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Breast Cancer Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds
Espicom Business Intelligence Ltd, Dec 2008, Pages: 200
Unique market share sales forecasts by product to 2014
The breast cancer (BC) market is a steadily growing market due to effective treatments which have decreased mortality and resulted in a longer duration of therapy. The five-year survival rates for women with BC have increased from under 70% 50 years ago to around 90% now. In 2007, we estimate that sales grew by 22% compared to 2006, generating revenue of over US$11.3 billion. Branded therapies were responsible for 92% of this total (US$10.5 billion).
In 2007, approximately 47% of BC sales were derived from the US, with 41% in Europe and 12% in Japan. Over the next six years we forecast that novel therapies including targeted monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule inhibitors, will increasingly be used in combination with chemotherapy and hormonal therapy.
The corporate landscape
Already the dominant force, throughout the next six to seven years Roche will continue to go from strength to strength, increasing its market share as its existing and future targeted therapies penetrate the BC market successfully. We believe the combination of Herceptin and pertuzumab has the potential to become the new standard of care in HER2-positive metastatic BC. Many of the existing players will be hit by generic competition over the coming 5 years, AstraZeneca, Novartis and sanofiaventis being notable.
Understand the prospects for this US$11.3 billion sector.
All change in the BC market. The growing success of biologicals will be aided by generic competition to many first-line therapies. But pricing policy will be critical in keeping health payers onside.
Globally, BC is the second most common cancer after lung cancer and the most common cancer for women. It exceeds lung cancer as the most common cause of death from cancer in women. The BC market was estimated to be worth around US$11.3 billion in 2007, with a growth rate of 22% year-on-year.
MARKET DRIVERS
Improved diagnosis: Improvements in screening have helped lead to a reduction in mortality rates. New imaging modalities and pathology techniques (response to therapy) are being applied to improve diagnosis and determine the most appropriate treatment option. Whilst tests are readily available, their application varies considerably in Europe and the US. For example, only around 20% of patients obtain a HER2 test in the UK versus over 80% in Germany and the US.
Optimisation of current therapies: Surgery/radiation/chemotherapy and hormonal therapy. Long-term clinical trials evaluating the use of mono-and combination therapies are beginning to establish optimal treatment regimes for early to advanced BC.
Market extension: Availability of chemotherapeutic/hormonal agents to the racial and ethnic minorities.
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
Curative treatment: There is a lack of curative agents and in the advanced stages of the disease a high proportion, around 30%, of patients face recurrence.
Drug resistance: There remains a significant need to improve current therapies where drug resistance develops against cytotoxic and hormonal therapies; for example, between 25-35% of patients develop resistance to Nolvadex (tamoxifen). Several companies are evaluating drugs that may be used in combination with current therapies to avoid the development of drug resistance.
Efficacy and tolerability: One of the major issues with current therapies, particularly cytotoxic agents, is the issue of toxicity which limits their long-term use and affects patients’ quality of life. The launch of new products with improved specificity and tolerability would significantly drive drug sales growth. Several companies are developing drugs which target specific cancer sub-types and that are highly specific.
Improvements in identifying patients: Biomarkers may help to identify which patients are most likely to respond to treatment through the identification of specific biomarkers and development of molecular diagnostic tests.
By 2014, targeted cancer treatments will command 49% of the market by value.
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