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Agriculture to power economic growth in 2008
Concorde Capital, Sep 2008, Pages: 13
July recorded the highest real GDP growth in Ukraine since the beginning of the year. Real GDP grew 7.3% yoy in July (6.5% yoy in 7M08), propelled by a jump in agricultural output of 10.8% yoy in 7M08. The bountiful harvest pushed agriculture to offset slowing industrial growth, which ebbed to 7.3% yoy in 7M08.
Growth in fixed capital investments decreased to xx% yoy in 1H08. Rising prices and rigid lending suppressed investment inflows into fixed capital, particularly in the processing sector, which poses concerns of industrial output growth slackening in the mid-term.
A bounteous harvest brought Ukraine its first deflationary month since 2006. In July, the State Statistics Committee reported the first month-on-month deflation since April 2006. A seasonal increase in the supply of food products induced a xx% mom fall in food prices. We forecast that inflation will downshift through yearend to xx% yoy in December 2008.
C/A deficit squeezed in 7M08 comparing to 1Q08, egged on by a hike in global steel prices. We expect that in the next quarter grain exports will be among the main drivers further narrowing the C/A deficit.
The Verkhovna Rada is unlikely to amend the state budget this year, Minister of Finance Viktor Pynzenyk said in a conference call on August 14. If planned amendments to the budget increasing social expenditures are rejected or not brought up for vote at all, this will deliver inflation from additional upward pressure on the consumption side.
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