North America’s energy transition is continuing to gather pace, with a combination of technological development and favorable policy incentives driving substantial growth across renewables, hydrogen and CCUS sectors. Technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable fuels are also experiencing increasing adoption albeit at a slower rate.
Despite the current dominance of natural gas within North America’s generation mix, a rapid build-out of solar PV and wind capacity will boost renewable generation so that it will contribute 55% of total generation by 2035. Despite inflationary pressures causing project slowdowns, offshore wind will also remain the fastest growing technology, experiencing a CAGR of 67% between 2023 and 2035.
A combination of higher gasoline prices, growing environmental consciousness and improved battery performance will increase the demand for electric vehicles within the US and Canada. As a result, electric vehicles will exceed 75% of the light vehicle market in Canada and the US by 2035. Meanwhile, Mexico’s EV adoption will take place at a slower rate, with adoption rates of up to 18% by 2035 being forecast.
The US has long been a global leader in renewable fuel production, alone accounting for just over 50% of renewable diesel and SAF production capacity. The advance of renewable fuel technology and the shift to using other waste products will help propel further growth by increasing feedstock availability. SAF blending commitments within commercial aviation will also help to drive increasing demand for SAFs.
North America is also one of the world’s most active regions for CCUS, accounting for 63% of global capacity in 2021. 207 projects of varying size are in the pipeline and will add over 240mtpa of capacity to the region. Almost 80% of this capacity will be based in the United States.
North America has also seen plenty of activity in the low-carbon hydrogen space, including the announcement of the world’s two largest projects in Canada by Green Hydrogen International. The two projects will facilitate the further growth of the region’s hydrogen market by establishing hydrogen export trade relationships and prompting regional electrolyzer production capacity to rapidly scale.
Despite the current dominance of natural gas within North America’s generation mix, a rapid build-out of solar PV and wind capacity will boost renewable generation so that it will contribute 55% of total generation by 2035. Despite inflationary pressures causing project slowdowns, offshore wind will also remain the fastest growing technology, experiencing a CAGR of 67% between 2023 and 2035.
A combination of higher gasoline prices, growing environmental consciousness and improved battery performance will increase the demand for electric vehicles within the US and Canada. As a result, electric vehicles will exceed 75% of the light vehicle market in Canada and the US by 2035. Meanwhile, Mexico’s EV adoption will take place at a slower rate, with adoption rates of up to 18% by 2035 being forecast.
The US has long been a global leader in renewable fuel production, alone accounting for just over 50% of renewable diesel and SAF production capacity. The advance of renewable fuel technology and the shift to using other waste products will help propel further growth by increasing feedstock availability. SAF blending commitments within commercial aviation will also help to drive increasing demand for SAFs.
North America is also one of the world’s most active regions for CCUS, accounting for 63% of global capacity in 2021. 207 projects of varying size are in the pipeline and will add over 240mtpa of capacity to the region. Almost 80% of this capacity will be based in the United States.
North America has also seen plenty of activity in the low-carbon hydrogen space, including the announcement of the world’s two largest projects in Canada by Green Hydrogen International. The two projects will facilitate the further growth of the region’s hydrogen market by establishing hydrogen export trade relationships and prompting regional electrolyzer production capacity to rapidly scale.
Key Highlights
- Coal-fired generation will experience a strong decline of -6.1% between 2023 and 2035. Meanwhile, gas will still hold a presence in the region’s future generation mix, with an expected 27% generation share in 2035. Gas will experience a small decline of -1.3% in terms of absolute generation between 2023 and 2035, reflecting how countries in the region are expected to balance decarbonization and energy security concerns.
- Renewables are expected to hold a 55% generation share by 2035, with solar PV and onshore wind accounting for 24% and 17% respectively.
- Within North America, Canada currently has the highest proportion of renewable generation, largely due to its hydropower base, which accounted for 60% of overall generation in 2021. Hydropower will remain the largest source of renewable power, but solar, wind and biopower additions will boost renewable generation to 68% in 2035.
- CO2 storage, power and blue hydrogen remain the dominant facility sectors for CCUS, with these three industries accounting for 66% of CCUS capacity in 2030.
- Air Products and Chemicals Inc is expected to have 6 operational projects by 2030, with one already active and a further 5 in feasibility and construction phases that will come online from 2024 onwards. The company will be the second biggest contributor to low-carbon hydrogen capacity by the end of the decade, accounting for 770ktpa.
Scope
- Regional Energy Transition in North America
- Policies the supporting energy transition
- Power renewable capacity and generation by 2035 and thermal decommissioning capacity
- Electric vehicles market and growth
- Key renewable refinery projects in North America
- CCS capacity and main CCS developments
- Main hydrogen developments and hydrogen capacity in North America
Reasons to Buy
- Identify the last trends, policies and leaders in energy transition technologies.
- Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of each of the sectors.
- Understand the potential market growth and policy support for renewable power, hydrogen, renewable refineries, CCS, EVs.
- Facilitate the understanding of where the market is growing as the energy transition remains the foremost topic of the international agenda.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Sector Grid and Leaders
- Power Outlook & Generation
- Renewable Energy: Policies & Economics
- Power Capacity Share Outlook
- Share of Power & Renewable Generation
- Share of Renewable Generation by Country
- Thermal Power Decommissioning & Emissions
- Major players: Solar Vs Wind Owners
- Energy Storage Capacity
- Electric Vehicles
- EV Sales and Adoption Forecasts
- Regional Policies
- Renewable fuels
- Active and Upcoming Projects
- Production and Consumption Forecasts
- Regional Policies
- CCS/CCU
- CCS/CCU Capacity Forecasts
- Regional Policies
- Active and Upcoming Projects
- Hydrogen
- Capacity Outlook and Key Players
- Active and Upcoming Projects
- Regional Policies
- Hydrogen End Use Sectors and Case Studies
- Sector Grid and Leaders
- Renewable energy policies and economics
- Top wind power EPCS and equipment manufacturers in North America
- Top solar power EPCS and equipment manufacturers in North America
- Largest Active and Upcoming Renewable Refineries in North America
- Largest Active and Upcoming CCUS Projects in North America
- Largest upcoming hydrogen plants in North America
- Examples of Hydrogen developments in North America across sectors
- North America average LCOE, 2015 - 2025
- North America power capacity share, 2018 - 2035
- Power generation share, 2018 - 2035
- Renewable generation by type, 2018 - 2035
- Renewable share of total generation (incl. large hydropower), 2021 - 2030
- North America upcoming and decommissioning thermal capacity, 2024 - 2035
- North America thermal power carbon emissions, 2018 - 2030
- Top owners of active and upcoming wind capacity in North America
- Top owners of active and upcoming solar capacity in North America
- North America energy storage capacity by technology, 2020 - 2030
- North America transmission investment, 2022 - 2027
- North America energy storage capacity by technology, 2020 - 2030
- North America transmission investment, 2022 - 2027
- Battery electric vehicle sales forecast, 2018 - 2035
- EV share of light vehicle market globally vs North American countries, 2018 - 2035
- North America renewable fuel production capacity, 2018 - 2030
- North America renewable fuel consumption, 2018 - 2040
- North America CCUS capacity, 2018 - 2030
- North America low-carbon hydrogen production by development stage, 2020 - 2030
- Companies’ net capacity share in North America hydrogen projects in 2030
- North America low carbon hydrogen capacity scenarios, 2020 - 2030
- Target end use sectors for low-carbon hydrogen plants
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- M. A. Mortenson Co
- MasTec Inc
- Quanta Services Inc
- Vestas Wind Systems AS
- Renewable Energy Systems Holdings Ltd
- Siemens Energy AG
- Invenergy LLC
- Vepica USA Inc
- Fagen Inc
- Borea Construction ULC
- General Electric Co
- Nordex SE
- Platinum Equity LLC
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
- Enercon GmbH
- Suzlon Energy Ltd
- DeWind Co
- Senvion SA
- Swinerton Renewable Energy Inc
- McCarthy Building Companies Inc
- First Solar Inc
- EMJ Corp
- TotalEnergies SE
- Rosendin Electric Inc
- SOLV Energy LLC
- Bechtel Corp
- JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
- Canadian Solar Inc
- Trina Solar Co Ltd
- Hanwha Corp
- JA Solar Technology Co Ltd
- LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd
- Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd
- Waaree Energies Pvt Ltd
- Gron Fuels LLC
- Nacero Inc
- Phillips 66
- Darling Ingredients Inc
- Valero Energy Corp
- Marathon Petroleum
- Neste Corp
- Next Renewable Fuels Inc
- CVR Energy Inc
- Gevo Inc
- Chevron Corp
- Enhance Energy Inc
- Equinor ASA
- Talos Energy Inc
- Summit Agricultural Group
- Exxon Mobil Corp
- Natural Resourcecs Partners LP
- Pembina Pipeline Corp
- TC Energy Corporation
- Enagas SA
- Prairie State Energy Campus LLC
- Occidental Petroleum Corp
- Green Hydrogen International
- BW Group Ltd
- Clean Hydrogen Works
- Denbury Carbon Solutions LLC
- Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd
- Fort Nelson First Nation
- Hydrogen Naturally Inc
- Air Products and Chemicals Inc
- Bear Head Energy Inc
- Bakken Energy LLC
- Shell plc
- DNV Group AS
- Delicias Solar S.A de C.V
- Alstom SA
- HIF Global
