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Analysis of China Coal Industry 2008


Description: In 2008, the inventory of Chinese raw coal has been increased gradually because of the rising growth of the output continuously and the rapid decreasing demands from the downstream industries.

During Jan-Sep 2008, the total output of raw coal in China was 1.93 billion tons, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year, the output of September was 229 million tons, up 10.8% year-on-year, the growth of coal production has been continued to maintain a rapid growth.

In terms of the pattern of the Chinese raw coal production, after the extremely snowstorm disaster in the first quarter of 2008, the output of the locally state-owned mines and town-owned mines has been increased, but the output of large state-owned mine had dropped from 67% in the first quarter to 53.13% in August, while the proportion of township coal mines of the total output has risen to 35.69% and of locally state-owned mines has dropped by nearly 3 percentage to 11.19 %.

Export and import is one of the factor which has a great impact on the coal supply, in October 2008 the export was 2.56 million tons and the accumulative growth rate declined 11.5% year-on-year, down 5.4 per cent than previous month; October imported 3.49 million tons, the accumulative year-on-year growth declined 15.2%, down 1 per cent than previous month. The net exports of the first 10 months was 2.36 million tons, dropped 37%, though the price of the domestic coal fell, but still slightly expensive than international coal prices, therefore, the net exports will have a further reduction which will affect the domestic supply greatly.

Another factor affects the coal supply is the investment of coal fixed assets and as well as the closure of small coal mines. The fixed assets investment of coal industry in the first 10 months of 2008 was 177.3 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year, down 0.6%, has maintained a relative high growth rates; high investment will lead to large amount of production capacity in future. The current coal market is already oversupply and is expected will continue to keep this circumstance. In terms of the incomplete statistics that in 2008 the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission approved the production capacity of the large-scale coal mines is 90 million tons.

Although the closure of small coal mines are able to improve the concentration of industry and regulating the supply and raise the level of safety in a certain extent, but, on the other hand, it also lead to some conflict between the various interest groups continually. Based on the demand concerns, the circumstance of oversupply will be worsening.


Contents: 1 Supply
1.1 Production
1.2 Production pattern of various types of coal mine
1.3 Import and Export
1.4 Investment of fixed assets and closure of small coal mines

2 The major impacts on coal consumption
2.1 The decline of thermal Power growth
2.2 The negative growth of steel production

3 The rising inventory of coal
3.1 The inventory in transfer section
3.2 The inventory in harbours
3.3 The impact on railway transport.

4 The price of coking coal
4.1 The impact of the price of iron ore and steel
4.2 The dramatically fall of the price of coking coal and jetting coal
4.3 The scarcity of resources will support the long-term coking coal price rise.

5 The price of steam coal
5.1 The decreasing demands from power sector
5.2 Analysis of the Hang Hau price of steam coal
5.3 Analysis of the prices of various kinds of coal of major listed companies
5.4 The spot prices of stream coal will continue to decline

6 Coal prices are still expected to fall

Figure index

The monthly output and growth rate of China’s raw coal 2005-2008
The accumulative output and growth rate of China’s raw coal 2005-2008
The monthly output and growth rate of China’s town-owned mines’ raw coal 2005-2008
The monthly output and growth rate of China’s locally state-owned mines’ raw coal 2005-2008
The production pattern of China's coal production
The coal exports and year-on-year growth rate
The Coal imports and year-on-year growth rate
The growth of fixed asset investment of coal industry
The growth of China’s thermal power generation
The total generated energy and the proportion of thermal power
The elastic modulus of electricity production
Comparison of the industrial prospect between coal and steel industry 2002-2008
The monthly output and year-on-year growth of China pig iron industry 2007-2008
The monthly output and year-on-year growth of China coke industry 2007-2008
The total inventory of China coal 2005-2008
The total mines’ inventory and growth 2002-2008
The total power plant’s inventory and growth of coal 2005-2008
The inventory days of coal of power plant 2005-2008
The inventory and growth of coal of major harbours 2003-2008
The inventory of coal of Qinhuangdao harbour 2006-2008
The relationship between steel and its raw materials
Comparison of the price between steel and coke
The rail shipments and year-on-year growth
The price of Yangquan jetting coal
Proportion of various kinds of coal
Comparison of the coke output between state-owned mines and local small mines
The growth of income and profit of thermal power plants 2003-2008
The cost, profit rate and gross profit rate of thermal power 2003-2008
The monthly coal consumption and growth of national power plants 2006-2008
The accumulative coal consumption and growth of national power plants 2006-2008
The Hang Hau price of Shangxi’s steam coal 2006-2008
The price of Shangxi’s steam coal in Qinghuangdao harbour 2000-2008
The Hang Hau price of Datong weak caking coal
The prices of Yuling’s steam coal and Dongshen’s refined coal
The price of Shuozhou’s gas coal and range coal
The price of Yanzhou’s mixed coal and steam coal
The price of Australia coal and Datong high quality coal
The price of Australian coal and new York crude oil

Table index

The list of new large-scale mines of 2008
Comparison of the heat value between crude oil and coal




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