Cote-d’Ivoire Mobile: Still Solid, but Increasingly Tough Cash Flow Environment

AfricaNext, May 2008, Pages: 20

Cote-d’Ivoire’s economy remains in recovery mode, even as the country continues to enjoy the returns from increased political stability. The recovery phase will continue in 2008 but will be fragile, as tensions slowly rise in the run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for November 2008. While mobile revenue potential remains solid, we believe the market is seeing a shift to a lesser quality of growth: organic revenue growth is slowing, owing to lower marginal growth, market maturity and the law of large figures.

The Ivorian opex environment is one of the least friendly in the region, and capex risk is moderate. Ultimately, we are cautious on the return potential of the Cote-d’Ivoire combination: slower revenue growth, intense competition, capex-intense, politically volatile.

There is a shift to a lesser quality of growth: organic revenue growth is slowing, owing to lower marginal growth, market maturity and the law of large figures. We see an acute deterioration in marginal revenue, one that could be further exacerbated if the demand environment continues to worsen and we are forecasting average revenue growth of 6% over the next five years. The Ivorian Opex environment is one of the least friendly in the region. Interconnect termination rates are higher than average, intense competition has put pressure on dealer commissions, network costs are high, as are annual regulatory fees.

Capex risk is moderate: Population coverage is possible with less than 500-1000 base stations, and much of the traffic is concentrated in the three largest cities. Some investment in transmission is required, but the fixed carrier network can fulfill basic needs.

Competitive intensity: Once a safe competitive bet (two large players only), Cote-d’Ivoire is now one of the most competitive markets in West Africa. We expect net adds market share to continue to fluctuate. Churn levels are higher and attracting customers is no longer enough.

Executive Summary

Business Environment: Calmer, But Still Fragile
Regulatory Barometer: Outdated, Confusing, But Still Somewhat Effective
Mobile Market: Solid Growth In Tough Conditions
Arpu & Revenue Dynamics: A Deteriorating Revenue Environment
Key Player Share Analysis: The Rise Of Moov And Comium
Country Opex Profile: Higher Than The African Average
Country Capex Profile: Pace Of Spending Is Slowing
Summary Fcf Profile: Headwinds Ahead
Key Player Swot Analysis - Mtn Cote-D’ivoire, Position Under Challenge
Key Player Swot Analysis - Orange Cote-D’ivoire, Position Similarly Under Challenge
Key Player Swot Analysis - Moov Cote-D’ivoire / Koz Cote-D’ivoire: Growth Vs. Profitability
Market Outlook – Projection Table

The Africanext Market Watchlist

- Orange
- MTN
- Atlantique Telecom
- Comium

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