- Published: January 2010
2008-2013 Capital Equipment and Technology Report for the Hard Disk Drive Industry
- Published: May 2008
- Region: Global
- 177 Pages
- Coughlin Associates
Demand for traditional computer applications is growing but hard disk drives in mobile and consumer applications are experiencing the greatest growth of any market segment and will be in the majority of all hard disk drives by the next decade. This will result in over 100% growth in total drive unit shipments between 2007 and 2013. This increase in volume will drive capital equipment to sustain the manufacturing volume. Likewise the introduction of heat assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) and patterned media (DTR or BPM) will require purchase of new equipment and development of production processes by all manufacturers by 2010. All of these factors will cause unprecedented but controlled growth in the demand for production process equipment, production test equipment and metrology equipment.
This report will explore the drivers for new HDD demand growth and set expectations for what this growth will require in terms of production and process, production testing and metrology capital equipment. We will describe the changes in HDD technology and unit volume and what that will require in terms of production and process equipment. We will look at developments in production test and metrology driven by the need to minimize the impact of test on total drive and component cost as well as increasing drive yields and reliability.
Some highlights on the report methodology are:
- Accuracy of final data is about +/-15%
- Analysis is based on top-down (customer spending trends) and bottom-up (vendor sales trends) from interviews with knowledgeable people in the industry
- Data forming the basis of the model was collected from a combination of public and private sources both domestic and abroad
- We checked revenue/spending numbers with appropriate product pricing and volume calculations
- Future projections (through 2010) are based upon current trends and expected forthcoming developments (volume expansion and technology developments)
- We assume over 100% growth in disk drive volume (from about 501 M to 1.1 B) from 2007 to 2013
- We assume 262% growth in capital equipment spending from 2007 to 2013 (~15% growth from 2007 to 2008)
--Capital spending to meet new demand
--Capital spending to meet new technology requirements such as HAMR and DTR
--Capital spending to update facilities and processes
--Assume ~77% of HDD and component company total capital spending overall is on process equipment (rest on facilities, etc.)—balance on buildings and building infrastructure, etc.
The particular manufacturing spending/revenues categories discussed here are drives; head wafers/sliders/HGAs; as well as disks and disk substrates. The spending in these categories is further broken down into spending/revenue for production process equipment, spending/revenue for production testing equipment and spending/revenue for metrology equipment. Production and process equipment includes basic assembly and manufacturing tools including automation, contamination control and manufacturing operations.
Not included in production and process equipment spending is capital spending on building and basic facility expense such as DI water, gas lines, HVAC, etc. Production test equipment includes drive burn-in racks and testers, certifiers, contamination monitoring equipment as well as servo writers and equipment often classed as metrology equipment but which is used continuously or often on the production line. Metrology equipment refers to measurement equipment that is used less often on the production line, is used for failure analysis, gauging and standardization, less frequent AQL testing, etc.
We have identified in this report information from both captive and merchant test equipment suppliers. The distinction is important. Merchant suppliers are eager to garner more business from captive suppliers in order to grow their available market. However, captive suppliers in the past have felt that they are better able to tailor test solutions to specific requirements while controlling the technology and diminishing their reliance on outside suppliers. This make/buy decision continues to be a critical element affecting the fortunes of independent test equipment suppliers; however the trend is to use more outside suppliers.
This report is based upon recent interviews and analysis as well as historical data from prior reports on capital spending by the author. Capital spending reported here is estimated to be within about 15% accuracy of total spending by HDD companies, their component suppliers as well as sub-suppliers. In the course of obtaining the information contained in this report we have contacted or visited many test and process equipment companies, most of the disk drive manufacturers, and several head, media, and sub-components suppliers.
During our interviews we received information concerning forecasts, expected technology directions and future requirements. We wish to express our thanks to all who contributed their knowledge and foresight. In compiling this report we have not included all the detailed data we have gathered. As usual if you have any questions or require additional information please contact us. We are open to provide information readily available to us (with due regard for the confidentiality of our sources) or develop it for you on a project basis. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Component Shortages Averted for Now
Disk and Head Projections
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Projections by Application, Form Factor and Substrate
Quarterly Production Variations
Drive and Component Market Shares
TECHNOLOGY ISSUES AND DIRECTIONS
HDD TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Changes in Drive Bit Aspect Ratio
DISK DRIVE ASSEMBLY
Servo Track Writing
DISK DRIVE TESTING
DISK DRIVE COMPONENT AND SUBSYSTEM TESTING.
Interface Design and Test Issues
Servo Track Writers
Head Process Testing
Disk Certification and Media Surface Analysis
MARKET SEGMENTS AND TOP LEVEL GROWTH PROJECTIONS
2007 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING
TOP-LEVEL HEAD, DISK AND DRIVE FORECASTS
PRODUCTION TEST AND METROLOGY FORECASTS
PRODUCTION AND PROCESS EQUIPMENT MARKET
PROCESS CONTROL AND YIELDS
DISK DRIVE PROCESSESMAGNETIC HEAD ASSEMBLY
Head Stack Assembly
Media Substrate Manufacturing
Test and Certification
CLEANING AND CONTAMINATION CONTROL
PRODUCTION / PROCESS EQUIPMENT FORECASTS
MANUFACTURER'S PROFILES TEST & METROLOGY EQUIPMENT
MANUFACTURER’S PROFILES PRODUCTION / PROCESS EQUIPMENT
List of Tables
TABLE 2-1. HDD COMPANY REVENUE AND INDUSTRY CAPITAL
EQUIPMENT SPENDING ESTIMATES (2007 TO 2013).
TABLE 3-1. AVERAGE DISK AND HEAD PER DRIVE ESTIMATES TO 2013.
TABLE 3-2. HDD QUARTERLY SHIPMENT CHANGES (SEAGATE, WESTERN
DIGITAL AND HGST).
TABLE 3-3. 2005 MARKET SHARE PERCENTAGE BY APPLICATION.
TABLE 3-4. 2007 MARKET SHARE PERCENTAGE BY HDD FORM FACTOR.
TABLE 3-5. 2007 3.5-INCH ATA HDD BOM AND LABOR COST ESTIMATES (1- HEAD AND 1-DISK).
TABLE 5-1. 2005 ASSIGNMENT OF EQUIPMENT INTO CATEGORIES.
TABLE 5-2. INDEPENDENT TEST AND METROLOGY EQUIPMENT
COMPANIES AND CATEGORIES.
TABLE 5-1. HDD COMPANY REVENUE AND INDUSTRY CAPITAL
EQUIPMENT SPENDING ESTIMATES (2007 TO 2013).
TABLE 5-2. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CAPITAL EQUIPMENT
SPENDING GROWTH AND SPENDING PER DRIVE (PROD. TEST, PROCESS
AND METROLOGY ARE IN $M, #DRIVES IS IN MILLIONS AND LAST COLUMN IS $/DRIVE).
TABLE 6-1. PRODUCTION TEST EQUIPMENT AVERAGE UNIT PRICE IN 2007 (FOR REVENUE ESTIMATES)
TABLE 6-2. DRIVE AND MEDIA SERVO WRITER ESTIMATES
TABLE 6-3. BURN-IN SLOT ESTIMATES.
TABLE 6-4. CERTIFIER/BURNISHER STATION ESTIMATES.
TABLE 6-5. PRODUCTION TEST REVENUE ESTIMATES.
TABLE 6-6. METROLOGY EQUIPMENT PRICE RANGES AND AVERAGE
TABLE 6-7. METROLOGY EQUIPMENT REVENUE FORECAST ($M).
TABLE 6-1. PRODUCTION/PROCESS EQUIPMENT COMPANY SUMMARY BY DRIVE AND COMPONENTS.
TABLE 7-2. PRODUCTION/PROCESS EQUIPMENT SUMMARY FOR
MAGNETIC HEAD MANUFACTURING.
TABLE 7-3. GMR HEAD PROCESS AND EQUIPMENT VENDORS.
TABLE 7-4. GMR HEAD PROCESS MEASUREMENTS.
TABLE 7-5. DISK MEASUREMENT AND TEST EQUIPMENT VENDORS.
TABLE 7-6. DISK AND DISK COMPONENT PRODUCTION AND PROCESS
EQUIPMENT VENDORS AND THEIR MARKET SEGMENTS.
TABLE 8-1. WAFER PROCESS AND PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT
TABLE 8-2. SLIDER AND HGA PROCESS AND PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT
TABLE 8-3. DISK PROCESS AND PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT
TABLE 8-4. HEAD AND DISK PROCESS AND PRODUCTION AND PROCESS
EQUIPMENT AVERAGE PRICE AND UNIT ESTIMATES.
TABLE 8-5. HEAD, DISK AND DISK DRIVE PROCESS AND PRODUCTION
EQUIPMENT REVENUE PROJECTIONS.
List of Figures
FIGURE 2-1. HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR HDD UNIT GROWTH TO
2013 PER MARKET SEGMENT.
FIGURE 2-2. BANDED HDD UNIT VOLUME ESTIMATES.
FIGURE 2-3. AVERAGE DRIVE PRICE TREND FOR SEAGATE (MAXTOR),
WESTERN DIGITAL AND HITACHI (Q4 ’98 TO Q4 ’07).
FIGURE 2-4. WW DISK PRODUCTION CAPACITY ESTIMATES VS DEMAND
ESTIMATES (2000 THROUGH 2008E).
FIGURE 2-5. HDD QUARTERLY PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS AND PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS.
FIGURE 2-6. COMPARISON OF PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT TRENDS VS
AREAL DENSITY GROWTH RATES.
FIGURE 2-7. HDD AREAL DENSITY GROWTH HISTORY.
FIGURE 2-8. HDD TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION WITH UNIT VOLUME
FIGURE 2-9. HDD TESTING METROLOGY ROADMAP WITH UNIT VOLUME
FIGURE 2-10. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING VS. NUMBER OF HARD
DISK DRIVES TRENDS.
FIGURE 2-11. 2007 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BREAKDOWN BY
TYPE OF EQUIPMENT (TOTAL SPENDING IN 2007 ~$2.2 B).
FIGURE 2-12. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING ESTIMATES FROM 1999
FIGURE 2-13. 2007 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING FOR HEADS MEDIA
FIGURE 2-14. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS BY ALL TRACKED CATEGORIES.
FIGURE 3-1. WW DISK PRODUCTION CAPACITY ESTIMATES VS DEMAND
ESTIMATES (1999 THROUGH 2008E) .
FIGURE 3-2. WW DISK PRODUCTION CAPACITY ESTIMATES VS DEMAND
ESTIMATES (1999 THROUGH 2008E).
FIGURE 3-3. ESTIMATES OF DRIVE, HEADS AND DISKS TO 2013.
FIGURE 3-4. HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR HDD UNIT GROWTH TO
2013 PER MARKET SEGMENT.
FIGURE 3-5. HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR HDD UNIT GROWTH TO
2013 PER DRIVE FORM FACTOR.
FIGURE 3-6. BANDED HDD VOLUME PROJECTIONS TO 2013.
FIGURE 3-7. HDD SHIPMENT QUARTERLY SEASONALITY (UNITS IN
FIGURE 3-8. HDD QUARTERLY SHIPMENTS (2006 AND 2007 HISTORICAL,
FIGURE 3-9. HEAD QUARTERLY SHIPMENTS (2006 AND 2007 HISTORICAL,
FIGURE 3-10. DISK QUARTERLY SHIPMENTS (2006 AND 2007 HISTORICAL,
FIGURE 3-11. SUBSTRATE QUARTERLY DEMAND (2006 AND 2007
HISTORICAL, 2008-2011 PROJECTIONS).
FIGURE 3-12. 2007 TOTAL HDD MARKET SHARE.
FIGURE 3-13. Q4 2007 TOTAL DISK MARKET SHARE.
FIGURE 3-14. Q1 2007 TOTAL HEAD MARKET SHARE.
FIGURE 3-15. AVERAGE DRIVE PRICE TREND FOR SEAGATE, WESTERN
DIGITAL AND HGST (Q4 ’98 TO Q4 ’07).
FIGURE 3-16. AVERAGE $/GB FOR VARIOUS TYPES OF HDDS.
FIGURE 3-17. ENTERPRISE HDD ACCESS/SEEK TIME PERFORMANCE
FIGURE 3-18. MAGNETIC HARD DISK DRIVE INTERNAL DATA RATE.
FIGURE 3-19. INDUSTRY HDD MTBF SPECIFICATIONS.
FIGURE 3-20. MARKET HGA PRICING TRENDS VS. TECHNOLOGY AND
AVERAGE HEAD PRICING.
FIGURE 3-21. MARKET DISK PRICING TRENDS VS. TECHNOLOGY AND
AVERAGE MEDIA PRICING.
FIGURE 4-1. HDD QUARTERLY PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS AND PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS.
FIGURE 4-2. HDD QUARTERLY PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS AND PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS.
FIGURE 4-3. COMPARISON OF PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT TRENDS VS.
AREAL DENSITY GROWTH RATES
FIGURE 4-4. HDD TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP WITH UNIT VOLUME GROWTH.
FIGURE 4-5. HDD TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP WITH AREAL DENSITY
FIGURE 4-6. HDD TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP WITH AREAL DENSITY
FIGURE 4-7. LITHOGRAPHY ROADMAP SHOWING HDD HEAD AND BPM
TRENDS VS. ITRS SEMICONDUCTOR REQUIREMENTS.
FIGURE 4-8. NANOIMPRINTING MASTER/WORKING COPY PRODUCTION
FIGURE 4-9. TRENDS IN HEAD WAFER DIAMETERS.
FIGURE 4-10. HDD SPACING AND AREAL DENSITY RELATIONSHIP.
FIGURE 4-11. PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT OF MAGNETIC SPACING
FIGURE 4-12. HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING SCHEMATIC.
FIGURE 4-13. HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING HEAD PROCESS
FIGURE 4-14. COMPARISON OF CURRENT ALUMINUM SUBSTRATE AND
LN3 SUBSTRATE DISK PRODUCTION PROCESSES .
FIGURE 4-15. INCREASING COMPLEXITY OF MAGNETIC RECORDING
FIGURE 4-16. VISUALIZATION OF PERPENDICULAR RECORDING (SOURCE:
FIGURE 4-17. DISCRETE TRACK RECORDING MEDIA AND BIT PATTERN
MEDIA POSSIBLE PRODUCTION PROCESS.
FIGURE 4-18. DISK MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION WORKFLOW
CHANGES WITH DTR AND BPM.
FIGURE 4-19. INTEVAC PATTERNED MEDIA WORKFLOW.
FIGURE 4-20. PROJECTED ADOPTION RATE FOR DISCRETE TRACK
FIGURE 4-21. PROJECTED SHIPPING DISKS FOR DTR AND NON-DTR
FIGURE 4-22. AREAL DENSITY AND DISK COERCIVITY EVOLUTION.
FIGURE 4-23. RELATIONSHIP OF TRACK WIDTH TO BIT LENGTH.
FIGURE 4-24. DEVELOPMENT OF BAR WITH TIME.
FIGURE 4-25. CHANGES IN HDD ASSEMBLY WORKFLOW.
FIGURE 4-26. MEI/MKE MAGNETIC SERVO PRINTING TECHNIQUE.
FIGURE 4-27. SERVO WRITING PROJECTIONS (FROM XYRATEX).
FIGURE 4-28. XYRATEX XCALIBRE DRIVE TEST AND BURN-IN SOLUTION.
FIGURE 4-29. XYRATEX CONVENTIONAL DRIVE SERVER WRITER
FIGURE 4-30. ISI WAFER QUASI-STATIC TESTER.
FIGURE 4-31. ISI HGA/HSA/HDA QUASI-STATIC TESTER.
FIGURE 4-32. KLA-TENCOR D6 FLYING HEIGHT TESTER.
FIGURE 4-33. GUZIK RWA-2004 READ WRITE ANALYZER AND V2002 SPIN
FIGURE 4-34. CHANGES MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE DEFECT SIZE.
FIGURE 4-35. THÔT 42000 OPTICAL INSPECTION TOOL.
FIGURE 4-36. KLA-TENCOR CANDELA 6120 OPTICAL INSPECTION TOOL.
Analysis of HDD and HDD component company capital spending driven by unit growth and technology changes. PDF document and powerpoint of figures and tables
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