South Korea Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, February 2008, Pages: 32
The South Korea Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Koreas commercial banking industry.
From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions prevailing in other sectors.
South Korea’s overall CBBER is 72.0. The equivalent figures for the US and the eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4, respectively. South Korea’s CBBER is high by regional standards. In the Asia-Pacific Region, only Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore rank more highly.
Within the CBBER, the most important aspect is the banking market element of the limits of potential returns. This element accounts for 42% of the overall rating. South Korea’s rating for this element - 73.1 - is higher than its overall CBBER and higher than the country element of the limits of potential returns - 70.8. Overall, the South Korean banking sector is relatively large in terms of total assets, and steady growth is expected into the future.
More broadly, the South Korean economy expanded at a rate of 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q307, prompting us to raise our full-year GDP growth for 2007 from 4.7% to 5.0%. South Korean exports have held up well due to strong demand from key markets like China and the EU. Moreover, rising investment and improving consumer sentiment have lifted the prospects for domestic demand going forward. We are expecting this momentum to be maintained in 2008 and have set our GDP projection at 5.1%. Inflation is, however, becoming a concern and we expect a further tightening of monetary policy.
Executive Summary
Table: Levels Of Assets, Loans And Deposits (KRWbn)
Table: Levels Of Assets, Loans And Deposits (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 31 2006
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2012 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q307
Table: Projected Levels (KRWbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$mn)
Key Issues
Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast
South Korea Commercial Banking SWOT
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: South Korea’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
International Context
Lending Trends And External Accounts
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End 2006
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)
Per-Capita Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2006
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
Table: South Korea - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Sc
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2012 (%)
Table: Projected Levels (KRWbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$mn)
Comment On Forecasts
Comment On Trends
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, End-2006
Banks’ Bond Portfolios
Table: Bond Portfolios, End-2006
Competitive Landscape
Market Protagonists
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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