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Ukraine Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011


Description: The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry

BMI’s updated forecast for the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market foresees a robust recovery in market values, albeit from the low base of 2009 when the market suffered a 23.7% contraction in US dollar terms, underlining the volatility of this strategic but deeply risky market on the borders of the European Union. Adjusted for updated growth forecasts and currency valuations, a 20.2% compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) is now expected in US dollar terms (13.4% in local currency) through to 2014, with the market expected to reach a total value of UAH37.39bn (US$6.23bn).

Following gains in local elections at the end of October 2010 by the ruling Party of Regions against a demoralised opposition, President Viktor Yanukovych has established a grip on power not seen in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution. His closer relationship with Russia has eased tensions and should reduce (if not eliminate) unpredictable trade disputes and gas rows. He is also adhering to the harsh terms of the country’s IMF standby agreement, something flouted by the previous government.

From an overall business perspective, this provides a modicum of stability, although it is far from clear whether Yanukovych’s regime will be able or willing to tackle high-level corruption beyond the investigation of members of the previous government.

One high profile investigation is an audit of state expenditures approved by the previous government, headed by Yulia Tymoshenko, by a US law firm and other outside investigators. Among the reported findings were alleged ‘instances in which offshore shell companies and sham transactions were employed to sell pharmaceuticals to the government at highly inflated prices’ – a reference to state purchases of medicines, including influenza treatments. Such an investigation will be useful it if leads to steps to deter corrupt tenders for medicines under state programmes in the future.

For most foreign investors however, Ukraine’s absence of clear ‘rules of the game’ and enforcement of intellectual property rights remains a primary obstacle. In October 2010, US officials publicly complained about plans by the city council of Kiev to sell a 30% stake in Borshchagovsky Chemical and Pharmaceutical Plant (BXFZ), consisting of assets which a US investor claims had been expropriated from them. Such claims, are not uncommon in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical industry, although local investors have been primary victims. For this reason, multinational direct investment remains minimal despite the market’s large size, growing economy and ideal position vis-à-vis other large Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets. As such, most deals will involve packaging plants and contract production, keeping the foreign producer at arm’s length. Recent examples include GSK’s deal with local plant PharmaLife, whereby the latter will package bulk vaccines delivered by the multinational. Such deals are important for Ukraine, but the country would benefit far more from direct investment in new, high-technology facilities in the country. Until the government can demonstrate that rule of law will prevail, most will stay away.


Contents: Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Ukraine Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Ukraine Political SWOT
Ukraine Economic SWOT
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating
Table: Emerging Europe – Regional Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings, Q410
Rewards
Risks
Ukraine – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Issues

Pricing and Reimbursement Issues
Other Market Entry Barriers Industry Developments
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2006-2014
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2006-2014
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Imports & Exports Indicators 2006-2014

Competitive Landscape
Manufacturing Sector
Wholesale
Retail

Company Monitor
Arterium
Gedeon Richter
Krka
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)

Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources


Companies Mentioned - Arterium - Gedeon Richter - Krka - Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)


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