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Analysis of China Coal Industry 2008
China Market Report, Dec 2008, Pages: 33
In 2008, the inventory of Chinese raw coal has been increased gradually because of the rising growth of the output continuously and the rapid decreasing demands from the downstream industries.
During Jan-Sep 2008, the total output of raw coal in China was 1.93 billion tons, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year, the output of September was 229 million tons, up 10.8% year-on-year, the growth of coal production has been continued to maintain a rapid growth.
In terms of the pattern of the Chinese raw coal production, after the extremely snowstorm disaster in the first quarter of 2008, the output of the locally state-owned mines and town-owned mines has been increased, but the output of large state-owned mine had dropped from 67% in the first quarter to 53.13% in August, while the proportion of township coal mines of the total output has risen to 35.69% and of locally state-owned mines has dropped by nearly 3 percentage to 11.19 %.
Export and import is one of the factor which has a great impact on the coal supply, in October 2008 the export was 2.56 million tons and the accumulative growth rate declined 11.5% year-on-year, down 5.4 per cent than previous month; October imported 3.49 million tons, the accumulative year-on-year growth declined 15.2%, down 1 per cent than previous month. The net exports of the first 10 months was 2.36 million tons, dropped 37%, though the price of the domestic coal fell, but still slightly expensive than international coal prices, therefore, the net exports will have a further reduction which will affect the domestic supply greatly.
Another factor affects the coal supply is the investment of coal fixed assets and as well as the closure of small coal mines. The fixed assets investment of coal industry in the first 10 months of 2008 was 177.3 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year, down 0.6%, has maintained a relative high growth rates; high investment will lead to large amount of production capacity in future. The current coal market is already oversupply and is expected will continue to keep this circumstance. In terms of the incomplete statistics that in 2008 the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission approved the production capacity of the large-scale coal mines is 90 million tons.
Although the closure of small coal mines are able to improve the concentration of industry and regulating the supply and raise the level of safety in a certain extent, but, on the other hand, it also lead to some conflict between the various interest groups continually. Based on the demand concerns, the circumstance of oversupply will be worsening.
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