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Agriculture to power economic growth in 2008


Description: July recorded the highest real GDP growth in Ukraine since the beginning of the year. Real GDP grew 7.3% yoy in July (6.5% yoy in 7M08), propelled by a jump in agricultural output of 10.8% yoy in 7M08. The bountiful harvest pushed agriculture to offset slowing industrial growth, which ebbed to 7.3% yoy in 7M08.


Growth in fixed capital investments decreased to xx% yoy in 1H08. Rising prices and rigid lending suppressed investment inflows into fixed capital, particularly in the processing sector, which poses concerns of industrial output growth slackening in the mid-term.


A bounteous harvest brought Ukraine its first deflationary month since 2006. In July, the State Statistics Committee reported the first month-on-month deflation since April 2006. A seasonal increase in the supply of food products induced a xx% mom fall in food prices. We forecast that inflation will downshift through yearend to xx% yoy in December 2008.


C/A deficit squeezed in 7M08 comparing to 1Q08, egged on by a hike in global steel prices. We expect that in the next quarter grain exports will be among the main drivers further narrowing the C/A deficit.


The Verkhovna Rada is unlikely to amend the state budget this year, Minister of Finance Viktor Pynzenyk said in a conference call on August 14. If planned amendments to the budget increasing social expenditures are rejected or not brought up for vote at all, this will deliver inflation from additional upward pressure on the consumption side.


Contents: Economic growth
Agriculture pushes GDP upward
GDP growth by sector - table
Agricultural output, chg yoy - chart
Contribution to real GDP growth by sectors - chart
Investment in fixed capital by sector in 1H08 - table

Prices
First deflation in two years
Key inflation indicators, July 2008 - table
CPI growth is pulled down by food prices - chart
Historical natural gas price increases for households- - chart

Monetary policy
NBUs sterilizing actions butted interest rates up
NBU interventions at record high since Nov-05 - chart
Liquidity regulation by the NBU in 2008 - chart
Overnight rates, flat in July, increased in August after the NBUs sterilizing measures - chart
Monetary aggregates - table

Currency exchange
UAH/USD 2008 yearend forecast
Exchange rates, as of August 28 - table
UAH/USD exchange rates - chart
Demand for foreign currency prevails over demand for UAH in last four months of a year - chart
Shares of currencies in Ukraine’s foreign trade - chart

External activity
Grain exporters pick up the baton from steel producers
Steel square billet, $/mt, FOB, Black sea - chart
Ukrainian grain exports, mln mt - chart
Oil prices (URALS), USD/bbl - chart

Budget
Rada amends budget to compensate for flood damage
Consolidated budget execution, 1H08 - table
Surplus in 1H does not mean surplus in a full year - chart

Macro monitor
GDP by consumption in 1Q08, USD bln - chart
GDP by sector in 1Q08
GDP growth and GDP per capita
Real GDP & industrial output, % yoy
Industrial output growth by sector, % yoy
Construction, retail, banking assets, % yoy
Inflation, % yoy
Real disposable income and average salary
Consolidated budget execution, UAH bln
External trade, USD bln
External trade in merchandise, 6M08
External debt
FX reserves & external public debt, USD bln
Money supply structure, UAH bln
Interbank exchange rate
Ukrainian macro indicators yearly - table
Ukrainian macro indicators quarterly- table
Ukrainian macro indicators monthly - table
International comparison - table




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