Rail Travel Market Report 2008
Key Note Publications Ltd, May 2008, Pages: 146
In the year ending March 2007, the passenger receipts of the UK market for rail travel amounted to £7.37bn, an increase of 11.4% compared with turnover of £6.61bn in the previous year. This was largely due to a 12.1% rise in the turnover of the national rail sector, although urban rail services also reported healthy growth (of 9%) over the same period, while Northern Ireland Railways' turnover increased by 21.5%.
The UK passenger rail sector is defined to include the services provided on the national rail system by the infrastructure provider, Network Rail, and the train operating companies (TOCs) under franchise, concession and open-access arrangements, as well as the services provided by Northern Ireland Railways. It also includes services offered by urban rail systems, including London Underground and other metro and light rail operators, and the international services provided by Eurostar and the Eurotunnel Passenger Shuttle. The activities of preserved railways — which are regarded more as tourist attractions than transport operations — are not covered in this Market Report. The UK rail travel market is also analysed in terms of journey purposes, including journeys to work and trips made for business, shopping, leisure or other reasons.
Since 2003, there has been a significant recovery in demand for rail travel. Economic growth and increasing road congestion have facilitated this development; however, the increase in passenger receipts is largely attributable to fare rises, which were considerably higher than the rate of increase in the retail price index (RPI). The urban rail sector is dominated by the largest UK urban railway operator, the London Underground, which, although it has a far higher annual turnover than any single TOC, has not been growing as rapidly as other operators. Across the sector as a whole, revenues have been growing at a faster rate than travel demand — measured by the number of journeys and passenger kilometres (pkms) travelled.
In terms of legislation and the activities of the regulatory authorities, the public sector has exerted a major influence on the financial performance of the rail travel industry and in the perception of the travelling public. In 2007, significant changes were made to the allocation of franchises to the TOCs, in line with the Government's aim to reduce the number of franchises and to create a closer match between these franchises and Network Rail's route structure. New franchises were created, including East Midlands Trains, London Midland, London Overground, National Express East Coast and CrossCountry, following the earlier steps towards the implementation of this policy that were taken in April 2006, with the creation of the Capital Connect and Greater Western franchises.
Despite some signs of a slowdown in the UK economy growth rate, the macro-economic environment is generally favourable to the continued growth of the UK rail passenger market. Travel on urban railways and international services is predicted to grow more slowly than travel on the national network, with capacity constraints limiting growth on the London Underground, and international services continuing to be affected by competition from short-haul sea ferry operators and low-cost airlines.
Executive Summary
1. Market Definition
REPORT COVERAGE
Report Structure
Definitions (Standard Industrial Classification)
MARKET SECTORS
National Rail Infrastructure
Mainline Rail Services
Urban Rail Services
International Rail Services
Northern Ireland
MARKET TRENDS
Travel Trends
Table 1: Number of Passenger Journeys on Public Transport Vehicles in Great Britain by Mode of Transport (million), Years Ending March 2003-2007
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Population
Table 2: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2003-2007
Gross Domestic Product
Table 3: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (£m), 2003-2007
Inflation
Table 4: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2003-2007
Unemployment
Table 5: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2003-2007
Household Disposable Income
Table 6: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (£), 2003-2007
MARKET POSITION
The UK
Table 7: Share Taken by Rail in the UK Domestic Passenger Transport Sector (billion passenger kilometres and %), 2003-2007
Overseas
Table 8: Share Taken by Rail Passenger Traffic in Europe by Country (million passenger kilometres and %), 2006
2. Market Size
The Total Market
Table 9: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on UK Rail Systems† (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007
Figure 1: Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems (£m), Years Ending March 2003-2007
BY MARKET SECTOR
Journey Purpose
Journey to Work
Business Travel
Leisure and Other Personal Travel
Geographical Markets
Table 10: Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems by Sector (£m), Years Ending March 2003-2007
National Rail Network Services
Table 11: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on National Rail Services in Great Britain (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007
Urban Rail Services
Table 12: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on Urban Rail Services in Great Britain (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007
International Rail Services
Table 13: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on International Rail Services† (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007
Northern Ireland Railways
Table 14: Passenger Receipts, Passenger Journeys and Passenger Kilometres on Northern Ireland Railways (£m and million), Years Ending March 2003-2007
3. Industry Background
RECENT HISTORY
The Regulatory Framework
Train Operating Companies
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
The National Rail System
Office of Rail Regulation
The Department for Transport
Network Rail
Train Operations
Table 15: Number of Franchised Train Operators in Great Britain by Holding Company, March 2008
Urban Rail Systems
Transport for London
Other Urban Rail systems
Northern Ireland Railways
International Rail Services
Eurotunnel (Passenger Shuttle)
Eurostar
NUMBER OF COMPANIES
Table 16: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Transport via Railways Sector† by Turnover Sizeband (number and %), 2007
Table 17: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Transport via Railways Sector† by Turnover Sizeband, 2003-2007
EMPLOYMENT
Table 18: Number of Employee Jobs in the Transport via Railways Sector† in Great Britain (000), June 2007
Table 19: Number of Employee Jobs in the Transport via Railways Sector† in Great Britain (000), June 2003-2007
REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE
Table 20: Rail Travel in Great Britain by City/Region (million passenger kilometres and %), Year Ending March 2007
DISTRIBUTION
HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?
LEGISLATION
The Transport Act 2000
Railways Act 2005
White Paper — Delivering a Sustainable Railway
Crossrail Hybrid Bill
key TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
UK Associations
Association of Train Operating Companies
Confederation of Passenger Transport
Light Rail Transit Association
The Railway Forum
International Bodies
L'Association Européenne pour le Développement du Transport Ferroviaire
Union Internationale des Chemins de Fer
Other Rail Related Associations
4. Competitor Analysis
THE MARKETPLACE
MARKET LEADERS
Table 21: Top Ten UK Train Operating Companies by Turnover (£m), Latest Financial Year End
London Underground Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
First Greater Western Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
London & South Eastern Railway Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
West Coast Trains Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Northern Rail Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
South West Trains Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
National Express East Coast
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
New Southern Railway Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
London Eastern Railway Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
First ScotRail Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Other Railway Operators
Northern Ireland Railways Company Ltd
Eurostar (UK) Ltd
The Chiltern Railway Company Ltd
OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS
Introduction
Network Rail
Infrastructure Maintenance Contractors
Rolling Stock Leasing Companies
Train Service Information Providers
Equipment Manufacturers
MARKETING ACTIVITY
Main Media Advertising Expenditure
Table 22: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Rail Passenger Transport by Sector and Main Company (£000 and %), Years Ending December 2006 and 2007
Other Marketing Activity
East Midlands Trains
Eurostar
First ScotRail
London Midland
Manchester Metrolink
Merseyrail
National Express East Coast
Network Rail
South West Trains
Transport for London
Tyne & Wear Metro
Exhibitions/Trade Shows
5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
6. Buying Behaviour
TRAVEL PATTERNS OF RAIL PASSENGERS
National Travel Survey
Table 23: Number of Trips and Distance Travelled per Person per Year by Surface Rail and London Underground by Purpose of Trip (number, 000 miles and %), 2006
Figure 2: Number of Trips per Person per Year by Surface Rail and London Underground by Purpose of Trip (%), 2006
Trends in Travel by Surface Rail
Table 24: Travel Patterns of Travellers by Surface Rail in Great Britain by Average Distance Travelled, Trip Length, Trip Duration and Number of Trips per Person per Year (miles, hours, minutes and number), 2002-2006
Trends in Travel by London Underground
Table 25: Travel Patterns of Travellers by London Underground by Average Distance Travelled, Trip Length, Trip Duration and Number of Trips per Person per Year (miles, hours, minutes and number), 2002-2006
Key Note Primary Research
Overall Results
Table 26: Rail Travel in Great Britain by Reason for Travel and Frequency of Use (% of respondents), 2008
Journeys to Work, School or College
Table 27: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Journey to Work, School or College (% of respondents), 2008
Business Trips
Table 28: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Business Trip (% of respondents), 2008
Shopping Trips
Table 29: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Shopping Trip (% of respondents), 2008
Leisure Trips
Table 30: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Leisure Trip (% of respondents), 2008
Trips Made for Other Personal Reasons
Table 31: Frequency of Rail Travel in Great Britain for a Trip Made for Other Personal Reasons (% of respondents), 2008
7. Current Issues
REGULATORY ISSUES
Political Background
The Railways Act 2005
Franchising Trends
Rail Performance Trends
Fares Trends
Complaints
RAILWAY INVESTMENT
The Eddington Report
Public Private Partnerships
Investment in Rolling Stock
Capacity Enhancement
Investment in the Regions
IMPACT OF OTHER LEGISLATION
SECURITY and INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES
Train Warning and Protection Systems
Railway Security
The Role of the Internet
Other Technological Developments
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
CORPORATE ACTIVITY
Eurotunnel
Chiltern Rail
8. The Global Market
EUROPEAN COMPARISONS
Rail Shares of Passenger Transport
Table 32: Share of Passenger Transport in the EU by Mode of Transport (billion passenger kilometres), 2000-2004
Rail Employment
Table 33: Employment† in Rail Transport in the EU by Country (number), 2004
National Rail Networks
Infrastructure
Table 34: Rail Infrastructure in Selected EU Countries (kilometres, %, million and square kilometres and %), 2003
Table 35: Rail Systems in Europe by Length of Lines (kilometres and %), 2006
Rail Intensity
Table 36: Rail Intensity in the UK Compared with Other Major EU Countries (million and million passenger kilometres), 2006
Trans European Rail Networks
Light Rail Systems
Legislation
CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
Deutsche Bahn
9. Forecasts
ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Table 37: Forecast UK Economic Indicators, 2008-2012
FORECASTS 2008 to 2012
Table 38: Forecast Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems at Current and Constant 2003 Prices (£m), Years Ending March 2008-2012
Market Growth
Figure 3: Forecast Passenger Receipts on UK Rail Systems† at Current Prices (£m), Years Ending March 2003-2012
FUTURE TRENDS
Demographics
Table 39: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000 and %), Mid-Years 2008-2012
Political Uncertainties
International Terrorism
Regulatory Policy Framework
White Paper — Delivering a Sustainable Railway
Network Rail Targets
Technological Changes
Rail Competition
New Services
Eurostar
Renaissance Trains
Transport for London
Modernisation and Investment Projects
Crossrail
Cross River Tram
Croydon Tramlink
Docklands Light Railway Extensions
Edinburgh Light Rail
Rolling Stock
Thameslink Programme
West Coast Main Line
Other Continuing Issues
10. Company Profiles
Arriva Plc
Eurostar (uk) Ltd
Firstgroup Plc
The Go-ahead Group Plc
London Underground Ltd
National Express Group Plc
Network Rail Ltd
Northern Ireland Railways Company Ltd
Stagecoach Group Plc
Virgin Rail Group Holdings Ltd
11. Further Sources
Associations
Publications
General Sources
Government Publications
Other Sources
Bisnode Sources
Arriva Plc
Eurostar (uk) Ltd
Firstgroup Plc
The Go-ahead Group Plc
London Underground Ltd
National Express Group Plc
Network Rail Ltd
Northern Ireland Railways Company Ltd
Stagecoach Group Plc
Virgin Rail Group Holdings Ltd
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