Afren Plc, Oil and Gas Valuation Report

Global Markets Direct, May 2008, Pages: 75

This profile is the essential source for top-level company information and detailed data. The report provides exhaustive information on the areas of operations of Afren Plc as well as the market overview of the regions in which Afren Plc operates. The reports also provides detailed financial outlook of Afren Plc for the next five years along with the key financial and operational ratios. It also provides detailed asset by asset valuation of Afren Plc along with sensitivity analysis. Detailed peer-group analysis of Afren Plc’s share price performance, operations and financial parameters is also presented in the report.

Scope

- Valuation of oil & gas reserves and future production capabilities using discounted cash flow models

- Asset by asset valuation (sum-of-parts) of Afren Plc along with the sensitivity analysis.

- Peer-group analysis based on share performance, operational and financial parameters.

- Detailed information regarding production and reserves of Afren Plc.

- Detailed financial forecast for Afren Plc for the next five years as well the key ratios

- Detailed analysis of the share price performance of Afren Plc as well as its comparison with the market and the peer group.

Reasons to buy

- Identify key companies that will provide long term investment returns

- Optimize your investment strategy

- Research emerging oil & gas exploration & production markets, find niche opportunities and enhance investment returns

- Highlight the key drivers for success of the company in near future

- Gain strong understanding of the key issues affecting a company

- Get a detailed information of a company’s portfolio

- Assess company major oil and gas assets and its performance.

- Useful information for strategy and planning, M&A identifications, and competitor analysis.

1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of figures 7
2 Investment Summary 9
2.1 A Leading Independent West Africa Focused Oil and Gas Company 10
2.2 Onshore and offshore West Africa is highly prospective for oil discoveries 11
2.3 Strong Portfolio with Visible Production and Reserve Growth Profile 12
2.4 Afren Has a Starry Pedigree 13
2.5 Graduation from Exploration to Exploration plus Production 14
2.6 Rapid Portfolio Expansion 14
3 Company Overview 16
3.1 Shareholding Structure 17
3.2 Strategy and Vision 17
3.3 Production and Reserves 18
3.4 Exploration and Appraisal 19
3.5 Share Performance 20
3.6 Key Management 21
4 Operations Summary 24
4.1 Nigeria 25
4.1.1 Overview 25
4.1.2 Production and Reserves 29
4.1.3 Exploration and Development 31
4.1.4 Outlook 35
4.2 Nigeria-Sao Tome & Principle Joint Development Zone (JDZ) 36
4.2.1 Overview 36
4.2.2 Production and Reserves 36
4.2.3 Exploration and Development 37
4.2.4 Outlook 37
4.3 Congo 38
4.3.1 Overview 38
4.3.2 Production and Reserves 38
4.3.3 Exploration and Development 39
4.3.4 Outlook 39
4.4 Gabon 40
4.4.1 Overview 40
4.4.2 Production and Reserves 41
4.4.3 Exploration and Development 41
4.4.4 Outlook 41
4.5 Angola 42
4.5.1 Overview 42
4.5.2 Production and Reserves 43
4.5.3 Exploration and Development 43
4.5.4 Outlook 44
4.6 Ghana 44
4.6.1 Production and Reserves 44
4.6.2 Exploration and Development 44
4.6.3 Outlook 45
5 Financial Outlook 46
5.1 Income Statement (2004-2011) 46
5.2 Balance Sheet (2004-2011) 47
5.3 Cash Flow Statement (2004-2011) 48
5.4 Key Ratios (2004-2011) 49
6 Valuation 50
6.1 Sum-of-Parts Valuation 50
6.2 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation 53
6.3 Comparative Valuation 55
6.4 Sensitivity Analysis 57
7 Peer Group Analysis 58
7.1 Share Price Performance 58
7.2 Operational and Financial Performance 59
8 Key Risks 60
8.1 Crude oil and natural gas prices 60
8.2 Political Instability 60
8.3 Competition 60
8.4 Reserves and Drilling operations 60
9 Market Scenario 61
9.1 Nigeria 61
9.1.1 Reserves and Production 61
9.1.2 Import and Exports 61
9.1.3 Infrastructure 62
9.1.4 Regulations 62
9.1.5 Key Fiscal Regime 62
9.1.6 Private Versus State Participation 62
9.2 Angoal 63
9.2.1 Reserves and Production 63
9.2.2 Import and Exports 63
9.2.3 Infrastructure 64
9.2.4 Regulations 64
9.2.5 Key Fiscal Regime 64
9.2.6 Private Versus State Participation 64
9.3 Gabon 65
9.3.1 Reserves and Production 65
9.3.2 Imports and Exports 65
9.3.3 Infrastructure 65
9.3.4 Regulations 66
9.3.5 Key Fiscal Regime 66
9.3.6 Private versus State Participation 66
9.4 Congo 67
9.4.1 Reserves and Production 67
9.4.2 Import and Exports 67
9.4.3 Infrastructure 67
9.4.4 Regulations 68
9.4.5 Key Fiscal Regime 68
9.4.6 Private versus State Participation 68
10 Appendix 69
10.1 Methodology 69
10.1.1 Coverage 69
10.1.2 Secondary Research 70
10.1.3 Primary Research 70
10.1.4 Forecasts 71
10.2 Key Economic Assumptions 73
10.3 Expert Panel Validation 74
10.4 Definitions 74
10.5 Unit Of Measure 75
10.6 Disclosure information 75

List of Tables

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Afren Plc, Board and Senior Management Background and Experience Highlight, 2008 13
Table 2: Afren, Details of Areas Operations, 2008 15
Table 3: Afren Plc, Board and Senior Management Background and Experience Highlight, 2008 23
Table 4: Afren Plc, Nigeria Assets Production and Reserves Summary, 2008 30
Table 5: Afren, Okoro-Setu Field, Exploration/Appraisal Drilling Data History, 2008 31
Table 6: Afren Plc, Nigeria Okoro-Setu Project Details, 2008 32
Table 7: Afren, Ofa Field Exploration/Appraisal Drilling Data History, 2008 32
Table 8: Afren Plc, Nigeria Ofa Project Details, 2008 33
Table 9: Afren, Eremor Field Exploration/Appraisal Drilling Data History, 2008 33
Table 10: Afren Plc, Nigeria Eremor Project Details, 2008 34
Table 11: Afren, Ogedeh Field Exploration/Appraisal Drilling Data History, 2008 34
Table 12: Afren Plc, Nigeria Ogedeh Project Details, 2008 35
Table 13: Afren Plc, Nigeria-Sao Tome & Principle JDZ Block-1 Operations Overview, 2008 37
Table 14: Afren Plc, Congo Operations Overview, 2008 39
Table 15: Afren Plc, Gabon Operations Overview, 2008 41
Table 16: Afren Plc, Angola Onshore Cabinda License Block B Operations Overview, 2008 43
Table 17: Afren Plc, Angola-Block 16 Operations Overview, 2008 43
Table 18: Afren Plc, Ghana Keta Block Operations Overview, 2008 45
Table 19: Afren Plc, Income Statement ($ Million), 2004-2011 46
Table 20: Afren Plc, Balance Sheet ($ Million), 2004-2011 47
Table 21: Afren Plc, Cash Flow Statement ($ Million), 2004-2011 48
Table 22: Afren Plc, Key Ratios, 2004-2011 49
Table 23: Afren Plc, Summary of Target Price ($/share), 2008 50
Table 24: Afren Plc, Sum-of Parts DCF, 2008 51
Table 25: Afren Plc, Discounted Cash Flow, Key Assumptions, 2008 54
Table 26: Afren Plc, Discounted Cash Flow, 2008 54
Table 27: Afren Plc, Comparative Valuations, 2006 55
Table 28: Afren Plc, Valuation Sensitivity to Crude Oil Price (Per barrel) and Discount Rate (%), 2008 57
Table 29: Afren Plc Vs. Peer-Group Operational and Financial Performance, 2006 59

List of Figures

1.2 List of figures

Figure 1: Afren Plc, Asset Map, 2008 10
Figure 2: West African Countries, Peer Comparison On The Basis Of Exploration Activity, Production And Reserves, 2006 11
Figure 3: Afren Plc, Reserve Position, 2008 12
Figure 4: Afren Plc, Revenue and Operating Cashflow, 2005-2010 14
Figure 5: Afren Plc, Time-Line, 1997-2007 16
Figure 6: Afren Plc, Shareholding Structure, 2008 17
Figure 7: Afren Plc, Production Profile (Gross Production, MMbbls), 2008-2015 18
Figure 8: Afren Plc, Working interest Reserves Potential (MMbbls), 2008 19
Figure 9: Afren Plc, Work Programme, 2008 20
Figure 10: Afren Plc, Share Performance, March 2005-February 2008 21
Figure 11: Afren Plc, Area of Operations, 2008 24
Figure 12: Afren Plc, Nigeria Portfolio, 2008 25
Figure 13: Afren Plc, Nigeria Okoro-Setu Field Map, 2008 26
Figure 14: Afren Plc, Nigeria Ofa Field Map, 2008 27
Figure 15: Afren Plc, Nigeria Eremor Field Map, 2008 28
Figure 16: Afren Plc, Nigeria Ogedeh Field Map, 2008 29
Figure 17: Afren Plc, Nigeria Production Profile (Mbbls/d), 2008-2015 30
Figure 18: Afren Plc, Nigeria-Sao Tome & Principle JDZ Block 1 Map , 2008 36
Figure 19: Afren Plc, Congo La Noumbi Map, 2008 38
Figure 20: Afren Plc, Gabon Themis Marin, Iris Marin, Iris Marin Map, 2008 40
Figure 21: Afren Plc, Angola, Cabinda Block Map, 2008 42
Figure 22: Afren Plc, Ghana Keta Block Map, 2008 44
Figure 23: Afren Plc, Valuation per share, 2008 52
Figure 24: Afren Plc, EV/Reserve ($/boe), 2008 56
Figure 25: Afren Plc Vs. Peer Group Share Price Performance, January 2006-January 2008 58
Figure 26: Nigeria, Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Production and Consumption, 1996-2007 61
Figure 27: Angola, Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Production and Consumption, 1996-2007 63
Figure 28: Gabon, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production and Consumption, 1996-2007 65
Figure 29: Vietnam, Crude Oil Production and Consumption, Thousand Barrels Of Oil, 1996-2007 67

Customers who bought this item also bought

• Afren To Acquire 20% Interest In Ain Sifni Production Sharing Contract - The Agreement with KRG to Allow Afren's Entry into Iraq - Deal Analysis From GlobalData
• Afren to Acquire 60% Interest in Barda Rash PSC from Komet Group - The Deal Marks Afren's Entry into Kurdistan
• Nigeria Gas Markets, 2012
• Ivory Coast Gas Markets, 2011
• Nigeria Oil Markets, 2012
• Ivory Coast Oil Markets, 2011
• Afren Plc (Afren) Company Profile- Business Overview, Key Strategies, Operations and SWOT Analysis
• Gabon Oil Markets, 2011
• Nigeria Oil Markets, 2011
• Iraq Gas Markets, 2012