be Egypt’s macroeconomic development. We believe Egypt is relatively well-insulated from the current global economic turmoil, thanks to strong domestic demand and ongoing robust investment flows from the Gulf. In spite of the worsening global climate, Egypt remains one of the most robust growth stories in the region, and in fact we have revised up our 2008 real GDP growth forecast from 5.9% to 6.7%, on the back of last year's stellar performance. This strong growth will result in greater spending on food and drink, making this an attractive market for investors, with Egypt coming in at joint second place in BMI's Food and Drink Ratings, which assess a market's attractiveness to industry investors in comparison to its regional peers. The unique ratings take into account market size, current food and drink consumption levels, future industry growth prospects, the legislative environment and possible barriers to entry, as well as relevant aspects of the economic and political environment. Given all of the above considerations, we can see that Egypt will remain an attractive market for both MGR and food and drink investors willing to wait for long-term returns.


Contents: Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East Food & Drink Ratings – Q208
Egypt’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Egypt’s Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Egypt Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Egypt Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Retail Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (US$bn
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Egypt's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of Egypt's Mass Grocery Retail Market (US$bn) - Sales Value by Format
Table: Value of sales per outlet 2007
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Coffee and Doughnut Shops in the Middle East
Table: GDP Per Capita, US$
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Egypt Food Consumption Indicators
Table: Egypt Food Sub-sector Indicators
Drink
Table: Egypt Alcoholic Drink Industry Data
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: Agricultural Production Of Major Crops, 2005
Table: Egyptian Organic Agricultural Data
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Egypt Cigarette Sales Data
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Egypt's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2006
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players In Egypt's Food And Drink Sector, 2006
Regional Company Case Studies
Drink: Aujan in the Middle East
Table: Aujan Industries – The Figures, 2006
Table: Aujan Shareholders
Table: Aujan Industries Production Facilities In Saudi A
Mass Grocery Retail: Carrefour in the Middle East
Table: Carrefour’s Middle East Operations – The Figures
Table: Carrefour's Middle East Network By Market
Company Analysis
Food
Cairo Poultry Company (CPC
Faragalla
Drink
Al-Ahram Beverages Co (ABC)
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro (Mansour Group)
Tobacco
Eastern Tobacco Company (ETC)
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits of Potential Returns
Table: Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Companies Mentioned Cairo Poultry Company (CPC Faragalla Aujan Industries Carrefour Al-Ahram Beverages Co (ABC) Metro (Mansour Group)


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