WiMAX Explosion

FIND OUT NOW ---
-How will really Big Money be made?
-Which Business Model wins?
-How do carriers maximize cash flow, ARPU, revenue per $ invested?
-What service bundle(s) achieve $70-90 ARPU?
-Is Clearwire better positioned than Sprint?
-Is Sprint’s $3B projection to cover 100M POPs achievable?
-Which alliances are critical?
-How important is fixed/mobile convergence? Why?

“The WiMAX Explosion!” identifies crucial strategy issues and implications.
- If WiMAX carriers “get it right” –
--Will cellular peak in the next 3-to-5 years?
--Will cable be threatened – short and long-term?
--Will telcos’ decline be irreversible?
- How can WiMAX be vital to the critical interests of IT/Internet companies?
- Which radical developments in handsets/devices can WiMAX capitalize on?
- Are there new retail mass marketing strategies WiMAX can dovetail with?
- How crucial is the U.S. market? What are differences in LDCs, other markets?

“The WiMAX EXPLOSION!” drives to the core of the major Business Issues and keys to the profit model of WiMAX. It provides a focused strategy and business model analysis of WiMAX – in-depth. It includes results of an 8-month WiMAX Business Model Project,conducted by two of the leading broadband wireless experts in the industry. There has been a lack of analysis of business issues related to WiMAX. This unprecedented study fills that need and breaks with earlier assumptions and stereotypes.

This study documents:
-WiMAX has vast global potential; the U.S. experience is a potential accelerant in a global WiMAX firestorm.
-WiMAX has a highly time-sensitive window to succeed; its major handicap is – key business model and marketing steps for its success have not yet been taken.
-A newly defined Business Model for WiMAX – explained in the study – produces high EBITDA returns, strong subscriber RGU/ARPU growth, the highest revenue per $ invested.
-Results of 5 proprietary models (over 300 spreadsheet items) verify how well carriers fare under different WiMAX marketing approaches and in different types of markets.

The study is comprehensive and also includes:
- Who Is Threatened. Why cable, telcos and cellular will likely be blindsided. Risks of their “magnet” application marketing. What they can do.
- Company Evaluations. In-depth Clearwire, Sprint profiles. Key players: vendors, carriers, others. Vital interests of IT/Internet companies, DBS.
- Success Factors. Why some standards succeed, while others don't.
-Technology Assessment. Potential advantages of WiMAX weighed with technical cumen (Al Boschulte has been CEO & chief engineer at leading wireless companies and a board member of NASDAQ high-tech companies).
- Competitive Dynamics. Time critical nature of WiMAX opportunities – in the U.S., in advanced markets, in LDCs. Impact on different types of players
- Global Trends. Analyzes seven powerful global trends and how WiMAX benefits. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

- OVERVIEW
- WiMAX – Catalyst For Industry Disruption
- "Now" Communications – WiMAX And the Beginning of Modern Communications
- WiMAX – The Key Is Addressing Business Issues
- Where WiMAX Fits Into This Era Of Major Changes
- Implications For the Industry Leaders
- This Is The Beginning of The Process

Chapter 1 – The WiMAX Explosion!
- Defining "The WiMAX Explosion!"
- WiMAX – The Window of Opportunity: Significant Findings
- Business Strategies Are The Critical Driver
- Why Business Models Are Such An Issue For WiMAX
- The Primary Importance of The US Market – Sprint and Clearwire
- Broadband and Convergence – Issues For Traditional Wireless and Wired Worlds
- Broadband Growth Outlook
- The Big Picture – 7 Powerful Global Trends Helping WiMAX
- WiMAX and Telecom Goals of Less Developed Countries
- WiMAX and The Interests of the IT/Internet Industry
- WiMAX Positioning – Key Factors, Recent Developments, Pluses and Minuses
- Resolving the Confusion About WiMAX Business Strategy
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – Short Term Revolution vs Long Term Evolution

Chapter 2 - WiMAX – Dissecting The Technology Issues
- Broadband Technologies and Convergence
- Wireless Broadband Technologies
- Why WiMAX
- Background: RAN Standards Progression
- 3 Keys To Success For New Standards
- Radio Access Technology Evolution
- OFDMA and MIMO
- Technology Evolution in the Marketplace: The WiMAX Advantage
- WiMAX Versus Other Wireless Standards, Pros and Cons
- Overview: Meaningful Criteria For Carriers
- WiMAX Handhelds and Ecosystem
- WiMAX and Video – IPTV/WebTV
- Summary of "Why WiMAX"
- Wired Broadband Technologies
- Wired Carriers' Potential Use of Wireless
- Summary of Wireless and Broadband – Technology Perspective
- Convergence Technologies
- How Wireless Broadband Erodes Wired Markets Faster Than Expected
- Growth of Wireless BB Versus Growth of Wireless Voice

Chapter 3 - Crucial Business Model Issue – Matching WiMAX To The Market
- Capitalizing On Broadband And Convergence
- "Magnet" Applications of Traditional Carriers – Broadband Is Not One of Them
- Broadband The New "Magnet" Application
- And So We Arrive At Convergence
- Convergence and Revenue Models
- Will WiMAX Business Models Be Matched To the Market Opportunity?
- WiMAX – Need For New Business Model Thinking
- "Mobile Internet" – Only Part of the Potential
- Redefining Wireline Communications – Rather Than DSL Replacement
- Three Business Approaches Analyzed: 1) "Mobile Internet," 2) "DSL Replacement,"
- 3) "Now Communications"
- Overview of 3 Approaches
- "Mobile Internet" Internet Approach
- DSL Replacement
- Now Communication
- Models: Four Models of Advanced Country WiMAX
- The IT/Internet Influence on the Vendor Business Model For WiMAX
- Business Model – Vendor View

Chapter 4 – WiMAX Vendor Value Chain
- Vendor Value Chain Overview
- Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)
- Components
- Intel
- Emerging Component Suppliers
- Qualcomm's Developing WiMAX Strategies
- TI & Others
- Infrastructure
- Major Global Vendors
- Smaller Vendors
- Infrastructure: Market Share Outlook and Forecast, 2006-2010
- Major Vendor Assessments
- Nokia Siemens
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Motorola
- Samsung
- Nortel
- Fujitsu
- Huawei and ZTE
- What about Ericsson?
- Early Entrants: Assessments
- Navini
- Aperto
- Airspan
- Alvarion
- Non Standard Shooting Stars – Flarion (Qualcomm), IP Wireless (NextWave)
- Handhelds
- Overview of WiMAX Handhelds
- Samsung
- Motorola and Nokia
- Handset Pricing

Chapter 5 – Clearwire – Why It Is Well-Positioned
- Introduction
- Key Aspects of Clearwire
- Clearing Up Confusion About Clearwire
- Pre-WiMAX Results
- Clearwire's Main Growth Challenge
- Other Issues For Clearwire

Chapter 6 – The Challenging Outlook For Sprint Nextel
- Sprint's Path to Becoming a WiMAX Leader
- Sprint's BB Wireless Background
- Sprint WiMAX Plans
- Sprint's Performance Issues – Putting WiMAX in Perspective
- Sprint's Uncertainties Regarding WiMAX
- Sprint WiMAX Outlook

Chapter 7 – Competitive Dynamics – The Future of US Telecom Markets
- The Entrenched Communications Structure Is Ripe To Be Jolted
- Positioning of Key Competitors – Carriers
- Wireline Segment
- Wireless Segment
- Satellite Broadcasters (DBS)
- Other WiMAX Entrants
- NextWave
- Horizon Wi-Com LLC
- Mobile Satellite Ventures
- Other Mobile Satellite Players
- Aloha Partners
- Other WiMAX Companies – Towerstream, Xanadoo (Pegasus), ValTech,
- Moline Dispatch
- Competitive Dynamics – Where WiMAX Fits In
- WiMAX and the 700 MHz Auction
- Attractiveness of 700 MHz Spectrum
- The Impending Auction – FCC Threatens To Curb Competition
- 700 Auction – Significance For WiMAX; Outlook
- Scenarios – WiMAX As a Catalyst For Industry Restructuring
- 1 Wireline – Redefining Wireline – driven by national WiMAX carriers
- 2 Wireline – Adoption by Independent Telcos
- 3 Wireline – The RBOCs
- 4 Wireless – The RBOCs
- 5 Satellite Broadcasters (DBS)
- 6 Cable (Comcast and the Sprint Possibilities)
- 7 IT/Internet – Intel, Google and others

Chapter 8 – WiMAX Business Models – 4 Cases
- Introduction: Five Cases Examine
- Summary of Model Results – Three National Rollout Strategies
- Conclusions About National Rollout Models
- Summary of Model Assumptions
- Investment Assumptions
- Optimization
- Operating Expense Assumptions
- COS
- SG&A
- Depreciation
- Penetration Rates
- Revenue Assumptions
- Model #1 – Medium Sized – Urban Suburban 500K-1M POPs
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- Model #2 – DSL Replacement-based US National Rollout
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- Model #3 – Mobile Internet US National Rollout
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- Model #4 – Now Communications US National Rollout
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- National Rollout Model Comparisons
- Assessing the Models

Chapter 9 – Global WiMAX Opportunities
- Overview
- Impact Of US WiMAX On Rest of World
- Examples – 19 Countries In 10 Regions
- Issues For Advanced vs Less Developed Countries (LDCs)
- Spectrum Overview
- Advanced Markets – EU, Advanced Asia/Pac
- EU
- Asia/Pacific Advanced Markets
- Fixed Line Carriers
- Vodafone
- LDC – BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, China, India) Asia/Pac, EEur, Lat Am, MidE
- Test Case – India
- India – Telecom Status and Overview
- India – Spectrum and WiMAX Activity
- India – WiMAX Outlook
- Major Potential Impact – OLPC (one laptop per child)
- LDC Business Model
- Differences From US/Advanced Market Models
- Demographics and Markets
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – US Forecast
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – Advanced Markets Forecast
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – LDCs Forecast
- WiMAX – Total Global Growth Outlook
- US Market – The Accelerant In the Global WiMAX Firestorm

List of Charts:
- Chart 1-1 Cellphones per POP & Telephone Lines per POP
- Chart 2-1 WiMAX Certification Process and Development Waves
- Chart 2-2 Average Network Latency by Technology
- Chart 2-3 Spectral Efficiency
- Chart 2-4 Mobile Wireless BB Development vs Wired Development
- Chart 2-5 Mobile Wireless BB Development
- Chart 3-1 Converged WiMAX Network Diagram
- Chart 3-2 Current Mobility Network Diagram
- Chart 3-3 MSO-Hybrid Fiber (HFC) Architecture
- Chart 3-4 FiOS Network Diagram
- Chart 4-1 Handheld Wholesale Price Trends Learning Curves
- Chart 7-1 700 Auction – FCC Economic Area Groupings (EAGs)
- Chart 7-2 700 Auction – FCC Cellular Market Areas (CMAs) and Economic Areas (EAs)
- Chart 8-1 Revenue Growth – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-2 Operating Income Growth – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-3 Oper Income As % of Investment – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-4 ARPU Comparison – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-5 Growth of Consumer RGUs – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 9-1 Penetration of Cellphones and Telephones By Region
- Chart 9-2 Internet and Broadband Penetration By Region
- Chart 9-3 Global WiMAX Spectrum Allocations

List of Figures:
- Figure 2-1 Criteria For RAN Ascendancy
- Figure 2-2 The Evolution of The Radio Air Interface Standard
- Figure 2-3 MIMO Base Station and Handhelds Diagram
- Figure 2-4 The Wireless Broadband Access Evolution

List of Tables:
- Table 1-1 Global WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 1-2 Mobile Subscribers & 3G Subscribers, 2006
- Table 2-1 GSM/UMTS Technology Evolution
- Table 2-2 CDMA Technology Evolution
- Table 2-3 Expected Certification Dates For WiMAX Products
- Table 2-4 Radio Access Networks Standards – US Progression
- Table 2-5 MIMO Data Rates
- Table 2-6 Data Throughput (Commercially deployable) WiMAX vs Cellular 2007-2009
- Table 2-7 WiMAX Equivalency To Other Technologies – Video & Other Applications
- Table 2-8 DSL vs Cable Modems – OECD Countries
- Table 2-9 Broadband Wired vs Wireless Capabilities, Downlink Speeds 2007 & 2008-2010
- Table 3-1 Magnet Services and Add-Ons: Cable, Wireless, Telco
- Table 3-2 Telecom Network Technology Development Cycle – Pre-2000
- Table 3-3 Telecom Network Digital Media Development Cycle – Today
- Table 3-4 Wireless Network Music Development Cycle – 2001-07
- Table 3-5 Data Revenues of Leading US Mobile Carriers, 2006
- Table 3-6 Mobile Data/Content Use, By Category 1/07
- Table 3-7 Broadband Household Growth In US – 2000-2006
- Table 3-8 Summary of Three Business Approaches For WiMAX
- Table 4-1 Intel – 2006-07 WiMAX Chip Developments
- Table 4-2 Emerging Component Suppliers, WiMAX, MIMO, Handsets
- Table 4-3 Infrastructure Vendor Positioning
- Table 4-4 WiMAX Equipment Vendors Projected Global Market Shares, to 2010
- Table 4-5 WiMAX Handheld and Device Availability
- Table 4-6 Mobile WiMAX HH/Device Models as of 3/07
- Table 5-1 Clearwire Growth – No of POPs Covered, 2006-08
- Table 5-2 Clearwire Q1 2007 Operating Results
- Table 6-1 25 GHz Spectrum Holdings – Sprint & Nextel
- Table 6-2 Sprint BB Wireless Initiatives 2004-05
- Table 6-3 Sprint – WiMAX Plans as of Q1 2007
- Table 6-4 Sprint and Nextel Comparison
- Table 6-5 Sprint-Cable Developments 2006-07
- Table 7-1 US Wireline Telco Access Line Losses, 2000-2007
- Table 7-2 US Growth of Cable and Direct Broadcast Satellite, 2001-06
- Table 7-3 UHF 700 Auctions Spectrum – Original Breakdown – 60 MHz
- Table 7-4 UHF 700 Auctions Spectrum – Tentative New Breakdown – 60 MHz
- Table 8-1 Five WiMAX Business Model Cases
- Table 8-2 National Rollout Models – Year-5 Penetration Rates, By Service (RGU) & Bundle Type
- Table 8-3 National Rollout Models – Year-5 – Summary Results
- Table 8-4 National Rollout Models – Year-5 – Key Metrics
- Table 8-5 Summary of Base Station Costs, By Category
- Table 8-6 Projected End User Device Costs/Pricing 2008-2012
- Table 8-7 Estimated Costs For SME WiMAX System
- Table 8-8 Business Model Service Mix & Bundles
- Table 8-9 3 National Rollout Models – Service Pricing
- Table 8-10 Mid-Sized City Model #1 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-11 Mid-Sized City Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-12 Mid-Sized City Service Revenue Growth
- Table 8-13 Mid-Sized City Expense Growth
- Table 8-14 Mid-Sized City Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-15 Mid-Sized City ARPU & CPGA
- Table 8-16 DSL Replacement Model #2 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-17 DSL Replacement Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-18 DSL Replacement Service Revenue Growth
- Table 8-19 DSL Replacement Expense Growth
- Table 8-20 DSL Replacement Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-21 DSL Replacement ARPU & CPGA
- Table 8-22 Mobile Internet Model #3 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-23 Mobile Internet Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-24 Mobile Internet Service Revenue Growth
- Table 8-25 Mobile Internet Expense Growth
- Table 8-26 Mobile Internet Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-27 Mobile Internet ARPU & CPGA
- Table 8-28 Now Communications Model #4 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-29 Now Communications Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-30 Now Communications Revenue Growth
- Table 8-31 Now Communications Expense Growth
- Table 8-32 Now Communications Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-33 Now Communications ARPU & CPGA
- Table 9-1 Selected 80216-2005 Developments
- Table 9-2 Selected Countries and Regions
- Table 9-3 19 Countries – Demographic and Telecom Overview
- Table 9-4 Regions Ranked By: Cellphones/POP; Telephone Lines/POP, Internet Users/POP Broadband Users/POP
- Table 9-5 Major EU Country WiMAX Spectrum Auctions
- Table 9-6 Spectrum Frequency vs No of Cellsites – US
- Table 9-7 India – Telecom Subscribers 2005-2006 (Mil)
- Table 9-8 India – WiMAX Potential Base Stations, 2010
- Table 9-9 LDC Model #5 – Investment Summary
- Table 9-10 LDC Service Pricing Structure
- Table 9-11 LDC Service Revenue Growth
- Table 9-12 LDC Expense Growth
- Table 9-13 LDC Summary P&L Statement
- Table 9-14 US WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 9-15 Advanced Markets (Non-US) WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 9-16 LDC Markets – WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 9-17 Global WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012

WIMAX – CATALYST FOR INDUSTRY DISRUPTION WiMAX is a trigger, a catalyst for enormous potential change in telecom, including the worlds of wireless, telcos, cable, media and the Internet.

These changes, which go far beyond the market share that WiMAX will directly capture, will emanate from the U.S. market to the rest of the world.

In the U.S. these changes can challenge and may even threaten all entrenched communications companies – even ones as large as AT&T, Verizon and Comcast – legacy operators of all types, both fixed and wireless.

The impact of WiMAX rests on: 1) the timing of its arrival and 2) its interaction with several other powerful factors impinging on the future of communications and media.

There are two basic views of how significant WiMAX can be, one a more narrow perspective, the other a far broader based one. Whether WiMAX can get to the broader based impact depends on how skillfully it is marketed and on its interaction with these other major factors. WiMAX is like an accelerator, a launch system for change and eventual industry overhaul and restructuring.

To put the U.S. telecom and related industries in perspective (some of which is applicable to other advanced markets to some extent), the industry never completed the logical restructuring that began with the massive upheaval of the late '90s and 2000-2002 period. This upheaval led to hyper consolidation and formation of mega businesses – AT&T, Verizon, Comcast – that are going through a Cinderella period in which, with no direct challenger – YET – they are enjoying ascendancy and profits.

What does WiMAX add that is very important to the future? WiMAX provides Post- Convergence networking and advanced Broadband – vital pieces in transforming telecommunications.

Its ultimate importance will depend on its ability to act in conjunction with the other massive forces pressing against these legacy telecom giants. BSG believes that three of these forces will be particularly decisive.

A. The Changing Device World – which demands that value migrate from networks to devices and that is being guided by the world-class device leader, Apple. WiMAX – The BSG Business Case 2

B. The Imperatives of the IT/Internet Industry – which must fight through a war to deter legacy telecom (wireless-telco-cable), which is trying to tax, slow down and impede the wild proliferation of applications and content vital to IT/Internet's future. This charge is led by Google, Intel, Yahoo, eBay (Skype), with Microsoft laboring to catch up.

C. Consumer Electronics Mass Retailing – which is where telecom will inevitably wind up being marketed, but which requires: a simple, complete, uniform and universal type of product set – that WiMAX can begin to provide and that legacy companies cannot.

The trajectory that WiMAX takes is vitally dependent on its success in the U.S. market, which will indicate the extent of its overall potential. While many smaller WiMAX vendors may be concerned about the initial U.S.-centric nature of WiMAX, it is not a negative issue for them. The rest of the world, as we show in this study (see Chapter 9), will develop WiMAX in a more piecemeal manner allowing them the opportunity to participate and gain business. And the rest of the world will benefit from the advances in WiMAX derived from the U.S., where the WiMAX ecosystem will be built and honed.

How far WiMAX can go to fulfill its potential is already in the balance as U.S. leaders, Sprint and Clearwire, descend on the market and the U.S. prepares for the 2008 industry-changing 700 MHz auction.

In this study, culminating a multi-month project undertaken by leading industry executive and technologist Al Boschulte (former CEO of NYNEX Mobile, executive, consultant and builder of telecommunications companies worldwide) and Victor Schnee, highly acclaimed for his telecom forecasting record – BSG defines not only the key issues, but the specific critical steps WiMAX must take to put itself in position to capitalize on this opportunity.

The study addresses and articulates the opportunity – and the threat – that must be confronted by every carrier, would-be competitor, equipment provider, component maker, media, content and applications company: all of the vast array of wireless, telecom, cable/satellite, IT/Internet
and media companies whose futures are vitally involved.