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Poland Food and Drink Report Q3 2008


Description: This report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's food and drink industry.

Poland represents a moderately attractive destination for investment, as illustrated by its position in the sixth place in our Q308 Business Environment Ranking table surveying 14 markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Poland benefits from strong consumption rates and a large population, as well as a vast agricultural sector and an attractive business environment. On the downside, consumption levels per capita continue to lag behind Western European standards, primarily due to considerably lower GDP per capita. Nevertheless, the market continues to exhibit considerable dynamism, as illustrated by a number of deals in the past few months. On the other hand, however, some companies are deciding to leave the country.

One of the most notable among all industry developments is the April 2008 merger between Czech Kofola Holding and Hoop of Poland, which created a regional drinks major under the name Kofola- Hoop Group. The new entity, now present in five CEE markets, will be looking to strengthen its position further through acquisitions, despite its decision to exit Hungary, following a drop in sales and recorded 2007 losses.

In the food sector, US ingredients producer Cargill, and Solae – an alliance between DuPont and Bunge – both confirmed their intention to increase their presence in the country. The former completed the US$35mn expansion of the Polish wheat processing factory, in response to rising consumer demand across Europe. The latter plans to launch new soy-based products in the country, aiming to take advantage of the increased interest in healthy foods. At present, Solae’s products are mostly used in Poland for their gelling and emulsifying properties in meat production, but as this market reaches maturity, Solae is looking for new avenues of growth.

In terms of the Polish mass grocery retail (MGR) scene, the intensification of competition has already resulted in consolidation, especially following recent acquisition of the Ahold Polska store network by French retailer Carrefour. This followed the deal between Germany’s Tengelmann and Portuguese discount retailer Jerónimo Martins, which was already the leading discount operator in Poland.

Moreover, in April 2008, UK retail company Tesco announced a new wave of expansions for the Polish and Slovakian markets, as it invests further in strengthening its position in these countries, while German discounter Aldi finally opened its first stores in Poland. Given such developments, other companies are rumoured to be looking to exit the market, with Schwarz Group-run retailer Lidl reportedly seeking a buyer for its 260-strong discount store network in May 2008.


Contents: Executive Summary 6
Business Environment 7
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 7
Table: CEE Food & Drink Ratings – Q308 10
Poland’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating 10
Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 11

SWOT Analysis 12
Food And Drink 12
Poland Food And Drink Industry SWOT 12
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 13
Macroeconomic Outlook 14
Table: Poland Economic Activity 15
Food 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Food Consumption 16
Table: Poland Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 16
Confectionery 17
Table: Poland Confectionery Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 17
Canned Food 17
Table: Poland Canned Foods Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 17
Trade 18
Table: Poland Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data & Forecasts 18
Industry Developments 18
Market Overview 20
Food Consumption 20
Confectionery 21
Canned Food 21
Trade 21
Agriculture 22
Drink 24

Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Table: Drinks indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 25
Table: Hot Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecas 25
Table: Soft Drinks indicators – Historical Data & Forecas 26
Industry Developments 26
Market Overview 28
Agriculture At A Glance 32
Table: Poland Organic Agricultural Data 32
Agricultural Commodity Price 33
Retail 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) 35
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 36
Industry Developments 36
Market Overview 37
Main MGR Players 39
Table: Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets 40
Table: Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn) 41
Table: Average Annual Value Of Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2007 41
Competitive Landscape 42

Key Players 42
Mass Grocery Retail 42
Table: Key Players In Poland’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 42
Food And Drink 43
Table: Key Players – Poland's Food & Drink Sector 2007 Estimates 43
Company Analysis 44
Mass Grocery Retail 44
Metro Polska 44
Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins) 45
Food 46
Nestlé Polska 46
Drink 47
Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) 47
Carlsberg Polska 48
Hoop 49
Deep US Recession Scenario 50
Global Scenario 50
Table: World GDP Growth 50
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth, and Private Consumption Growth 51
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth 52
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth 53
Table: China GDP Growth 54
Table: Mexico GDP Growth 54
Table: Africa GDP Growth 55
CEE Food & Drink Scenario 56
Table: Impact Of Deep Us Recession On Total Food Consumption (US$Bn) In Selected CEE Markets - Cumulative US$ Impact Over 5yr Forecast Period 57

Appendix 60
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 60
Ratings Methodology 60
Ratings Overview 60
Ratings System 60
Indicators 60
Limits Of Potential Returns 61
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 62
Weighting 63
Weighting 63
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 64
Food & Drink 64
Mass Grocery Retail 64
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Sourcing 67


Companies Mentioned - Metro Polska - Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins) - Nestlé Polska - Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) - Carlsberg Polska - Hoop


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