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Analysis of Chlor-alkali Industry in China 2008
China Market Report, Aug 2008, Pages: 24
In 2006 the global production capacity of PVC was around 40.5 million tons and the output was around 33 million tons. Europe, North America and China are the three major producers of PVC, their production capacity accounts for 27 per cent, 24 per cent and 24 per cent of the total respectively. In terms of the demand, the United States accounts for 25 per cent of the global PVC demands, but, its demands of PVC may reduce in terms of the subprime crisis; but, on the other hand, Asia-Pacific region and emerging market accounting for 58 per cent of the global market share and their demand would increase due to the urbanization.
The PVC anti-dumping in 2003 and higher crude oil prices led to the high profit of calcium carbide process of PVC, which drove the rapid expansion of China’s calcium carbide process of PVC production capacity. In 2003, The output of domestic PVC was 4.24 million tons, the apparent consumption was 6.42 million tons, self-sufficiency rate was 66.04 per cent; but, by 2007, the output of domestic PVC reached 9.49 million tons, the four years compound annual growth rate reached 22.31 per cent, far more than the same period of the 11.13 per cent of the compound annual growth rate of apparent consumption.
Benefiting from the comprehensive construction of urbanization, China's PVC demand will keep a high growth in the next two years; in terms of the supply, the additional extra production capacity of PVC in 2008 and 2009 is expected be 2.5 million tons and 2 million tons respectively, is far more than the 1 million tons additional extra demand, therefore, predicting that by 2009, the domestic output will exceed demand. But, however, due to the price advantage of China's calcium carbide process of PVC, thus, export will be one of the measures to absorb the surplus production capacity of PVC in the future; meanwhile, the PVC industry will also face re-shuffling.
In the early 2008, the State Development and Reform Commission of China published a list of backward production capacity of calcium carbide and coking industry for the second time, these production capacity will be out of market, the total number of calcium carbide enterprises is 20 and 221,400 tons production capacity, added the first time list, the total production capacity is 795,600 tons. After the backward production capacity of calcium carbide out of the market, the price of calcium carbide will be increased, which will increases the cost as well, but, the impact of the rising cost of the company who has its own production line of calcium carbide will be relatively small.
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