South Korea Commercial Banking Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, April 2008, Pages: 37
The South Korea Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Korea's commercial banking industry.
Executive Summary:
In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced from central banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: in almost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive on particular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had been
previously.
Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vast majority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being, emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in the wake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectors of the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). The median rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (in Morocco). In some countries – and not just those enjoying oil booms – the figures were spectacular. In Ukraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more than one-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iran and Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries.
In absolute terms, South Korea’s banking sector enjoyed reasonable growth through the year to September 30 2007. In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 13%, 13% and 7% respectively. The loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios all rose. Relative to other countries surveyed by BMI, these achievements are not so impressive. Of the 59 countries surveyed, South Korea ranks 45th in terms of local currency asset growth, 44th in terms of local currency loan growth and 53rd in terms of local currency deposit growth. Despite slow growth, South Korea’s rankings in terms of its loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios are all very high, at ninth, 12th and ninth respectively. In a country with per capita GDP of US$20,049, deposits per capita are US$16,112.
In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would all rise by 5% annually through the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we are looking for higher growth rates of 10%, 10% and 7% respectively. Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits of potential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurance potential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends on an assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments of overall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment.
South Korea’s CBBER is 78.4. In the context of the Asia Pacific region, this means it is a very attractive country, with one of the highest CBBER’s in the region. The major problem is the low growth rates and the risks to potential returns. The score for the market structure – the most important component of the assessment of the limits to potential returns – is very high at 78.1, but the rating for market risks is low compared to other countries in the region, at only 68.3.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (KRWbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At December 31 2007 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208 6
Table: Projected Levels (KRWbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
Key Issues7
Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast 9
Commercial Banking SWOT10
South Korea Commercial Banking SWOT 10
South Korea Political SWOT 10
South Korea Economic SWOT 11
South Korea Business Environment SWOT 12
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating13
Table: South Korea Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 15
International Context 16
Lending Trends And External Accounts 16
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End-2007 16
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP) 17
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits 19
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn) 19
Per-Capita Deposits 20
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007 ( 20
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments 21
Table: South Korea Economic Activity 22
Industry Forecast Sce 23
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%) 23
Table: Projected Levels (KRWbn) 23
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 23
Comment On Developments In 2007 23
Comment On Forecasts 24
Comment On Trends And Ratios 25
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios – Asia Pacific, Late 2007 25
Banks’ Bond Portfolios28
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007 28
Competitive Landscape And Protagonists30
Methodology 32
Basis Of Projections 33
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 33
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 35
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 36
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