Personal Viewers: Sony and Apple Eye Accelerating Growth

Now that personal viewers (head-mounted displays) have become competitive, sales of consumer personal viewers are accelerating each year, up from 50% in 2006 toward 100% growth in 2008. Consumer markets are forecast to grow to $1.1B in the base case and $2.8B in the upside scenario. Faster growth is being driven by:

-Decline in cost of microdisplays and components

-Consumer acceptance of QVGA resolution and availability of VGA

-Increased volume for all headsets and headset components

-Anticipated entry of major players (Sony, Apple) into the market

The “Anywhere Anytime Infotainment” revolution is under way, fueled by rocketing flash memory price/performance, and it is spurring use of Personal Viewers:

-Popularity of “pocket video platforms” such as iPod, mobile phones, and personal video players

-Dramatic increase in content availability and portability

-Video viewing and exchange popularity with consumers
--Increasing use of camera phones to take video
--Internet video-sharing websites (YouTube and similar)
--Increasing availability of video for purchase on the Internet

Personal Viewers offer the only comfortable way to view an acceptable-sized image on a pocket video platform while maintaining pocket portability.

Next Generation Designs
Today’s personal viewers provide video only with limited visibility of the environment. Sony and Apple are developing the next generation personal viewer, the navigation/video sunglasses. These products will offer navigation features in full see-through mode as well as video viewing with a clip-on to block the background. We expect that clip-ons will be available to provide both see-periphery views of the environment, as well as full blocking of the environment to enable video immersion when desired. This new versatile product generation will further accelerate acceptance and sales of personal viewers.

The large and profitable market for personal viewers for military use, already surpassing $1B in sales in 2008, will continue to grow to nearly $3B in 2012. Higher military sales are being driven by deployment of enhanced night vision viewers offering thermal imaging as well as night vision, increased used of thermal weapons sights and helmet-mounted displays, and the trend toward higher definition, color displays in military weapons systems.

The report focuses on likely market entry strategies, timing and products for Sony and Apple, key success factors for consumer adoption, and how other market players can benefit from Sony and Apple’s entry.

WHO SHOULD BUY AND WHY

The report is a comprehensive tool for consumer and vertical market electronics industry professionals to understand the timing and scope of emerging opportunities, and to develop their company’s response to those opportunities:

-Mobile phone headset and handset makers – Understand how and when displays will be incorporated into cell phone headsets, pricing and cost impact.

-Portable DVD makers – Understand opportunities for upscale portable DVDs incorporating Personal (big-screen) TVs, pricing and cost impact.

-Cell phone network service providers – Higher-definition displays in headsets allows delivery of more sophisticated value-added wireless services.

-PDA/Smartphone makers – Viewer Headset boosts attractiveness and usefulness of PDAs, design implications.

-Personal Viewer (PV) makers – Understand how and when high-volume Personal Viewer sales will emerge, learn success factors for the emerging PV solutions

-Microdisplay makers – Understand price and performance requirements and timing for the microdisplays to be incorporated in the new PV products

SCOPE AND QUESTIONS ADDRESSED
The study incorporates a number of improvements in scope and coverage compared to the 2006 report, including:

-Forecast by military, commercial and consumer markets

-Discussion of Sony and Apple development of navigation/video sunglasses, product description for this new product

-Detailed forecast of military sales by application/product

-Detailed forecast of consumer sales by application/product

-Formation and activities of the Personal Viewer Industry Association

-Updated forecast of the adoption sequence for Personal Viewers by application

-Two scenarios
--Base Case with Sony market entry in 2010 with modest results
--Upside scenario with Sony market entry in 2010 with good results and 2012 market entry by Apple

-Forecast of microdisplay demand by technology, including demand for HTPS and DMD microdisplays for the first time

The study continues to incorporate the following features:

-Market trends on video content and Anywhere Anytime Infotainment

-Streamlined graphical company profiles

-Analysis of potential hurdles or obstacles to success

-Detailed analysis of comfort parameters and specific comfort vulnerabilities and requirements for personal displays

-Analysis of the consumer use model for Personal Viewers

-In-depth review of the five key personal viewer success factors

-Competitive positioning of companies by market

-Forecast by type of personal viewer (binocular immersive, monocular, etc.)

-Pricing trends on microdisplays

-Consumer preference for microdisplay definition

-New technology advances such as binocular designs

-Forecast of microdisplay demand by definition

-Forecast of microdisplay demand by color

-Forecast of microdisplay demand by technology

-Appendix on comparative pricing and value for personal displays versus other types of displays

-Appendix on basics of near-eye systems

Technology Scope. The following display technologies are included:
-SCS: Single crystal silicon
-LCOS: Liquid crystal on silicon (including F-LCOS)
-HTPS: High temperature polysilicon (AMLCD), which category includes other transmissive LCD microdisplays
-LTPS: Low temperature polysilicon (AMLCD)
-Beam-scan: Laser or optical beam-scan
-OLED: Organic light-emitting diode, both small molecule and polymer OLED
-DMD: Digital micro-mirror device
-CRT: micro-cathode ray tubes

Market Scope. Personal viewers designed for the following market segments are included:
-Military
-Commercial
-Consumer

Product Scope. The following types of personal displays are included:
-Binocular immersive
-Binocular see-periphery
-Binocular see-through (navigation/video sunglasses)
-Monocular see-around
-Monocular see-through

METHODOLOGY
The study is based on a recent, wide-ranging industry phone survey. Marketing and technology leaders of major players throughout the value chain were surveyed by telephone during the summer of 2008. Secondary published sources were also consulted in preparing this study. The report also draws heavily on our extensive research of applications for microdisplays accumulated over the past decade, including prior reports on personal viewers and in-lab testing of human factors of personal viewers.

1 Executive Summary

2 Market and Industry Trends
2.1 Emergence of "Anywhere Anytime Infortainment"
2.2 Clearer Consumer Requirements for Definition
2.3 Headsets Becoming More Mainstream
2.4 Personal Video Viewer pricing
2.5 Personal Viewer Industry Association

3 Product Opportunities for the Consumer Market
3.1 Personal Video Viewer (Personal TV)
3.2 Navigation/Video Sunglasses
3.3 Console Gaming Viewers
3.4 PC Gaming Viewers
3.5 Toy Viewers
3.6 Other types of consumer personal viewers

4 Product Opportunities for the Military Market
4.1 Enhanced Night Vision Viewers
4.2 Thermal Weapons Sights
4.3 Helmet-Mounted Displays
4.4 Other types of military personal viewers

5 Pico-Projectors vs. Personal Viewers

6 Personal Viewers Forecast - Base Case
6.1 Forecast Overview
6.2 Forecast by Market
6.3 Forecast by Type of Personal Viewer
6.4 Military Market Forecast by Application
6.5 Consumer Market Forecast by Application

7 Personal Viewers Forecast - Upside
7.1 Forecast by Overview
7.2 Forecast by Market
7.3 Forecast by Type
7.4 Military Market Forecast by Application
7.5 Consumer Market Forecast by Application

8 Competitive Positioning
8.1 Overview
8.2 Military
8.3 Commercial
8.4 Consumer

9 Potential Hurdles to Success
9.1 Improved Cost/Performance
9.2 Improved Content Availability for Mobile Platforms
9.3 Cost-Effective Consumer Marketing and Promotion

10 Microdisplays Demand Forecast - Base Case
10.1 Total Microdisplays
10.2 Colour vs. Monochrome
10.3 Colour Microdisplays
10.4 Monochrome Microdisplays
10.5 Forecast Demand by Display Technology

11 Microdisplay Demand Forecast - Upside
11.1 Total Microdisplays by Definition
11.2 Colour vs. Monochrome
11.3 Colour Microdisplays
11.4 Monochrome Microdisplays
11.5 Forecast Demand by Display Technology

12 Cost Structure and Pricing

13 Personal Viewer Company Profiles
13.1.1 22Moo International Pty Ltd
13.1.2 3001 AD
13.1.3 5DT Inc. (Fifth Dimension Technologies, Inc.)
13.1.4 Cybermind Interactive Nederland
13.1.5 DEOCOM Co., Ltd.
13.1.6 eMagin Corporation
13.1.7 GEOMC Co., Ltd. (Formerly Daeyang E&C)
13.1.8 Headplay Inc.
13.1.9 i-O Displays Systems, LLC
13.1.10 Lumus Ltd.
13.1.11 Microvision, Inc.
13.1.12 Mirage Innovations
13.1.13 Motion Research
13.1.14 Myvu Corporation
13.1.15 NVIS, Inc.
13.1.16 Oculon Optoelectronics Inc.
13.1.17 Rimax International Ltd.
13.1.18 Rockwell Collins - Optronics
13.1.19 Saab AB
13.1.20 Sage Technologies, Ltd
13.1.21 Sensics, Inc.
13.1.22 Shenzhen Oriscape Electronic Co., Ltd.
13.1.23 Shimadzu Corporation
13.1.24 Tek Gear
13.1.25 Trivisio Prototyping GmbH
13.1.26 Virtual Research Systems, Inc.
13.1.27 Vision Systems International, LLC
13.1.28 Vuzix (formerly Icuiti Corporation)

14 Personal Viewer System Basics
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Near-Eye Metrics
14.3 System Architecture
14.4 Colour
14.5 Spatial Colour Systems
14.6 Field-Sequential Colour (FSC) Systems
14.7 Near-Eye Value Chain

15 Types of Personal Viewers
15.1 Monocular - see-around
15.2 Monocular - see-through
15.3 Binocular - sleek
15.4 Binocular - immersive
15.5 Military helmet

16 Personal Viewer Markets
16.1 Military
16.2 Commercial
16.3 Consumer

17 Appendix A - Personal Video Viewer Price Point Analysis
17.1.1 Sleek Display Technologies
17.1.2 Bulky Technologies

18 Appendix B - Personal Viewer Success Factors
18.1.1 The Five Success Factors - The Five C's
18.1.2 Cost/Performance
18.1.3 Control Interface/Cabling
18.1.4 Comfort
18.1.5 Content
18.1.6 Channels and Marketing Promotion

19 Appendix C - Human Comfort Factors
19.1.1 Viewing comfort
19.1.2 Motion comfort
19.1.3 Wearing comfort
19.1.4 Self-image comfort

20 Appendix D - Consumer Use Model
20.1.1 Benefits of and Issues with Personal Viewers
20.1.2 Alternatives for Use of Personal Viewers
20.1.3 Benefits vs. Issues by Type of Use
20.1.4 Alternative Consumer Value Propositions

21 Appendix E- Methodology
22 References

Return to the PV 2008 report detail page

22Moo International Pty Ltd
3001 AD
5DT Inc. (Fifth Dimension Technologies, Inc.)
Cybermind Interactive Nederland
DEOCOM Co., Ltd.
eMagin Corporation
GEOMC Co., Ltd. (Formerly Daeyang E&C)
Headplay Inc.
Displays Systems, LLC
Lumus Ltd.
Microvision, Inc.
Mirage Innovations
Motion Research
Myvu Corporation
NVIS, Inc.
Oculon Optoelectronics Inc.
Rimax International Ltd.
Rockwell Collins - Optronics
Saab AB
Sage Technologies, Ltd
Sensics, Inc.
Shenzhen Oriscape Electronic Co., Ltd.
Shimadzu Corporation
Tek Gear
Trivisio Prototyping GmbH
Virtual Research Systems, Inc.
Vision Systems International, LLC
Vuzix (formerly Icuiti Corporation)

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