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Poland Food and Drink Report Q2 2008


Description: The Poland Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Polands food and drink industry.

Signs that the Polish mass grocery retail (MGR) sector is continuing to consolidate were evident in the first quarter of 2008, as discussed in BMI’s recently published Poland Food & Drink Report for Q208. Following its 2007 acquisition of the Ahold Polska store network, French retailer Carrefour leapt from the country’s number six MGR operator up to second position. Then in early 2008 the company announced its expansion plans for the year, which include the launch of 20 Carrefour 5 Minute, as well opening 36 stores across three formats, with an investment of EUR100mn (US$146mn). Carrefour also said that it will use these investment funds to complete the rebranding of the Ahold Polska stores, saying that it does not plan on making any more acquisitions this year, but will instead focus on organic growth and integration of its previous acquisitions. This followed the deal between Germany’s Tengelmann and Portuguese retailer Jerónimo Martins in which Tengelmann agreed to sell its Plus discount stores in Portugal and Poland for EUR 320mn (US$460mn). Jerónimo Martins was already the leading discount operator in Poland, operating over 1000 stores under the Biedronka banner, with this acquisition significantly beefing up its store network.

Poland’s retail scene is crowded, with about 20 large chains vying for market share, but is also far from mature. The country’s Spolem co-operative networks have thousands of outlets but face tough competition and are consolidating into a single network in order to better compete. In many places Spolem and independents are still the most accessible grocer for most consumers. However, co-operatives are the only format forecast to decline in value, dropping 42.9% to US$0.7bn between 2007 and 2012. Currently we are forecasting that the total MGR market will see growth of 70.4% over the forecast period, to reach US$64.8bn. The value of the hypermarket segment is forecast to grow by 94.3% to US$37.43bn, representing the largest value share within the MGR market. Supermarkets will experience growth of 66.2% to US$17.9bn while discount stores will grow by 28.8% to US$7.4bn in 2012. Given that a relatively large percentage of the population is still on low incomes, the discount format is popular in Poland, and will remain so for some time.

Currently, most convenience stores in Poland are located in petrol stations and are not part of a wider network, but are small independent operations. However, this is slowly changing, with Carrefour now leading this shift. BMI is forecasting that convenience stores will grow in value terms by 45.4% to US$1.6bn to 2012, driven by increasing incomes and longer working hours. However, if Carrefour enjoys success with this model and decides to expand further, this could have a significant impact on this market segment and we would adjust our forecasts accordingly. As reflected in these expansions, the leading players in the MGR sector are increasingly taking a larger percentage of overall sales, forcing smaller and less successful operators out of business, a trend we expect to continue, if not accelerate, in coming years.



Contents: Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: CEE Food & Drink Ratings - Q208
Poland’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings - Poland’s Global Peer Group
SWOT Analyses
Mass Grocery Retail
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Poland Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts
Industry Developments.
Market Overview
Table: Structure of the Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of the mass grocery retail market by value (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Value of Sales per Outlet by Format, 2007
Food And Drink
Food Regional Overview: Confectionery in Central and Eastern Europe
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Poland Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Poland Food Category Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Poland Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Table: Drinks indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Drinks indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments
Drink
Food

Market Overview
Food
Drink
Agriculture
Table: Poland Organic Agricultural Data
Tobacco

Industry Forecast
Table: Tobacco Indicators
Industry Developments
Market Overview

Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players - Poland’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players - Poland’s Food & Drink Sector

Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Hamé in Central and Eastern Europe
Table: Hamé’s Export Markets
Table Urban Population in the Czech Republic as Percentage of Total
Table Volume/Value of Canned Food in Czech Republic - Historical Data and Forecast
Table: Volume/Value of Canned Food in Romania - Historical Data and Forecast
Food: Podravka in Central and Eastern Europe
Table: Podravka Sales By Product Group, 2006 vs 2005
Table: Podravka Key Financial Indicators, 2005 And 2006 (HRKmn)

Company Analysis

Mass Grocery Retail
- Metro Polska
- Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins)

Food
- Nestlé Polska

Drink
- Central European Distribution Corporation
- Carlsberg Polska

Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits of Potential Returns
Table: Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting

Our Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources



Companies Mentioned - Metro Polska - Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins) - Nestlé Polska - Central European Distribution Corporation - Carlsberg Polska


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