The 2009-2014 World Outlook for Manufacturing Electronic Fixed and Variable Capacitors and Condensers

WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.? The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability). The latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a country market. For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand. As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand. THE METHODOLOGY In order to estimate the latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question. Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant. Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences). Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers. Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets). The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany. Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all countries and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place). Given this caveat, this study covers “manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). For a complete definition of manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers, please refer to the Web site at http://www.icongrouponline.com/codes/NAICS.html. The NAICS code for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers is 334414. It is for this definition of manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers” is specifically defined as follows: 334414 This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers.  3344140 CAPACITORS FOR ELECTRONIC CIRCUITRY  33441400 Capacitors for electronic circuitry  3344140000 Capacitors for electronic circuitry  33441401 Capacitors for electronic circuitry  3344140100 Capacitors for electronic circuitry  3344140103 Capacitors, fixed, paper, plastic (film), metalized, and dual (film/paper) dielectric, AC types, less than 300 volts  3344140106 Capacitors, fixed, paper, plastic (film), metalized, and dual (film/paper) dielectric, AC types, 300 to 599 volts  3344140109 Capacitors, fixed, paper, plastic (film), metalized, and dual (film/paper) dielectric, AC types, 600 to 999 volts  3344140112 Capacitors, fixed, paper, plastic (film), metalized, and dual (film/paper) dielectric, AC types, 1000 volts or over  33441402 Fixed Dc capacitors  3344140215 Dc capacitors, reactive power handling capacity of 0.5 KVAR or less, axial lead  3344140218 Dc capacitors, reactive power handling capacity of 0.5 KVAR or less, radial lead  3344140221 Dc capacitors, reactive power handling capacity of 0.5 KVAR or less, chips and other leaded devices  33441403 Tantalum electrolytic capacitors  3344140324 Metal case tantalum electrolytic capacitors  3344140327 Dipped tantalum electrolytic capacitors  3344140330 Tantalum electrolytic capacitor chips  3344140333 All other leaded tantalum electrolytic capacitors  33441404 Aluminum electrolytic capacitors  3344140436 Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 18mm to 35mm  3344140439 Aluminum electrolytic capacitors 35mm to 51mm  3344140442 Aluminum electrolytic capacitors over 51mm  3344140445 Ac motor start aluminum electrolytic capacitors  33441405 Ceramic dielectric capacitors  3344140548 Ceramic dielectric, single layer capacitors, chips  3344140551 Ceramic dielectric, multilayer capacitors, axial leads  3344140554 Ceramic dielectric, single layer capacitors, axial and radial  3344140557 Ceramic dielectric, multilayer capacitors, radial leads  3344140560 Ceramic dielectric, multilayer capacitors, chips  33441406 All other fixed capacitors  3344140663 All other fixed capacitors, mica dielectric  3344140666 All other fixed capacitors  33441407 Variable capacitors  3344140769 Variable capacitors; mica, ceramic, or glass dielectric  3344140772 All other variable capacitors  33441408 Parts of capacitors  3344140875 Parts of capacitors  33441411 Capacitors for electronic circuitry  334414M Miscellaneous receipts  334414P Primary products  334414S Secondary products  334414SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts   Furthermore, the definition of NAICS code 334414 includes the following: Capacitors, electronic, fixed and variable, manufacturing Condensers, electronic, manufacturing. Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing Based on the aggregate view of manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample of countries from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis. Step 3. Filling in Missing Values In some cases, data are available for countries on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data from a country may be available for only one year. From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national income. Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), countries which have missing data for any given year, are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that country. Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand in additional countries is estimated using a “varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model”. Simply stated, the effect of income on latent demand is assumed to be constant across countries unless there is empirical evidence to suggest that this effect varies (i.e., . the slope of the income effect is not necessarily same for all countries). This assumption applies across countries along the aggregate consumption function, but also over time (i.e., not all countries are perceived to have the same income growth prospects over time and this effect can vary from country to country as well). Another way of looking at this is to say that latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers is more likely to be similar across countries that have similar characteristics in terms of economic development (i.e., African countries will have similar latent demand structures controlling for the income variation across the pool of African countries). This approach is useful across countries for which some notion of non-linearity exists in the aggregate cross-country consumption function. For some categories, however, the reader must realize that the numbers will reflect a country’s contribution to global latent demand and may never be realized in the form of local sales. For certain country-category combinations this will result in what at first glance will be odd results. For example, the latent demand for the category “space vehicles” will exist for “Togo” even though they have no space program. The assumption is that if the economies in these countries did not exist, the world aggregate for these categories would be lower. The share attributed to these countries is based on a proportion of their income (however small) being used to consume the category in question (i.e., perhaps via resellers). Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation Nonlinearities are assumed in cases where filtered data exist along the aggregate consumption function. Because the world consists of more than 200 countries, there will always be those countries, especially toward the bottom of the consumption function, where non-linear estimation is simply not possible. For these countries, equilibrium latent demand is assumed to be perfectly parametric and not a function of wealth (i.e., a country’s stock of income), but a function of current income (a country’s flow of income). In the long run, if a country has no current income, the latent demand for manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers is assumed to approach zero. The assumption is that wealth stocks fall rapidly to zero if flow income falls to zero (i.e., countries which earn low levels of income will not use their savings, in the long run, to demand manufacturing electronic fixed and variable capacitors and condensers). In a graphical sense, for low income countries, latent demand approaches zero in a parametric linear fashion with a zero-zero intercept. In this stage of the estimation procedure, low-income countries are assumed to have a latent demand proportional to their income, based on the country closest to it on the aggregate consumption function. Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking Based on the models described above, latent demand figures are estimated for all countries of the world, including for the smallest economies. These are then aggregated to get world totals and regional totals. To make the numbers more meaningful, regional and global demand averages are presented. Figures are rounded, so minor inconsistencies may exist across tables. Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report also covers the world’s top 2000 cities. The purpose is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. Similar to country-level data, the reader needs to realize that latent demand allocated to a city may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, again, the category “satellite launch vehicles.” Clearly, there are no launch pads in most cities of the world. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by residents or industries within the worlds cities. Without certain cities, in other words, the world market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to regions, countries and cities. This report takes the broader definition and considers, therefore, a city as a part of the global market. I allocate latent demand across areas of dominant influence based on the relative economic importance of cities within its home country, within its region and across the world total. Not all cities are estimated within each country as demand may be allocated to adjacent areas of influence. Since some cities have higher economic wealth than others within the same country, a city’s population is not generally used to allocate latent demand. Rather, the level of economic activity of the city vis-à-vis others.

1 INTRODUCTION 10 1.1 Overview 10 1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 10 1.3 The Methodology 11 1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 12 1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 15 1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 15 1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 16 1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 16 1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 17 1.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 17 2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 18 2.1 The Worldwide Market Potential 18 3 AFRICA 20 3.1 Executive Summary 20 3.2 Algeria 21 3.3 Angola 22 3.4 Benin 23 3.5 Botswana 23 3.6 Burkina Faso 24 3.7 Burundi 25 3.8 Cameroon 25 3.9 Cape Verde 26 3.10 Central African Republic 27 3.11 Chad 27 3.12 Comoros 28 3.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 29 3.14 Cote dIvoire 30 3.15 Djibouti 30 3.16 Egypt 31 3.17 Equatorial Guinea 32 3.18 Ethiopia 32 3.19 Gabon 33 3.20 Ghana 34 3.21 Guinea 34 3.22 Guinea-Bissau 35 3.23 Kenya 36 3.24 Lesotho 37 3.25 Liberia 37 3.26 Libya 38 3.27 Madagascar 39 3.28 Malawi 39 3.29 Mali 40 3.30 Mauritania 41 3.31 Mauritius 41 3.32 Morocco 42 3.33 Mozambique 43 3.34 Namibia 43 3.35 Niger 44 3.36 Nigeria 45 3.37 Republic of Congo 46 3.38 Reunion 46 3.39 Rwanda 47 3.40 Sao Tome E Principe 48 3.41 Senegal 48 3.42 Sierra Leone 49 3.43 Somalia 50 3.44 South Africa 50 3.45 Sudan 51 3.46 Swaziland 52 3.47 Tanzania 52 3.48 The Gambia 53 3.49 Togo 54 3.50 Tunisia 54 3.51 Uganda 55 3.52 Western Sahara 56 3.53 Zambia 56 3.54 Zimbabwe 57 4 ASIA 59 4.1 Executive Summary 59 4.2 Bangladesh 60 4.3 Bhutan 61 4.4 Brunei 62 4.5 Burma 62 4.6 Cambodia 63 4.7 China 64 4.8 Hong Kong 65 4.9 India 65 4.10 Indonesia 66 4.11 Japan 67 4.12 Laos 68 4.13 Macau 69 4.14 Malaysia 70 4.15 Maldives 71 4.16 Mongolia 71 4.17 Nepal 72 4.18 North Korea 73 4.19 Papua New Guinea 74 4.20 Philippines 74 4.21 Seychelles 75 4.22 Singapore 76 4.23 South Korea 76 4.24 Sri Lanka 77 4.25 Taiwan 78 4.26 Thailand 79 4.27 Vietnam 79 5 EUROPE 81 5.1 Executive Summary 81 5.2 Albania 82 5.3 Andorra 83 5.4 Austria 84 5.5 Belarus 85 5.6 Belgium 86 5.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 87 5.8 Bulgaria 87 5.9 Croatia 88 5.10 Cyprus 89 5.11 Czech Republic 89 5.12 Denmark 90 5.13 Estonia 91 5.14 Finland 92 5.15 France 93 5.16 Georgia 94 5.17 Germany 94 5.18 Greece 95 5.19 Hungary 96 5.20 Iceland 97 5.21 Ireland 97 5.22 Italy 98 5.23 Kazakhstan 99 5.24 Latvia 100 5.25 Liechtenstein 100 5.26 Lithuania 101 5.27 Luxembourg 102 5.28 Malta 102 5.29 Moldova 103 5.30 Monaco 104 5.31 Norway 104 5.32 Poland 105 5.33 Portugal 106 5.34 Romania 106 5.35 Russia 107 5.36 San Marino 108 5.37 Slovakia 109 5.38 Slovenia 109 5.39 Spain 110 5.40 Sweden 111 5.41 Switzerland 112 5.42 The Netherlands 113 5.43 The United Kingdom 114 5.44 Ukraine 115 6 LATIN AMERICA 117 6.1 Executive Summary 117 6.2 Argentina 118 6.3 Belize 119 6.4 Bolivia 120 6.5 Brazil 120 6.6 Chile 121 6.7 Colombia 122 6.8 Costa Rica 123 6.9 Ecuador 124 6.10 El Salvador 125 6.11 French Guiana 125 6.12 Guatemala 126 6.13 Guyana 127 6.14 Honduras 127 6.15 Mexico 128 6.16 Nicaragua 129 6.17 Panama 130 6.18 Paraguay 131 6.19 Peru 132 6.20 Suriname 133 6.21 The Falkland Islands 133 6.22 Uruguay 134 6.23 Venezuela 135 7 NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN 136 7.1 Executive Summary 136 7.2 Antigua and Barbuda 137 7.3 Aruba 138 7.4 Barbados 139 7.5 Bermuda 139 7.6 Canada 140 7.7 Cuba 141 7.8 Dominica 142 7.9 Dominican Republic 142 7.10 Greenland 143 7.11 Grenada 144 7.12 Guadeloupe 145 7.13 Haiti 146 7.14 Jamaica 146 7.15 Martinique 147 7.16 Puerto Rico 148 7.17 St. Kitts and Nevis 149 7.18 St. Lucia 149 7.19 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 150 7.20 The Bahamas 151 7.21 The British Virgin Islands 151 7.22 The Cayman Islands 152 7.23 The Netherlands Antilles 153 7.24 The U.S. Virgin Islands 153 7.25 The United States 154 7.26 Trinidad and Tobago 155 8 OCEANA 157 8.1 Executive Summary 157 8.2 American Samoa 158 8.3 Australia 159 8.4 Christmas Island 160 8.5 Cook Islands 160 8.6 Fiji 161 8.7 French Polynesia 162 8.8 Guam 162 8.9 Kiribati 163 8.10 Marshall Islands 164 8.11 Micronesia Federation 164 8.12 Nauru 165 8.13 New Caledonia 166 8.14 New Zealand 166 8.15 Niue 167 8.16 Norfolk Island 168 8.17 Palau 168 8.18 Solomon Islands 169 8.19 The Northern Mariana Island 170 8.20 Tokelau 170 8.21 Tonga 171 8.22 Tuvalu 171 8.23 Vanuatu 172 8.24 Wallis and Futuna 173 8.25 Western Samoa 173 9 THE MIDDLE EAST 175 9.1 Executive Summary 175 9.2 Afghanistan 176 9.3 Armenia 177 9.4 Azerbaijan 178 9.5 Bahrain 179 9.6 Iran 180 9.7 Iraq 181 9.8 Israel 182 9.9 Jordan 182 9.10 Kuwait 183 9.11 Kyrgyzstan 184 9.12 Lebanon 184 9.13 Oman 185 9.14 Pakistan 186 9.15 Palestine 187 9.16 Qatar 187 9.17 Saudi Arabia 188 9.18 Syrian Arab Republic 189 9.19 Tajikistan 190 9.20 The United Arab Emirates 190 9.21 Turkey 191 9.22 Turkmenistan 192 9.23 Uzbekistan 192 9.24 Yemen 193 10 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 195 10.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 195 10.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 196

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