Kazakhstan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008

Kazakhstan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Kazakhstan’s pharmaceutical market has emerged as one of the more promising prospects within the Emerging Europe region. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix for Q408, Kazakhstan moved up from 15 (out of 17 markets surveyed in the region) to joint 11th position, alongside the more established market of Slovakia. While the country is disadvantaged by low per capita spend on medicine and the lack of universal reimbursement, the forecast growth of its pharmaceutical market (at a CAGR of over 1935% in US dollar terms) makes for a very attractive proposition.

The above view is supported by the recently published data by the Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Herald, which show that retail sales grew by 33% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H108 to US$388.3mn. In the same period, volume of packs sold rose by 43% to 252.5mn. While the figures are above BMI’s estimates, our calculations are reinforced by sales data from the Association of International Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Russia (AIPM) and Research Marketing & Business Consulting Company (RMBC). AIPM/RMBC figures showed hospital sales increasing 18% y-o-y in Q108, while retail sales increased 17%, suggesting a possible slowdown in the latter segment.

The top three drugs by sales reported by the Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Herald were Nycomed’s Actovegin (deproteinised calf blood derivative), Novartis’ over-the-counter (OTC) flu treatment Theraflu (acetaminophen + chlorpheniramine + dextromethorphan + phenylephrine + pheniramine + diphenhydramine + guaifenesin) and Berlin-Chemie/Menarini’s Mezim forte (mixture of digestive enzymes). The above information is indicative of the import-dependent market, with the domestic industry only meeting 10% of the local demand, as well as the high market penetration of OTCs, in the absence of a comprehensive reimbursement system.

The high cost of healthcare system modernisation will continue to drive the development of the OTC market, as the government seeks measures for containing healthcare as well as pharmaceutical costs. Given that hospitals remain a key point of access for much of the population, the government’s recently announced creation of a centralised system for drug distribution comes as no surprise. The new system, due to cover up to 80% of all drugs supplied to hospitals, will mean that a single company will reap considerable benefits in terms of volume, although values are likely to suffer in the face of anticipated lower tendering prices. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary

Kazakhstan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT

Kazakhstan Political SWOT

Kazakhstan Economic SWOT

Kazakhstan – Business Environment Ranking
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Business Environment Rankings

Limits Of Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Kazakhstan – Market Summary

Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Environment

Counterfeit Drugs

Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
Table: Price Components And Add-Ons For Imported And Locally Produced Generic Medicines (KZT)

Recent Pricing And Reimbursement Developments

Industry Developments

Epidemiology

Healthcare Sector
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Value Of Hospital Purchases
Table: Top 10 INNs by Value of Hospital Purchases

Healthcare Sector Financing
Table: Top 10 ATC Groups by Value of Hospital Purchases
Table: Top 10 ATC Groups by Retail Pharmacy Sales

Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry

Recent Domestic Industry Developments

Wholesale And Retail

Recent Wholesale And Retail Developments

Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
Table: Indo-Kazakh Trade Figures, 1999-2003 (US$mn)

Recent Foreign Industry Developments
Table: Pharmaniaga’s Key Products

Medical Devices
Table Medical Devices Market In Kazakhstan, 2003-2005 (US$mn)

Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast
Table: Kazakhstan’s Drug Expenditure Indicators, 2004-2012

Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Kazakhstan’s Health Expenditure Indicators, 2004-2012

Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Kazakhstan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2012

Prescription Market Forecast
Table: Kazakhstan’s Prescription Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (KZTmn unless otherwise stated)

OTC Market Forecast
Table: Kazakhstan’s OTC Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (KZTmn unless otherwise stated)

Patented Market Forecast
Table: Kazakhstan’s Patented Drug Market Indicators, 2004-2012

Generics Market Forecast
Table: Kazakhstan’s Generics Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (KZTmn unless otherwise stated)

Export/Import Market Forecasts
Table: Kazakhstan’s Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, 2004-2012 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Table Retail Sales Structure Of Imports By Pharmaceutical Subgroups, 2006
Table: Top 15 Distributors By Value Importing Pharmaceuticals Into Kazakhstan, 2006
Table: Top 15 Distributors By Volume Importing Pharmaceuticals Into Kazakhstan, 2006

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Table: Kazakhstan’s Other Healthcare Data, 2004-2012

Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Competitive Landscape
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Retail Pharmacy Sales
Table: Top 10 Trade Names by Value of Retail Pharmacy Sales

Company Monitor

Foreign Companies

- Novartis (Sandoz)
- Sanofi-Aventis
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Nycomed
- Merck & Co
- Pfizer
- Ranbaxy

Indigenous Companies

- Chimpharm
- Romat FK

Country Snapshot: Kazakhstan Demographic Data

Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030

Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts

Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology

Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators

Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components

Sources

- Novartis (Sandoz)
- Sanofi-Aventis
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Nycomed
- Merck & Co
- Pfizer
- Ranbaxy
- Chimpharm
- Romat FK