United Arab Emirates Commercial Banking Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, April 2008, Pages: 35
The United Arab Emirates Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates commercial banking industry.
Executive Summary
In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced from central banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: in almost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive on particular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had been previously.
Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vast majority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being, emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in the wake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectors of the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). The median rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (in Morocco). In some countries - and not just those enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. In Ukraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more than one-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iran and Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries.
In absolute terms, the UAE’s banking sector enjoyed excellent growth through the year to September 30 2007. In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 40%, 28% and 38% respectively. The loan/deposit and loan/asset ratios fell, while the loan/GDP ratio rose.
These achievements remain impressive, even when considered relative to the other countries surveyed by BMI. Of the 59 countries surveyed, the UAE ranks seventh in terms of local currency asset growth, 23rd in terms of local currency loan growth and eighth in terms of local currency deposit growth. The UAE’s rankings in terms of its loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios are 46th, 47th and 26th respectively.
In a country with per capita GDP of US$43,859, deposits per capita are an impressive US$40,564. In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would all rise by 25% annually through the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we are looking for growth rates of 22%, 17% and 21% respectively.
Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits of potential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurance potential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends on an assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments of overall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment.
The UAE’s CBBER is 64.6. In the context of the Middle East and Africa region, this means that it is a rather attractive country. The UAE’s score compares favourably to the regional leader, South Africa’s score of 67.8. The major problems are low bankassurance potential, an underdeveloped financial infrastructure, and a complex legal framework. The ratings score for the market structure - the most important component of the assessment of the limits to potential returns - is healthy by regional standards, at 60.6. By regional standards, the ratings score for the economy - at 56.6 - is reasonable, but not exceptional.
Executive Summary
Table: Levels (AEDbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 31 2007
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208
Table: Projected Levels (AEDbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Key Issues
Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast
Commercial Banking SWOT
United Arab Emirates Commercial Banking SWOT
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: United Arab Emirates Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East & Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
International Context
Lending Trends And External Accounts
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End-2007
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP)
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)
Per-Capita Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
Table: United Arab Emirates Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)
Table: Projected Levels (bn Units of Local Currency)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Comment On Developments In 2007
Comment On Forecasts
Comment On Trends And Ratios
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios Middle East & North Africa, Late 2007
Banks’ Bond Portfolios
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007
Competitive Landscape And Protagonists
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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