The Future of European Discounters 2008
Verdict Research Limited, November 2008, Pages: 228
European Discounters 2008 analyses the market conditions in the wake of the credit crunch in key EU markets. The report profiles the top operators in the market including Aldi, Lidl, Biedronka, Penny, Dia, Netto and Leaderprice/Franpix and gives strategic advice and recommendations how to counter the discounter threat.
Scope
- Proprietary data on market value, discounters sales and growth 2003 -2008f for each of the 27 EU countries.
- Key data on total expenditure, selling space, store numbers, sales densities and per capita expenditure for each of the 27 EU countries.
- Extensive profiles of the major EU discounters, data on sales densities, space and store portfolio analysis, retail proposition and analysis.
- Chapters on five core European markets and detailed strategic analysis of discounter business models and reactions to the discounter threat
Highlights
For discounters the recession represents a once in a lifetime opportunity in the UK and the US. We believe that now is the time for the likes of Aldi, Lidl and Netto to pounce. As these players widen their store portfolio and the discounter network as a whole they will further drive sales through the channel.
The discounters now need to accomplish two strategic objectives. Firstly, they must raise as much finance as possible to aggressively drive expansion into markets where they are underrepresented. Secondly the players have to continue their efforts to innovate and to further update the store model and their product ranges.
To incumbent non-discount retailers the threat is real. Usually the various players adopt one of four strategies in a response to the discounter threat or a combination thereof. Reponses include relaunching the private label range, starting a price war, format development and acquiring a discounter.
Reasons to Purchase
- Learn how difficult market conditions are driving sales at the discounters and what the outlook for EU discounters will be in the short to mid-term.
- Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop new strategies to counter the discounters.
- Identify the success stories and growth prospects of the key players and learn about their performance in other markets.
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Findings
Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 EUROPEAN MARKET – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Key Findings (based on Eurostat data 07/08)
Main Messages
GDP
Consumer Expenditure
Inflation
Interest Rates
Employment
CHAPTER 3 EUROPEAN MARKET – DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW
Key Findings
Main Messages
Trends
Growth by Country
Age Breakdown
Consequences for Retailers
Households
Urban Population
CHAPTER 4 EUROPEAN MARKET – RETAIL SPENDING
Expenditure
Growth
Per Capita
Retail Share
CHAPTER 5 DISCOUNT RETAILING IN THE EU
Definition
Sales
Space
Sales Densities
Store Numbers
Store Size
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
CHAPTER 6 STRATEGIC ISSUES
State We Are In
Inflation
Brief History of Grocery Discounters
Discount Evolution in Germany
Stretching Into Non-food
Strategy Differences
Hard vs Soft
Pace of Expansion
Financial Success
Opportunities for the discounters
Redefining Store Concepts
Lidl Express, Edmonton, UK
Value of Property
Convenience Trend
Green Retailing
Internationalisation
International Presence
When the Model Doesn’t Work
Lidl Fails in Baltics
Lidl Fails in Norway
Lidl Fails Employees
Non-food a Common Problem Area
Other Grocery Retailers React
Strategy 1: Format Diversification
Strategy 2: Acquire a Discounter – Break-up of Plus
Strategy 3: Ramp Up Private Label
Strategy 4: Start a Price War
… Where Strategies Failed
1: Running Own Discount Operation
2: Private Label Range Innovation, Extension and Relaunch
3: Price War
CHAPTER 7 COMPANY COMPARISONS
Overview
CHAPTER 8 ALDI
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Sales Performance
Benchmarks
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 9 BIEDRONKA
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Sales Performance
Benchmarks
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 10 DIA
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Sales Performance
Benchmarks
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 11 LEADER PRICE/FRANPRIX
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Sales Performance
Benchmarks
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 12 NETTO
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Sales Performance
Benchmarks
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 13 PENNY
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Sales Performance
Benchmarks
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 14 SCHWARZ GRUPPE
Company Overview
Recent Key Developments
Benchmarks
Sales Performance
Store Portfolio
Outlook
CHAPTER 15 GLOSSARY
Definitions
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Consequences of population change for retailers 2008-2018
Table 2: EU Top Six retail expenditure 2002-2007e
Table 3: EU Top Six retail expenditure growth 2002-2007
Table 4: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn+) 2002-2007e
Table 5: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn+) growth 2002-2007e
Table 6: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn-) 2002-2007e
Table 7: EU retail expenditure (€30.0bn-) growth 2002-2007e
Table 8: EU Discounter sales by country 2003-2008e
Table 9: EU Discounter sales growth y-o-y by country 2003-08e
Table 10: % share of EU discounter sales of total grocery by country 2003 & 2008e
Table 11: Discounters selling space by country 2003-2008e
Table 12: Grocery discounters space growth by country 2003-2008
Table 13: Discounter store numbers by country 2003-2008e
Table 14: EU discounters store number growth by country 2003-2008e
Table 15: Grocery discounting in France 2003-2008e
Table 16: Discounting in Germany 2003-2008e
Table 17: Grocery discounting in Italy 2003-2008e
Table 18: Grocery discounting in Spain 2003-2008e
Table 19: Grocery discounting in the UK 2003-2008e
Table 20: Leading European discounters sales 2007
Table 21: Leading European discounters market shares 2007
Table 22: Leading European discounters sales densities 2006 & 2007
Table 23: Aldi company overview 2008
Table 24: Aldi trading record 2002-2007e
Table 25: Aldi benchmarks 2006 & 2007
Table 26: Aldi store estate 2008e
Table 27: Aldi selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007
Table 28: Biedronka company overview 2008
Table 29: Biedronka trading record 2002-2008e
Table 30: Biedronka benchmarks 2006 & 2007
Table 31: Biedronka store estate and selling space 2006 & 2007
Table 32: Biedronka store and selling space development 2002-2007
Table 33: Dia company overview 2008
Table 34: Dia consolidated sales including VAT by country 2002-2007
Table 35: Dia benchmarks 2006 & 2007
Table 36: Dia European store portfolio 2007
Table 37: Dia consolidated European store and selling space development 2002-2007
Table 38: Leader Price/Franprix company overview 2008
Table 39: Leader Price/Franprix trading record 2002-2007
Table 40: Leader Price/Franprix benchmarks 2006 & 2007
Table 41: Leader Price/Franprix store portfolio 2002-2007
Table 42: Leader Price/ Franprix selling space development 2002-2007
Table 43: Netto company overview 2008
Table 44: Netto turnover record 2002-2008e
Table 45: Netto benchmarks 2006 & 2007e
Table 46: Netto store portfolio 2006 & 2007e
Table 47: Netto selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007
Table 48: Penny company overview 2008
Table 49: Penny turnover record 2002-2007
Table 50: Penny benchmarks 2006 & 2007e
Table 51: Penny store portfolio 2003-2007
Table 52: Penny selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007
Table 53: Schwarz Gruppe company overview 2008
Table 54: Schwarz Gruppe benchmarks 2006 & 2007
Table 55: Schwarz Gruppe estimated trading record 2002-2007
Table 56: Schwarz Gruppe store portfolio 2006 & 2007
Table 57: Schwarz Gruppe selling space and store numbers 2006 & 2007
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2007
Figure 2: GDP growth forecast of Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009e
Figure 3: GDP: Other 17 countries in European Union (€100bn+) 2007
Figure 4: GDP growth forecast of other 17 European Union countries (€100bn+) 2008 & 2009
Figure 5: GDP: Other 17 countries in European Union (€100bn-) 2007
Figure 6: GDP growth forecast of other 17 European Union countries (€100bn-) 2008 & 2009
Figure 7: Consumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007
Figure 8: Consumer expenditure: Other 17 countries in EU (€50bn+) 2007
Figure 9: Consumer expenditure: Other 17 countries in EU (€50bn-) 2007
Figure 10: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices – growth of Top 10 EU countries 2006 & 2007
Figure 11: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices – growth of other 17 EU countries (3.0%+) 2006 & 2007
Figure 12: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices – growth of other 17 EU countries (3.0%-) 2006 & 2007
Figure 13: Central bank interest rates, official average lending rates 2007
Figure 14: ECB interest rates 2002-2008
Figure 15: Total unemployment rates of Top 10 EU countries 2002 & 2007
Figure 16: Total unemployment rates of other 17 EU countries (6.0%+) 2002 & 2007
Figure 17: Total unemployment rates of other 17 EU countries (6.0%-) 2002 & 2007
Figure 18: 10-year trends in total EU population growth 2008-2048e
Figure 19: EU population totals (000) by country 2008
Figure 20: Forecast population growth (%) for the Top 10 countries in EU by GDP – 2018 on 2008
Figure 21: Forecast population growth (%) for other EU countries 2018 on 2008
Figure 22: Comparison of EU age groups 2008 & 2018
Figure 23: Top 10 EU countries by GDP – household numbers 2005
Figure 24: Other EU countries household numbers 2005
Figure 25: Top 10 EU countries by GDP – average household size in 2005
Figure 26: Other EU countries average household size in 2005
Figure 27: Comparison of EU countries by urban population % – Top 10 EU countries by GDP – 2007
Figure 28: Comparison of EU countries by urban population % – Other EU countries – 2007
Figure 29: EU27 retail spend and change % 2002-2007
Figure 30: Ten CEE new member states retail spend and change % 2002-2007
Figure 31: Growth in EU 27 retail spend by country 2007 on 2002
Figure 32: EU per capita retail spend 2002-2007
Figure 33: EU27 per capita retail spend by country 2007
Figure 34: EU retail spend as % of total consumer expenditure 2002 & 2007
Figure 35: EU Discounters sales per capita 2008
Figure 36: Discounters five-year sales growth by country 2003-08
Figure 37: Grocery discounters sales densities (€ per sq m) 2008
Figure 38: Discounters sales densities % change 2008 on 2003
Figure 39: Grocery discounters average store size by country 2008
Figure 40: El Corte Inglés low-cost range Aliada
Figure 41: Big Four main users shopping at discounters 2007 & 2008
Figure 42: Annual inflation (%) in EU 27, August 2008
Figure 43: Success factors for Aldi 2007
Figure 44: Tedi, Düsseldorf 2007
Figure 45: Aldi Nord, Denmark 2008
Figure 46: Lidl Express, Edmonton, 2008
Figure 47: Lidl Express, Edmonton, 2008
Figure 48: Lidl Express, Edmonton, 2008
Figure 49: Household number growth and drivers 2008
Figure 50: Basic, Düsseldorf 2007
Figure 51: EU presence of seven discounters by country 2007/08
Figure 52: Lidl’s three failures 2008
Figure 53: Other grocery retailers reactions to the discounter threat 2008
Figure 54: Tengelmann’s Plus divestment in the EU 2007/08
Figure 55: Tesco’s Discount brand 2008
Figure 56: Tesco’s Discount brand 2008
Figure 57: Carrefour private label, Calais, 2008
Figure 58: Leader Price’s Le Prix Gagnant brand revamp
Figure 59: Leader Price’s Le Prix Gagnant value line 2008
- Aldi
- Lidl
- Biedronka
- Penny
- Dia
- Netto
- Leaderprice/Franpix
- Schwarz Gruppe
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