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Philippines Food and Drink Report 2008


Description: This Philippines Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines food and drink industry.

Executive Summary

Activity in the Philippines food and beverage sector continues to be dominated by expansionary regional giant San Miguel Corporation (SMC). The company has hardly been out of the news in the last 12 months and yet its activity has overshadowed other key events which show a high potential food and beverage market, but one blighted by existing low consumption and some major challenges for producers. In this report we identify these opportunities and challenges, both for existing investors and interested parties.

The presence of SMC represents both an opportunity and a challenge. The work the behemoth has done in establishing an audience for branded food and beverage products in the country, and in introducing industry best practices, has eased the workload of would-be investors. However, on the flipside, the company continues to represent a formidable opponent, and competing with the company in terms of market share, sales, branding, distribution and new product development has been viewed by many in the past as simply too big a challenge.

SMC, however, faces its own challenges. Dominating beer sales and with a strong liquor, snack food and agri-business presence, the company is now searching for new challenges. Having targeted so-called heavy industries - mining, power and infrastructure among others - SMC spent the latter half of 2007 planning how it would fund its new enterprises, the result being the sale of its Australian businesses and the separate listing of its domestic beer and packaging divisions.

Nonetheless, SMC being so dominant that it is forced to look elsewhere for growth has not stopped a number of other big names from investing in the Philippines. Soft drink majors The Coca-Cola Company (formerly in partnership with SMC but now alone after a 2007 falling out) and PepsiCo are both present and continue to invest in expansion and new product development, even though BMI estimates that per capita soft drink consumption in the country stands at just US$7.50. Likewise, local major Universal Robina Corp continues to plough money into new product development, even though per capita food consumption of just US$261 in 2007 suggests a fairly small audience for these products and even though such investments are having a negative effect on profitability.

The willingness of these companies to invest, despite the small returns presently on offer, suggests confidence in industry growth in the Philippines, and BMI lends cautious support to this view. We expect annual GDP growth to average 5.7% to 2012, while population growth of 9.5% to 96.3mn in 2012 will greatly enlarge the potential audience size of these companies. Nonetheless, we expect total food consumption to increase by just 5.7% to 2012, as lower income rural groups continue to drag down the rising urban average. Within this climate, investment in the Philippines’ food and beverage industry is likely to remain fairly steady as opposed to explosive.


Contents: Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108
Philippines’ Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Philippines Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Philippines Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Declining Role Of Independent Retail In Asia Pacific
Table: MGR Versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (store numbers)
Table: MGR versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (sales, US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Philippines Mass Grocery Retail Sales (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts by Format
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of the Philippines Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of the Philippines Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Sales per Outlet by Format - 2007
Food and Drink
Food Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region
Drink Regional Overview: Wine In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Australian Wine Exports To Selected Asian Markets
Table: Wine Sales In Selected Asia Pacific Markets - Historical Data And Forecasts (mn litres)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sectoral trade indicators
Drink
Table: Philippines Beverage Sub-Sector Indicators - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Food
Table: Philippines Production in Selected Agricultural Sub-sectors (US$mn) - Historical Data
Table: Philippines Production in Selected Agricultural Sub-sectors (metric tonnes, unless stated) - Historical Data
Table: Philippines Organic Agricultural Data
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape.
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in the Philippines Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Food and Drink
Key Players in the Philippines Food & Drink Industry
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107 (%)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Mass Grocery Retail: Metro In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Metro Group - Five-Year Financial Results
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
SM Investments - Retail Business (SM)
Philippine Seven Corp
Food
Universal Robina Corp (URC)
Drink
Tanduay Holdings
San Miguel Beer Division (Unit of San Miguel Corporation, SMC)
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
Our Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources




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