Emerging Markets Mobile

Tariff Consultancy, October 2008, Pages: 160

The aim of the report is to provide as complete an overview of the Emerging Mobile Markets around the world. Rather than focus on the largest markets – frequently bracketed as Brazil, India and China – our intention in this survey is also to include and identify the next tier of the fastest growing mobile markets around the world, not just the countries with the largest population base.

This report is also focussed on individual mobile operators rather than the market as a whole, as it seeks to explain why a particular mobile operator invests in a sector and also how a provider is able to produce growth from a market that others do not. In the Table of contents box below we provide a list of the 34 countries that are surveyed in this report.

Emerging Markets Mobile - Table of Contents
Methodology
Acknowledgements
A list of Tables and Charts
Executive Summary

Chapter I: Overview - The importance of Emerging Markets for the mobile operator

Introduction
Definition of an Emerging Market
Criteria for an Emerging Market
New investments in the Emerging Markets
Key Point Summary

Chapter II: Emerging Mobile Markets Europe, Russia & CEE region, Turkey

Introduction – The main Emerging Markets
European investments – the challenge of market maturity
Country survey
Central & Eastern Europe – main trends
The Baltic States – main trends
Russia and the CIS – main trends
Russia
Ukraine
Turkey – main trends
Other investments in Europe
Case study – Tele2 invest in the Baltic States & Russia
Key Point Summary

Chapter III: Emerging Mobile Markets Africa
Introduction
Country survey
- Egypt
- Ghana
- Kenya
- Libya
- Morocco
- Nigeria
Case study – Orange & Vodafone invest in Africa
Key Point Summary

Chapter IV: Emerging Mobile Markets Middle East & Asia
Introduction
Country survey
- Afghanistan
- Bangladesh
- Iran
- Iraq
- Pakistan
- Key Point Summary

Chapter V: Emerging Mobile Markets India
Introduction
Country survey – India
Case study – Bharti Airtel consolidates market share leadership in India
Key Point Summary

Chapter VI: Emerging Mobile Markets Asia
Introduction
Country survey
- Cambodia
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Philippines
- Sri Lanka
- Thailand
- Vietnam
Case study – SingTel looks for overseas expansion
Key Point Summary

Chapter VII: Emerging Mobile Markets China
Introduction
Country survey – China
Case study – China Mobile invests in Pakistan
Key Point Summary

Chapter VIII: Emerging Mobile Markets Latin America
Introduction
Country survey
- Argentina
- Chile
- Colombia
- Ecuador
- Mexico
- Peru
- Venezuela
Case study – America Movil consolidates its position in Latin America
Key Point Summary

Chapter IX: Emerging Mobile Markets Brazil
Introduction
Country survey – Brazil
Case study – A comparison of contrasting experiences, TIM and Telefonica in Brazil
Key Point Summary

Chapter X: Mobile operator case studies
Introduction
Mobile operator approaches to Emerging Markets
Mobile operator profiles
- America Movil
- Orange
- Tele2
- Vodafone Group
- T-Mobile
- TeliaSonera
- Telenor
- Telefonica
- Vivendi & Maroc Telecom Group
- NTT DoCoMo
- Zain Corporation
- MTN Group
- Orascom Telecom
Key Point Summary

Chapter XI – Conclusions
Introduction
New investments
The major emerging markets
Subscriber growth forecast 2008 to 2013
Investment potential
Risks and benefits
Key Point Summary

Appendices
Appendix One: A glossary of terms used in this report
Appendix Two: Currency Converter Table

List of Tables & Charts
Table 1: Lithuania: key statistics
Table 2: Latvia: key statistics
Table 3: Estonia key statistics
Table 4: Mobile operators in Lithuania
Table 5: Mobile operators in Latvia
Table 6: Mobile operators in Estonia
Table 7: Russia key statistics
Table 8: Mobile operators in Russia
Table 9: VimpelCom CIS subscriber growth
Table 10: VimpelCom CIS ARPU trends
Table 11: MTS CIS subscriber growth
Table 12: Ukraine key statistics
Table 13: Mobile operators in Ukraine
Table 14: Turkey key statistics
Table 15: Mobile operators in Turkey
Table 16: Egypt key statistics
Table 17: Mobile operators in Egypt
Table 18: Ghana key statistics
Table 19: Mobile operators in Ghana
Table 20: Kenyakey statistics
Table 21: Mobile operators in Kenya
Table 22: Libya key statistics
Table 23: Mobile operators in Libya
Table 24: Moroccokey statistics
Table 25: Mobile operators in Morocco
Table 26: Nigeria key statistics
Table 27: Mobile operators in Nigeria
Table 28: Afghanistan key statistics
Table 29: Mobile operators in Afghanistan
Table 30: Bangladesh key statistics
Table 31: Mobile operators in Bangladesh
Table 32: Iran key statistics
Table 33: Mobile operators in Iran
Table 34: Iraq key statistics
Table 35: Mobile operators in Iraq
Table 36: Pakistan ey statistics
Table 37: Mobile operators in Pakistan
Table 38: Telenor Pakistan PERSONA post paid tariff structure
Table 39: New mobile investment in the Middle Eastern Gulf States
Table 40: Overseas mobile investment by Etisalat
Table 41: India key statistics
Table 42: Mobile operators in India
Table 43: Bharti Airtel Mobile Campus pricing
Table 44: Cambodia key statistics
Table 45: Mobile operators in Cambodia
Table 46: Cellcard 3G tariff structure in Cambodia
Table 47: Indonesia key statistics
Table 48: Mobile operators in Indonesia
Table 49: Malaysia key statistics
Table 50: Mobile operators in Malaysia
Table 51: Philippines key statistics
Table 52: Mobile operators in the Philippines
Table 53: Smart & TNT subscriber growth trends
Table 54: Sri Lanka key statistics
Table 55: Mobile operators in Sri Lanka
Table 56: Thailand key statistics
Table 57: Mobile operators in Thailand
Table 58: Vietnam key statistics
Table 59: Mobile operators in Vietnam
Table 60: SingTel’s investments in emerging mobile markets
Table 61: China key statistics
Table 62: Mobile operators in China
Table 63: Argentina key statistics
Table 64: Mobile operators in Argentina
Table 65: Telefonica Argentina (Movistar) 3.5G tariff structure
Table 66: Chile key statistics
Table 67: Mobile operators in Chile
Table 68: Colombia key statistics
Table 69: Mobile operators in Colombia
Table 70: Dominican Republic key statistics
Table 71: Mobile operators in the Dominican Republic
Table 72: Orange Flex Joven tariff package
Table 73: Ecuador key statistics
Table 74: Mobile operators in Ecuador
Table 75: Porta Plan Idea Jovenes tariff structure
Table 76: Mexico key statistics
Table 77: Mobile operators in Mexico
Table 78: Peru key statistics
Table 79: Mobile operators in Peru
Table 80: Claro Post Paid Tariff Structure Plan Structure
Table 81: Venezuela key statistics
Table 82: Mobile operators in Venezuela
Table 83: Movil Venezeula Tariff Plan
Table 84: Brazil key statistics
Table 85: Mobile operators in Brazil
Table 86: America Movil mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 87: HTIL mobile subscribers in emerging markets
Table 88: Orange mobile subscribers in emerging markets
Table 89: Millicom (MIC) mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 90: SingTel mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 91: Tele2 mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 92: Vodafone mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 93: T-Mobile mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 94: TM International mobile subscribers in emerging markets
Table 95: TeliaSonera mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 96: Telenor mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 97: Telefonica mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 98: NTT DoCoMo international mobile investments
Table 99: Zain Corporation selected mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 100: MTN Group selected mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 101: Orascom Telecom mobile investments in emerging markets
Table 102: New mobile emerging market investments announced since the start of 2008
Table 103: Subscriber growth for the Top 15 mobile markets from 2008 to 2013

Charts & Diagrams
Chart 1: Characteristics of an Emerging Market
Chart 2: Subscriber growth forecast, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Russia, Ukraine & Turkey: 2008 to 2013
Chart 3: Nigerian mobile operators subscriber market share
Chart 4: Subscriber growth forecast, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Morocco & Nigeria : 2008 to 2013
Chart 5: Afghan mobile operators subscriber market share
Chart 6: Pakistan mobile operators subscriber market share
Chart 7: Subscriber growth forecast, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Iraq & Pakistan : 2008 to 2013
Chart 8: Indian mobile operators subscriber market share
Chart 9: Subscriber growth forecast, India : 2008 to 2013
Chart 10: Indonesian mobile operators subscriber market share
Chart 11: Subscriber growth forecast, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam 2008 to 2013
Chart 12: Subscriber growth forecast, China 2008 to 2013
Chart 13: Subscriber growth forecast, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru & Venezeula
Chart 14: Subscriber growth forecast, Brazil 2008 to 2013
Chart 15: Telenor mobile operator ARPU trends
Chart 16: Subscriber growth forecast, Top 15 countries 2008 to 2013
Chart 17: Forecast CAGR mobile subscriber growth (per cent) by country 2008 to 2013
Chart 18: Forecast mobile penetration rates in the 34 countries surveyed 2008 to 2013

Investing in emerging markets has now become fashionable. But the valuations of emerging market mobile operators continue to rise. The cost of new mobile licences is also increasing. For new mobile operators entering these markets returns may also be difficult due to the cost of providing national coverage and declining ARPU as low income users are targeted. The cost of market entry indicates that a large well financed operator is best placed to invest in the emerging market.

The prospects for emerging markets look good. But the window of opportunity for successful investment may be starting to close as mobile penetration rates in the major markets are approaching maturity.

However, those markets with relatively low current mobile penetration rates coupled with high economic growth have the potential to outperform for those mobile operators who can invest at an early stage over the next five year period.

Our forecast indicates that there will be 10 countries in our survey (out of 34) that will achieve the highest growth in subscribers with annual growth rates of above 30% over the next five years. In order of forecast Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) they are:

- Afghanistan
- Iraq
- Cambodia
- Indonesia
- India
- Sri Lanka
- Kenya
- Iran
- Ghana
- Vietnam

There are a number of countries which will achieve growth rates of 20% to 30% over the period including Libya, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Chile, Ecuador and Morocco.

All three of the Baltic States (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia) and also Russia are at the bottom of the forecast growth league over the next five years as the market has matured. Additionally subscriber growth in Pakistan and China will also slow over the period.

Over the next five years we forecast that average mobile penetration rates across the 34 countries surveyed will more than double from 46% (in 2008) to 95% (in 2013). The total number of mobile subscribers will also more than double over the period, from just over 2.1 billion to 4.3 billion users. The report comes with a mobile subscriber forecasts from 2008 to 2013.

We forecast that the countries with the highest mobile penetration rates by 2013 will include Iraq, the Ukraine, Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey. The report provides the rankig of the top ten countries by the highest mobile penetration rate in 2013.

- America Movil
- MTN Group
- NTT DoCoMo
- Orange
- Orascom Telecom
- Tele2
- Telefonica
- Telenor
- TeliaSonera
- T-Mobile
- Vivendi & Maroc Telecom Group
- Vodafone Group
- Zain Corporation

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