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Poland Food and Drink Report Q4 2008


Description: BMI's Poland Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's food and drink industry.

In recent months, local press reports revealed that Polish food retailers are struggling to find employees and are currently facing a shortage of around 10,000 workers. The situation, arising from the fact that European Union (EU) membership has allowed Polish workers to seek employment abroad, has resulted in a drive to attract foreign staff, with Ukraine being the most likely target country. Nevertheless, domestic food and beverage consumption growth is expected to remain strong as a tightening labour market, higher wage growth and higher per capita wealth spurs household buying.

In fact, in BMI’s Business Environment Ranking for Q408, Poland is found in joint fourth place, alongside the much larger market of Russia, having risen from sixth place in the previous quarter. Key attractions of the Polish food and drinks market include the strong export segment, supported by a large agricultural sector, and strong forecast growth of its food and beverages consumption. Poland is also judged as having an attractive business environment, although recent reports by mass grocery retail (MGR) players that have attempted to expand in Poland suggest that bureaucratic, logistical and other difficulties continue to represent barriers to entry, with German Tengelmann actually deciding to leave the country.

Nevertheless, in June 2008, German retailer Rewe Group announced major expansion plans for the Polish market, with the aim of doubling the number of its Billa supermarkets and also increasing the number of its Selgros cash & carry stores. Additionally, the company is set to launch an environmental
programme (Eko-Billa) in a bid to address consumers’ environmental concerns. Other MGR players are aiming to capitalise on this shift in consumer preferences, with German Metro Group announcing an introduction of an organic food range to its Makro Cash & Carry and Real chains in Poland, in collaboration with domestic organic food producer Ekomazovia.

Generally speaking, opportunities in both food and drink markets continue to attract much foreign interest. In August 2008, leading French malt producer Malteurop revealed that it is set to build three new factories in Europe, one of which will be located in Poland. The development is part of Malteurop‘s
recent acquisition of leading US-based ADM Malting malt producer, which has propelled the French company into the top spot as the leading global malt supplier. The decision to locate some of its production in Poland is in part due to low production and labour costs in the country. Similarly, ingredients group Danisco recently completed a major expansion of a kefir culture plant in Poland, in response to rising demand for the fermented product as a functional ingredient across the whole of Europe. Finally, French dairy conglomerate Lactalis moved to acquire Polish yoghurt producer Obory, thus capitalising on the performance of the well-known Obory brand. Lactalis also recently purchased Romanian dairy company LaDorna, indicating its continued interest in the emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).


Contents: Executive Summary
Business Environment
Central and Eastern Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Poland’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
SWOT Analysis

Food And Drink
Poland Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Mass Grocery Retail
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland – Economic Activity

Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: Poland Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Poland Confectionery Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Poland Canned Foods Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Poland Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Meat Processing Industry
Dairy Industry

Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Drinks indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecast
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks indicators – Historical Data & Forecast
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Hot Drinks
Soft Drinks

Agriculture At A Glance
Table: Poland Organic Agricultural Data
Table Poland – Private Farms' Share Of Agricultural Output (as % of Total)
Agricultural Commodity Price

Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview

Main MGR Players
Table: Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of The Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Value Of Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2007
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players – Poland's Food & Drink Sector 2007 Estimates
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In Poland’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector

Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Polska
Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins)
Food
Nestlé Polska
Drink
Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC)
Carlsberg Polska
Hoop

Deep US Recession Scenario
Global Scenario
Table: World GDP Growth
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth, and Private Consumption Growth
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth
Table: China GDP Growth
Table: Mexico GDP Growth
Table: Africa GDP Growth
CEE Food & Drink Scenario
Table: Impact Of Deep Us Recession On Total Food Consumption (US$Bn) In Selected CEE Markets - Cumulative US$ Impact Over 5yr Forecast Period

Appendix
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing


Companies Mentioned Nesle Polska Carlsberg Polska


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