Contents:

LIST OF FIGURES viii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF BOXES xiii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xiv Introduction and Summary 1 The Contours of World Development 2 The History of Macro-Measurement 5 The Shape of Things to Come 6 PART I Contours of World Development, 1-2003AD 1 The Roman Empire and its Economy 11 Introduction 11 Key Characteristics Accounting for Roman Success in Empire Building 13 Conquest of the Italian Peninsula, 396-191BC 17 The Empire Building Process 18 The Disintegration of the Empire 30 Roman Demography 32 Roman Income 43 Endnotes 60 Bibliography 62 2 The Resurrection of Western Europe and the Transformation of the Americas 69 Why and When did the West Get Rich? 69 The Driving Forces that Explain the Acceleration in Western Growth since 1820 73 Changes in the Structure of Demand and Employment 74 The European Transformation of the Americas, 1500-1820 87 Endnotes 105 References 108 3 The Interaction Between Asia and the West, 1500-2003 111 European-Asian Interaction from 1500 to 1820 112 The Impact of Asian Trade on Europe, 1500-1820 115 The Impact of Europe on Asia, 1500-1820 116 Endnotes 178 References 179 4 The Impact of Islam and Europe on African Development: 1-2003AD 183 Introduction 183 The European Impact on North Africa Before the Seventh Century 185 The Islamic Conquest and its Implications 188 Egypt as an Islamic State 193 The Maghreb and the Initiation of Trans-Saharan Trade in Gold and Slaves 206 The Changing Character of Moroccan Dynasties and their Interaction with Europe and Black Africa 209 Black Africa and the Impact of Islam 214 The European Encounter with Africa 217 Africa from 1820 to 1960 227 Post-Colonial Africa, 1960 Onwards 231 Appendix: The Crusades 1096-1270 237 Endnotes 239 References 240 PART II Advances in Macro-Measurement Since 1665 5 Political Arithmeticians and Historical Demographers: The Pioneers of Macro-Measurement 249 William Petty (1623-87) 250 John Graunt: The First Demographer (1620-74) 256 Gregory King (1648-1712) and Charles Davenant (1656-1714) 258 Patrick Colquhoun (1745-1820) 282 French Political Arithmetic, 1695-1707 284 Macro-Measurement in the Nineteenth and First Half of the Twentieth Century 287 Bibliography 288 6 Modern Macro-Measurement: How Far Have We Come? 294 Development of Macro-Measurement as a Tool of Economic Policy since 1950 295 Quantifying and Interpreting World Economic Growth from 1820 Onwards 301 Economic Performance in the Merchant Capitalist Epoch: 1500-1820 307 The Roots of Modernity: ’Takeoff’ or Long Apprenticeship 315 Appendices 316 Endnotes 321 Bibliography 323 PART III The Shape of Things to Come 7 The World Economy in 2030 335 Projections of Population and Changes in Demographic Characteristics 335 Assumptions Underlying the Projections of Per Capita GDP 338 The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming 347 The Impact of Climate Change 360 The Kyoto Protocol 362 The Report of the House of Lords on Climate Change 362 The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 363 Conclusions on Global Warming 366 Appendix 367 Endnotes 369 Bibliography 370 Appendices Statistical Appendix A 375 Statistical Appendix B: Ingredients of Growth Accounts in Japan, UK, and USA, 1820-2003 384 INDEX 387 LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Per capita income in the provinces of the Roman Empire in 14?? 55 2.1a Comparative levels of Mexico/US GDP per capita, 1700-2001 102 2.1b Comparative levels of Brazil/US GDP per capita, 1700-2001 102 3.1 Comparative levels of India/UK GDP per capita, 1500-2030 121 3.2 Comparative levels of Indonesia/UK GDP per capita, 1500-2030 132 3.3 Comparative levels of Japan/UK GDP per capita, 1500-2030 157 3.4 Comparative levels of China/UK GDP per capita, 1500-2030 158 3.5 Comparative levels of China/US GDP, 1500-2030 158 LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Acquisition of Provinces outside Peninsular Italy: 214??-199?? 19 1.2 Population of the Roman Empire at the Death of Augustus, 14?? 35 1.3 McEvedy and Jones’ Estimates of Population change, 300??-600?? 37 1.4 Frier’s Estimates of Population, 14-164?? 37 1.5 Ratios of Slave and Non-Slave Survival in the Americas 40 1.6 Russell’s Estimates of the Size of 51 Cities in the Empire 42 1.7 Urbanization Ratios in Europe and Asia, 1500-1890 43 1.8 Goldsmith’s Estimate of GDP (Expenditure and Income) in the Empire as a Whole in 14?? 46 1.9 Maddison’s Modified Version of Goldsmith’s GDP Estimates for the Empire as aWhole in 14?? 47 1.10 Regional Breakdown of Labour and Elite Income, 14?? 50 1.11 Hierarchy of Per Capita Income Levels outside Peninsular Italy, 14?? 53 1.12 Provincial Population, Per Capita and Total Income in 14?? 54 1.13 European Population, Per Capita and National Disposable Income in 14??, Within Present-Day Boundaries 56 1.14 Economic Performance of Three Components of the Empire in 300?? and 14?? 57 1.15 Changes in Performance of Major Countries in the Roman Empire, 14-1000?? 59 1.16 Demographic Characteristics Influencing Labour Force Participation 61 1.17 King’s Estimate of English Cereal Production in 1688 62 2.1 Levels of Per Capita GDP, Population, and GDP:World and Major Regions, 1-2003?? 70 2.2 Growth Rates of Per Capita GDP, Population, and GDP, 1-2003?? 71 2.3 Life Expectation, 1000-2003?? 72 2.4 Structure of British Expenditure, 1688 and 2001 75 2.5 Structure of Employment in the Netherlands, UK, and USA, 1700-2003 76 2.6 Globalization: Growth in Volume ofWorld Trade and GDP, 1500-2003 81 2.7 The Economies of the Americas’ Five Regions, 1500-2003 88 2.8a Ethnic Composition of the Americas in 1820 89 2.8b Ethnic CompositionWithin the Caribbean, 1820 89 2.9a NewWorld Population, 1820-2003 103 2.9b NewWorld Per Capita GDP, 1820-2003 104 2.9c NewWorld GDP Levels, 1820-2003 105 3.1 Number of Ships Sailing to Asia from Seven European Countries, 1500-1800 112 3.2a Gold and Silver Shipments from the Americas to Europe, 1500-1800 113 3.2b Exports of Silver and Gold fromWestern Europe, 1601-1780 113 3.3 Population of Asian Countries, 1500-2003 116 3.4a Per Capita GDP in Asian Countries, 1500-2003 117 3.4b GDP of Asian Countries, 1500-2003 117 3.5 Comparative Macro-economic Performance of India and Britain, 1600-2003 121 3.6 India’s Balance on Merchandise and Bullion, 1835-1967 122 3.7 The British ‘Drain’ on India, 1868-1930 122 3.8 Social Structure of the Moghul Empire around 1600 123 3.9 Social Structure of India at the End of British Rule 124 3.10 Intensity of Land Use in Japan, China, India, Indonesia, and Australia, 1993 125 3.11a Indonesian Population and Real Income Per Capita by Ethnic Group, 1700-1929 134 3.11b Indonesian Real Income and Shares of Each Ethnic Group, 1700-1929 134 3.12 Indonesian Commodity Exports at Constant (1928) Prices, 1830-1937 135 3.13 Indonesian Export Growth and Export Surpluses, 1698-1930 136 3.14 The Net Foreign Capital Position of Asian Countries in 1938 136 3.15 The Dimensions of Foreign Presence in Asia, 1929-41 137 3.16 Chinese Imports of Silver from Japan and the Philippines, 1550-1700 140 3.17 Comparative Economic Performance of Japan and its Former Colonies, 1820-2003 154 3.18 Exchange Rates between Ming Paper Currency and Silver, 1376-1540 162 3.19 Chinese Naval Diplomacy: Voyages to the ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ Oceans, 1405-33 163 3.20 China’s Population by Province, 1819-1953 165 3.21 Ratio of Gross Fixed Investment to GDP at Current Prices 169 3.22 Asian andWestern Merchandise Exports at Constant Prices, 1870-2003 170 3.23 Comparative Dynamics of Income and Export Performance, Asia and the West, 1950-2003 171 3.24 Comparative Performance of China, India, Japan, Russia, and the US, 1990-2003 172 3.25 China in theWorld Economy, 1500-2030?? 174 3.26a Asian Population, 1820-2003 175 3.26b Asian Per Capita GDP, 1820-2003 176 3.26c Asian GDP, 1820-2003 177 4.1 African Population, 1-2003?? 184 4.2 African GDP per Capita, 1-2003?? 185 4.3a West Asian Population, 1-2003?? 192 4.3b West Asian Per Capita GDP, 1-2003?? 192 4.3c West Asian GDP, 1-2003?? 192 4.4 World Gold Output by Region, 1493-1925 214 4.5a Slave Exports from Black Africa, 650-1900, by Destination 223 4.5b Regional Origin of African Slaves Exported to the Americas, 1662-1867 223 4.6 Length of Railway Line in Service, 1870-1913 228 4.7 African Population, GDP, and Per Capita GDP, 1820-2003 229 4.8 Variations of Income Level within Africa, 2003 234 4.9 Total External Debt of African Countries, 1980-2003 235 5.1 Consolidated Income andWealth Accounts for England andWales: Petty (1665) and King (1688) 254 5.2 Gregory King’s Estimates of English Population (1695) and their Derivation 265 5.3 Confrontation of King’s Population Estimates for 1695 with Those of Other Demographers 265 5.4 King’s Estimates of Population in England andWales, by Age and Gender in 1695 266 5.5 Estimated ofWorld Population by Region: Riccioli (1672), King (1695), and Modern Estimates for 1700 266 5.6 World Population: Confrontation of King’s and Modern Chronology, and Futurology, 3935??-2300?? 267 5.7 Colin McEvedy’sWorld Population Estimates: 7500??-1?? 268 5.8 Gross Domestic Expenditure in England andWales in 1688 272 5.9a King’s Hierarchy of England’s Income by Type of Household in 1688 276 5.9b Lindert andWilliamson’s Income Hierarchy by Type of Household in 1688 278 5.10 Income by Economic Sector, in 1688; Lindert andWilliamson Adjusted 279 5.11 Proxy Estimates of the Production Structure in 1688 281 5.12 Population and Income in England andWales, France, and the Netherlands in 1688 281 6.1 Nature of PPP Converters for Estimating GDP Levels in 1990 299 6.2 Comparative Ranking of 10 Large Countries, 1950 and 2001 using PPP converters and exchange rates 299 6.3 Coverage of the Maddison GDP Sample of Regional andWorld GDP 302 6.4 Determinants of Growth: UK, US, and Japan, 1820-2003 305 6.5 Capital/Output Ratios, Labour, and Total Productivity Factor: UK, US, and Japan, 1820-2003 306 6.6 Per Capita GDP Levels: 1500 and 1820 309 6.7 Confrontation of Maddison and van Zanden Per Capita GDP Estimates for Five European Countries, 1500-1820 317 7.1 Population of theWorld and Major Regions, 1950-2030 336 7.2 Assumptions Underlying the Demographic Projections 336 7.3 Per Capita GDP: TheWorld and Major Regions, 1950-2030 337 7.4 Growth of GDP: TheWorld and Major Regions, 1950-2030 337 7.5 Comparative Performance of Advanced Capitalist Countries, 1990-2003 339 7.6 Shares ofWorld GDP, 1820-2030 340 7.7 Per Capita GDP Levels relative to the USA, 1820-2030 340 7.8 Per Capita GDP Performance and GDP Levels in the Successor States of the USSR, Eastern Europe, China, and Vietnam 1973-2003 342 7.9 Ranking of the 20 Biggest Countries in 2003 and 2030 343 7.10 Growth of Per Capita GDP in the 20 Biggest Countries, 1950-2030 345 7.11 World Consumption of Primary Energy, 1820-2030 348 7.12 Structure ofWorld Energy Demand, 1900, 2003, and 2030 348 7.13 Incidence ofWorld Carbon Emissions, 1820-2030 349 7.14 Top Twenty Carbon Emitters in 2003 350 7.15 Projections ofWorld Energy Demand and Emissions, 2003-30: IEA and Maddison 351 7.16 Dynamic Forces Driving GlobalWarming in and within the IPCC Storylines 355 7.17 IPCC A1 Scenario with Exchange Rate and PPP Converters, 1990-2100 359 7.18 IPCC A1 Scenario with Exchange Rate and PPP Converters, 2000-2030 359 7.19 Production of Crude Oil, NLG, and Natural Gas, 1973-2003 367 7.20 Production of Coal, 1973-2003 368 7.21 Biggest Net Exporters and Importers of Energy, 2003 368 A.1 World Population: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 376 A.2 Rate of Growth ofWorld Population: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 377 A.3 Share ofWorld Population: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 378 A.4 World GDP: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 379 A.5 Rate of Growth ofWorld GDP: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 380 A.6 Share ofWorld GDP: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 381 A.7 World per Capita GDP: 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 1-2003?? 382 A.8 Rate of Growth ofWorld per Capita GDP: 20 Countries and Regional Averages, 1-2003?? 383 B.1 Basic Components of Growth Accounts I: US, UK, and Japan, 1820-2003 384 B.2 Basic Components of Growth Accounts II: US, UK, and Japan, 1820-2003 385 B.3 Comparative Growth Performance of the US, UK, and Japan, 1820-2003 386 LIST OF BOXES 3.1 China’s Emergence from International Isolation, 1949-2001 168 4.1 European Enclaves and Colonies in Africa, 1415-1919 226