Malaysia Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, February 2008, Pages: 32
The Malaysia Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysias commercial banking industry.
From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions prevailing in other sectors.
Malaysia’s overall CBBER is 67.5. Malaysia has a fairly high CBBER ompared to other countries in the Asia Pacific region surveyed by BMI. Malaysia’s overall CBBER is low compared to the regional leader Hong Kong, but high in comparison to Sri Lanka’s score of 28.4, the lowest in the region. The banking market structure elements of the limits to potential returns have, unsurprisingly, a higher score than the country structure elements (67.5 versus 62.0). In a similar way, the banking market risks elements of the risks to the realisation of returns have a significantly higher score than the country risk rating (76.7 versus 69.9).
Malaysia earns high scores for each of the four banking market elements of the limits to potential returns. In relation to other countries surveyed by BMI, Malaysia is a country where total assets are large, the likely growth in total assets is large, the expected growth in client loans is very large and there is reasonably good potential for banks to earn fees from distribution of insurance products and other activities. The key areas keeping the score lower than it could be are legal and bureaucratic elements of the country risk.
Despite risks to the key export sector, strong performances in the mining and services sectors, and improving private consumption, boosted by increased government spending, will ensure economic growth remains robust.
Malaysias economy shrugged off sluggish external demand in Q207 as economic growth accelerated for the first time in a year. Economic growth surprised on the upside, increasing 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to beat market forecasts of a 5.5% expansion, bringing annualised economic growth for the first half of 2007 to 5.6% after the central bank revised up Q1 growth to 5.5%. With growth momentum expected to pick up further in the second half of the year, we recognise that there are upside risks to our full-year estimate of 5.5%, but, having said this, we still see a number of reasons to remain cautious towards Malaysia’s growth prospects.
Executive Summary
Table: Levels ( MYRbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 31 2006
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2012 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q108
Table: Projected Levels (MYRbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Key Issues
Changes to the Commercial Banking Forecast
Malaysian Commercial Banking SWOT
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: Malaysia’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
International Context
Lending Trends and External Accounts
Table: Comparison of Lending Trends and External Accounts, End 2006
Table: Comparison of Lending Trends and External Accounts
Total Assets, Client Loans and Client Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans and Client Deposits (US$bn)
Per-Capita Deposits
Table: Comparison of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2006
Macroeconomic Trends and Developments
Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2012 (%)
Table: Projected Levels (MYRbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Comment on Forecasts
Comment on Trends
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset and Loan/GDP Ratios, Late 2006
Banks’ Bond Portfolios
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2006
Competitive Landscape
Market Protagonists
Methodology
Basis of Projections
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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