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Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2009


Description: This Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

The Croatian pharmaceutical market is estimated to be worth around US$1bn, with the figure expected to reach US$1.23bn by the end of 2013, representing an average annual growth of 7% in local currency terms. However, Croatia remains one of the least attractive investment destinations in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with BMI’s Business Environment Ranking (BER) matrix for Q109 placing the country in the joint 15th position, alongside Ukraine, out of the 18 regional markets, which now include Uzbekistan.

Apart from the modest population numbers and GDP per capita, other key issues include amassed healthcare debts in the state sector and the massive delays in payments to hospitals and pharmacies, which in turn struggle to meet their obligations to drugmakers and wholesalers. The government is, however, making efforts to address healthcare system shortcomings. To this end, in October 2008, Croatia's Ministry of Health pledged to introduce a combination of merging regional waiting lists and procuring additional services from the private sector in order to address the issue of long waiting lists. While the scheme initially offers limited foreign investment opportunities for large private healthcare firms, as local healthcare providers are likely to compete for the service contracts, foreign manufacturers and importers of medical devices should reap the benefits.

In the meantime, healthcare funding – especially in the light of widespread corruption and bribery – will continue to play a vital role in terms of reform progress.
In terms of wider economic climate, Croatia is likely to experience a soft landing, unlike its major trading partners in Western Europe. Real GDP growth over our five-year forecast period will average 3.4%, which will underpin long-term convergence with the eurozone. Additionally, we maintain our core view that Croatia's inflation is set to lower over the medium term, as the kuna strengthens and as global commodity prices are reduced.

This slower growth climate will be primarily caused by lower real consumer spending growth and the slowing pace of credit expansion within the local economy, although the forecast growth of Croatia’s pharmaceutical market is expected to top that of its GDP.
The past quarter has been less dynamic in terms of company news. However, the August 2008 announcement of H108 financial results for Pliva, the largest pharmaceutical concern in the country, illustrates that the months ahead will be challenging. While the company’s massive reduction in total turnover was mostly attributed to a range of positive influences during H107, including its sale to US major Barr, the like-for-like increase in turnover was only 2%. The company also reported a net loss of HRK102mn (US$20mn), as the economic problems and payment delays continue to take their toll.


Contents: Executive Summary 5
Croatia Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT 6
Croatia Political SWOT 7
Croatia Economic SWOT 7
Croatia Business Environment SWOT 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 9
Table: Regional Pharma Business Environment Ratings 9
Limits Of Potential Returns 10
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 11
Croatia – Market Summary 12
Regulatory Regime 13
Table: Croatian Product Approvals, 2006 14
Intellectual Property Regime 14
Pricing Regime 16
Reimbursement Regime 16
Recent Pricing And Reimbursement Developments 17
Table: Recently Approved Medicines In Croatia 17
Industry Trends And Developments 19
Epidemiology 19
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In Croatia, 2005 19
Healthcare Provision 20
Healthcare Expenditure 20
Healthcare Debts 21
Healthcare Reforms 22
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 23
Domestic Company Activity 24
Foreign Company Activities 25
Table: Lukaps’ Time Line 26
Pharmaceutical Retail 26
Research And Development Sector 27
Medical Devices 28
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Overall Market Forecast 30
Table: Croatia – Drug Expenditure Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 31
Key Growth Factors – Industry 31
Table: Croatia – Health Expenditure Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 32
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 33
Table: Economic Activity 35
Prescription Market Forecast 36
Table: Croatia – Prescription Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 38
OTC Market Forecast 39
Table: Croatia – OTC Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 40
Patented Market Forecast 41
Table: Croatia – Patented Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 42
Generics Market Forecast 43
Table: Croatia – Generics Market Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 44
Export/Import Forecasts 45
Table: Croatia – Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, 2004-2013 (HRKmn unless otherwise stated) 45
Other Healthcare Forecasts 46
Table: Croatia – Other Healthcare Indicators, 2004-2013 46
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Company Monitor 49
International Company Profiles 49
GlaxoSmithKline 49
Pfizer 50
Sanofi-Aventis 51
Novartis 52
Merck & Co 53
Krka 54
Indigenous Company Profiles 55
Pliva 55
Belupo 58
Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data 61
Section 1: Population 61
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 61
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 62
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 62
Table: Education, 2000-2003 62
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 62
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 63
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 63
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) 64
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010 64
BMI Forecast Modelling 65
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 65
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology 66
Ratings Overview 66
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 67
Weighting 68
Table: Weighting Of Components 68
Sources 68


Companies Mentioned GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Merck & Co, Krka, Pliva, Belupo


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